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Title: I've built an algorithm that accurately predicts the movement of the price of gold. What should I do with this?
Source: [None]
URL Source: https://www.quora.com/Ive-built-an- ... old-What-should-I-do-with-this
Published: Feb 29, 2016
Author: Christopher Sean Quigley,
Post Date: 2016-10-04 19:35:34 by BTP Holdings
Keywords: None
Views: 656
Comments: 5

I've built an algorithm that accurately predicts the movement of the price of gold. What should I do with this?

Christopher Sean Quigley, I teach economics 101

Updated Feb 29,2016

If you really have such an algorithm, it doesn't make any sense to tell anyone about it or "package and sell it."

If you were to package and sell it, it would be direct evidence that you are lying.

Why? Because if you have found an inefficiency in the market, by telling people it exists, everyone will exploit it and the inefficiency will disappear (that's how economics works, see an econ 101 textbook).

So, telling people about it is a bad idea. I would assume you are lying if you told me about it.

On the other hand, if you didn't tell me how it works, but I saw you driving a nice car in a year from now, with a super model in the seat next to you and crisp Benjamins flying out the trunk because you just don't care anymore, I would believe you.

Edit: Look up: Efficient Market Hypothesis. You will thank me later.

Additional Thoughts: If transaction costs are a consideration, and money can only be made on large trades, someone without capital (the inventor of the algorithm) cannot take advantage of the market inefficiency on their own. They would need a backer with a lot of capital. So, the inventor would need to sell their algorithm (perhaps for a large share of the profits). However, it would still remain unwise to share the algorithm with the world at large. Thanks Jonah S. Ford from the comments.

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#5. To: BTP Holdings (#0)

You never know what'll happen if you stare into the Sun.

FormerLurker  posted on  2016-10-04   21:07:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

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