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Business/Finance
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Title: The end of the world has already begun
Source: [None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Nov 8, 2015
Author: Bill Bonner
Post Date: 2015-11-08 07:05:32 by BTP Holdings
Keywords: None
Views: 67
Comments: 5

Since the end of World War II, credit has been expanding in the U.S.

At first it was a healthy expansion. Young, middle-class families took out mortgages and ran up bills on “charge cards,” such as Diners Club and American Express.

Then in the late 1950s came the first credit cards. This was accompanied by large increases in consumer credit.

Until the 1970s, all was well because wages were rising, too. And with so much new technology coming online, people believed their wages could only increase.

Debt was no problem—neither for the nation nor for households. We’d “grow our way out of it.”

But a strange—and not fully understood—new trend began in the 1970s. After accounting for inflation, incomes for most Americans dramatically tapered off.

The economy was slowing, too, after taking the effects of inflation into account.

At first this was thought to be temporary—a fluke perhaps caused by the 1973 oil crisis. But the trend toward lower economic growth continued. Decade after decade, the trend in GDP growth was down. In most parts of the U.S., GDP per person peaked in the 1970s or 1980s.

Remarkably, the average American working man earns less today than he did a half-century ago (again, accounting for changes in consumer price inflation).

That’s not the same as saying a person with a good job earns less today than he did in the 1960s. According to Census Bureau figures, the average inflation-adjusted wage for Americans in the top 5% of earners is up by more than 75% since 1967. Women earn a lot more, too.

But good jobs have become scarce. The labor participation rate—the percentage of working-age people who have jobs or are looking for jobs—is at its lowest level since 1977. Image

Debt goes sour

But although economic growth and most people’s incomes slipped, debt (the flip-side of credit) kept growing.

This was Stage II: the unhealthy phase of the credit expansion. No longer backed by broad-based wage increases, debt was expanding beyond the capacity of the economy—and borrowers—to repay it.

We were asking for trouble.

You may be wondering how this was possible. Why would lenders extend credit to people who couldn’t pay it back?

The answer: The fix was in.

In 1971, President Nixon dramatically transformed the global monetary system. Under the previous Bretton Woods system, the dollar was backed by gold. And the major global currencies traded at fixed rates to the dollar... and by extension to gold.

This meant a nation couldn’t get too far into debt... especially when it came to its trading partners.

Trade surplus nations—which amassed dollars in return for net exports to the U.S.—could ask to redeem their dollars in gold. This caused gold to leave the overspending nation and flow to the creditor nation.

That’s how the U.S. got so much gold in the first place. France and Britain spent more than they could afford on World War I. The U.S. sold them food, weapons, and fuel... and demanded gold in repayment.

But by the 1960s, the shoe was on the other foot.

The U.S. started spending money on both “guns and butter”—a Great Society at home and a war in Vietnam.

Much of the spending to fund the war in Vietnam ended up as dollars in the hands of Vietnamese branches of French banks. And when, in 1965, President Charles de Gaulle sent the French navy across the Atlantic to pick up $150 million worth of gold in exchange for dollars, it was greeted like a long-lost relative at the reading of the will.

Finally, with gold being airlifted from Fort Knox to meet foreign demands for payment, rather than honor Washington’s promise to convert dollars to gold, Nixon panicked and defaulted.

Henceforth, anyone holding dollars was on his own...

“Tall Paul” takes over

It all would’ve gone bad very fast. By April 1980, the annual rate of consumer price inflation was running at almost 15%.

Gold soared as high as $800 an ounce. It looked as though Nixon’s new fiat money system would go off the rails soon—as all previous experiments with paper money had.

Instead, in 1979, President Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Fed chairman. Volcker stepped in front of the runaway train and commanded it to halt. And it did...

By January 1981, “Tall Paul” jacked up the federal funds rate—the key lending rate in the economy—not to 2%... or 4%... or even 8%. He set it at 19%—and placed the train squarely on the tracks again.

We remember the howls of discontent. Volcker was “stifling the economy,” said the politicians. He was “killing jobs,” said the newspapers. He was causing “the worst downturn since the Great Depression,” said the economists.

But Volcker didn’t budge. And when Ronald Reagan entered the White House in 1981, he backed Volcker.

Volcker announced his intention to squeeze inflation out of the system soon after he became Fed chairman.

Bonds—which do well when inflation is low—should’ve rallied. Investors should’ve raced to lock in roughly 10% yield available on the 10-year Treasury note.

Instead, bond prices fell... and bond yields rose.

People weren’t aware—or weren’t willing to believe—a major change had occurred. It wasn’t until 1982 that the bond market turned. Finally, investors realized it was a new world.

Volcker saved the system. Bond yields—and interest rates—have been coming down ever since.

Too bad he didn’t save a better system.

Not many men can resist the appeal of free money. Americans proved they were no better at it than others.

Falling interest rates and the paper dollar gave them a way to impoverish themselves—by spending money they hadn’t earned.

They took the opportunity offered to them. They borrowed and spent... and drove the entire world forward at a furious pace.

But now that stage is over.

Reeves’ Note: Bill just released a message about a disturbing event linked to a sudden collapse in our credit system. Today he’s revealing never-before-seen research detailing this threat... and what you can do to protect yourself. Access it here. click.palmbeachgroup.com/...ZD1MYk1UaWkmZz0w./AQ/UCCI

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#1. To: BTP Holdings (#0) (Edited)

The only way out of this mess is a world-wide repudiation of the fake jew-banker debt, and a return to nations issuing their own sovereign currencies. imo

Have the balls to be like Iceland bump

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2015-11-08   11:53:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Lod (#1)

The only way out of this mess is a world-wide repudiation of the fake jew-banker debt, and a return to nations issuing their own sovereign currencies.

Felt that was worth repeating.

I wonder how long it will be until we declare war on Iceland.

"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." - Frederic Bastiat

Southern Style  posted on  2015-11-08   12:54:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Southern Style (#2)

I'm sure Iceland's very happy to have zero proven petroleum reserves. :-)

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2015-11-08   13:11:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Lod (#3)

I'm sure Iceland's very happy to have zero proven petroleum reserves.

They also have zero debt and that is quite enough for the bankers to wage war against them. Add to that, that Iceland is setting a terrible example for the rest of the world to follow (banker thinking, not my own) and I don't believe the bankers will allow this sovereign nation to exist.

"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." - Frederic Bastiat

Southern Style  posted on  2015-11-08   13:22:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Southern Style (#4)

They also have zero debt and that is quite enough for the bankers to wage war against them. Add to that, that Iceland is setting a terrible example for the rest of the world to follow (banker thinking, not my own) and I don't believe the bankers will allow this sovereign nation to exist.

I met a guy from Iceland when I lived in Illinois. They speak several languages there, but the gentleman I knew spoke Norwegian.

From Wikipedia:

Iceland has been a very isolated and linguistically homogeneous island historically, but has nevertheless been home to several languages. Gaelic was native to many of the early Icelanders, the Icelandic or Norse language however prevailing, albeit absorbing Gaelic features. Later, northern trade routes brought German, English, Dutch, French and Basque. Some merchants and clergymen settled in Iceland throughout the centuries, leaving their mark on culture, but linguistically mainly trade, nautical or religious terms. Excluding these and Latin words, Icelandic has altered remarkably little since settlement, the island's residents living in seclusion.

Icelandic is not only the national language, but is now “the official language in Iceland” by virtue of Act No 61/2011, adopted by parliament in 2011.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Iceland

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke

BTP Holdings  posted on  2015-11-08   13:37:08 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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