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Business/Finance See other Business/Finance Articles Title: More Warning Signs on Jobs; Who Stands to Lose? More Warning Signs on Jobs; Who Stands to Lose? Mike Larson | Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 4:30 pm Remember that great American job creation machine? Well, it may just be grinding to a halt! In the past 48 hours … >> The ADP Research Institute reported that the U.S. economy created only 156,000 jobs in April. Not only did that miss forecasts for around 200,000 by a mile, but it was also the worst reading in three years! Manufacturing lost another 13,000 jobs after shedding 3,000 the month before, while virtually every other major industry showed a deceleration in hiring. >> The Labor Department said initial jobless claims surged 17,000 to 274,000 in the week ended April 30. That was the single-biggest weekly jump going all the way back to January 2015! >> The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a whopping 65,141 layoffs in April. That was a 35% surge from March. The year-to-date tally of corporate job cuts is now running at over 250,000, the most going all the way back to 2009. Worrying signs from the job market. We won’t get the “official” monthly jobs data until tomorrow morning. The government’s numbers never track private reports exactly, what with seasonal adjustments and other massaging that goes on. But none of this looks encouraging to me. It also isn’t SURPRISING to me. You see, I’ve been talking for a while now about the major credit-market turn began last summer. And I’ve been talking for a while now about the major economic-growth turn that began in the last few months. Now, I believe the labor market is making ITS next major turn – from falling claims and rising job creation to rising claims and falling job creation. A key reason: This is no longer just an energy story. That’s where the layoffs were the worst in the PAST. But in the FUTURE, they’re going to spread to many other sectors and corners of the economy. “Reality at ground level in the jobs market looks a lot different.” Heck, that’s already starting to happen now, according to Challenger’s CEO. He said today that: “We continue to see large-scale layoffs in the energy sector, where low oil prices are driving down profits. However, we are also seeing heavy downsizing activity in other areas, such as computers and retail, where changing consumer trends are creating a lot of volatility.” I have no doubt we’ll continue to hear happy talk from Wall Street and Washington about how the economy is chugging right along. But reality at ground level in the jobs market looks a lot different. Who’s vulnerable if I’m right? Staffing and placement firms would be at the top of my list. It’s no coincidence that shares of Robert Half (RHI) just tanked by the most in seven years, a move that came amid worries about slowing earnings growth and job-placement rates there. Shares of the executive search and recruiting firm Korn/Ferry (KFY) have been struggling for some time, too, losing more than 17% of their value year-to-date. Another staffing company I’ve been eyeing for a while looks poised on a knife’s edge, too. If you’re interested in learning more, including how to protect your wealth – and profit – from a major turn in the employment market, you can check out my All Weather Trader service. In the meantime, what are your thoughts on the jobs market? Is it still humming along, or grinding to a halt? If you own your own company, are you staffing up here or cutting back? Or if you work at a major firm, what’s happening there on the employment front? Please share any relevant comments or observations below. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
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