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Title: Is America Facing Another Dust Bowl
Source:
accuweather.com
URL Source: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=dustbowl
Published: Feb 23, 2006
Author: accuweather.com
Post Date: 2006-02-23 12:55:30 by Brian S
Keywords: America, Another, Facing
Views: 192
Comments: 18
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are warning that oceanic conditions similar to those that triggered the ruinous "Dust Bowl" drought again appear to be in place. The exceptionally warm Atlantic waters that played a major role in the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season, coupled with cooler-than-normal Pacific waters, are weakening and changing the course of a low-level jet stream that normally channels moisture into the Great Plains. Effects are starting to be felt in "America's breadbasket," as the southern Great Plains region is already suffering from higher temperatures and a prolonged lack of precipitation.
Why could a new Dust Bowl drought occur?
The low-level jet stream-a fast-moving current of winds close to the Earth's surface-travels from east to west across the Atlantic, then typically curves northward as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture to the Great Plains. Abnormal sea-surface temperatures have caused this low-level jet stream to continue westward and to weaken, which is preventing much-needed moisture from reaching the agriculturally critical region. The shift in the jet stream is also allowing a southerly flow from Mexico to bring much drier air northward into the Plains.
Besides dramatically reducing precipitation for the region, the changes brought about by the abnormal sea-surface temperatures will also result in higher surface temperatures in the Plains. "When surfaces are wet, energy from solar radiation both evaporates moisture and heats the ground," said http://AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams. "When no moisture is present, all that energy is channeled toward heating the ground, and the warmer ground heats the lower atmosphere. The combination of low moisture and higher temperatures would be a crippling one-two punch for the Great Plains should these conditions persist, much like what occurred during the Dust Bowl drought." 
The Dust Bowl drought
The Dust Bowl, which lasted from 1931-1939, was a severe drought that struck a wide swath of the Great Plains. It was a catastrophic blow to the U.S. economy, which was already staggering under the weight of the Great Depression. The Dust Bowl was the worst drought in U.S. history, eventually covering more than 75 percent of the country. Solar radiation heating the parched and blighted land caused temperatures in the region to rise to record-breaking levels.
"1936 was the hottest summer ever recorded across much of the Midwest and East," said Abrams. "Many of the single-day and monthly record-high temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the country are from that year."
The Dust Bowl was also noted for the huge dust storms that billowed across the Great Plains and swallowed millions of acres of farmland at a time. While a Dust Bowl-level drought could occur again, it is highly unlikely that the nation will see a return of the dust storms.
"The dust storms fed off the over-plowed and over-grazed lands of the Great Plains," said Dale Mohler, http://AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist and a forecaster for the agricultural industry. "The agricultural practices at the time, combined with a long period of drought, caused severe damage to farmland in the region. Eventually the topsoil dried up to the point where it was swept away as great clouds of choking dust that stretched for miles."
Continued Mohler, "Today's agricultural practices, such as crop rotation and improved irrigation, as well as drought-resistant hybrid crops, would likely prevent the landscape from being as ruined as it was during the 1930s. For example, Illinois endured a terrible drought in 2005, but the state's corn yield was close to normal. However, a multiyear drought in the Great Plains would still be devastating for the nation."
The hurricane connection
"It is not a coincidence that the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s were marked by years of tremendous hurricane activity," said http://AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi. "For example, the record-shattering 2005 hurricane season was the first to eclipse 1933 in number of tropical cyclones, and that may only have been because we didn't have satellites in the 1930s to identify the major storms that failed to reach the U.S. coast."
Hurricanes are fed by warm waters. This year's warm Atlantic waters-which are now setting up a possible major drought in the U.S.-played a major role in the 2005 season's numerous and powerful storms. Conversely, because the Pacific has been relatively cool-another prerequisite for the return of a Dust Bowl-like drought-this year's Pacific hurricane season was tame from historical perspective.
Added Bastardi, "While we cannot yet tell how long this current pattern will last, if you trust history, then the 2005 hurricane season just may portend the return of a major drought to the Great Plains."
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#2. To: Brian S (#0)
My crop newsletter expands on this by explaining that the residual moisture in the soil saved most farmers last year; but if they don't get some rain soon, things could be horrible this year.
Food prices go up. Fuel costs go up. Water costs go up... Hmmm. Does this mean inflation soon? ;)
It may mean some Iowa farmland could go on the market: all these "trade" agreements are going to drive the small American farmer off his land.
#11. To: lodwick (#10)
Hasn't much of our farmland has been developed into shopping malls and condos?
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestFor example, Illinois endured a terrible drought in 2005, but the state's corn yield was close to normal.
#3. To: lodwick (#2)
My crop newsletter expands on this by explaining that the residual moisture in the soil saved most farmers last year; but if they don't get some rain soon, things could be horrible this year.
#10. To: Peetie Wheatstraw (#3)
Does this mean inflation soon? ;)
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