There are people on all sides of the political continuum entirely missing the reason for President Trump to threaten Bashir Assad publicly. Key word to understanding the Trump motive is: “publicly“.
President Trump, according to all high-brow punditry, is breaking diplomatic and national security norms by announcing the threat of punishment publicly instead of directly to Assad via a back-channel like Russia. However, that approach appears entirely by design; not by some arbitrary dispatch or happenstance breech of security protocol.
Here’s the big picture.
♦ FIRST – Who benefits from the U.S. attacking, weakening or taking out Assad?
Four primary groups:
- #1) Assad’s political opposition.
- #2) Islamic Extremist groups (ISIS, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra et al) ie. The Muslim Brotherhood.
- #3) Turkey and Recep Erdogan; and
- #4) John McCain, Evan McMullin, Adam Kinzinger, the industrial war complex and neo-cons etc.
♦ SECOND – President Trump doesn’t want to engage in Syria beyond the elimination of ISIS (al-Qaeda, al-Nusra) etc. Trump’s announced strategy is to defeat the Islamic extremists, ISIS; and then work on a regional governorship type structure toward a diplomatic internal political solution (Rex Tillerson).
[…] In terms of the future of Bashar al-Assad, it is important to us that we undertake a political process that leads to the final conclusion of how Syria will be governed. It is our policy for a unified Syria that is governed by the people of Syria.
I think it is clear to all of us that the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end; but the question of how that ends and the transition itself could be very important, in our view, to the durability, the stability inside of a unified Syria, and its stability and durability of the outcome going forward.
So that’s why we are not presupposing how that occurs, but I think it is clear that we see no further role for the Assad regime longer-term given that they have effectively given up their legitimacy with these type of attacks. (more) ~ Rex Tillerson
However, all of the four aforementioned vested interests want a civil war type military conflict and the mutually beneficial opportunities arising therein.
♦ THIRD – Bashir Assad, and by extension Vladimir Putin and Iran, don’t want to see ISIS defeated (leading to space for a political opposition within the country). So long as the fire that is ISIS remains, the fireman that is Assad has a purpose. Assad has a vested interest in containing, but not necessarily defeating, ISIS.
That’s why Russia and Assad made so much initial progress crushing ISIS then paused and preferred to just contain them. For several months Assad/Putin have NOT been working to eliminate ISIS or the Muslim Brotherhood. ISIS has become the shield for Assad to remain in power with a purpose to sell to the rest of the world.
All of Assad/Putin’s recent military engagements have been targeted attacks against Assad’s political opposition, not extremists and jihadists.
• President Trump wants ISIS defeated; Assad/Putin, notsomuch.
•ISIS, Turkey, the EU and John McCain want Assad defeated (regime change); President Trump, notsomuch.
Who has a vested interest in using Chemical Weapons that will draw the U.S. into removing Assad? Answer: ISIS, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, Turkey, Recep Erdogan, John McCain, Evan McMullin, Deep State CIA and EU counterparts etc.
To counteract this interest President Trump tells the world publicly:
“If, however, Mr. Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price.” (link)
In essence any entity that uses chemical weapons will trigger an attack against Assad.
So what’s Assad’s best play now?
Stop anyone from using Chemical Weapons.
What does that mean?
It means Assad/Putin needs to fight ISIS, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra etc. to ensure chemical weapons are not used.
This forces Assad to fight the and defeat forces he and Putin, in actuality, don’t want to fight (but Trump does).
If Assad doesn’t fight to defeat ISIS (al-Qaeda, al-Nusra etc.) he runs the risk of those people using chemical weapons to initiate Assad’s own demise. Ergo it is now in Assad’s best interest to fight ISIS (al-Qaeda, al-Nusra etc.).
♦ Lastly, by making the threat as big, loud and unusually public as possible, it stops the rogue industrial war machine: CIA, Senator John McCain, Evan McMullin, Adam Kizinger and the Muslim Brotherhood crew, from using chemical weapons to force Trump’s hand.
The unusually public broadcast by President Trump makes it transparently clear that Bashir Assad wouldn’t be the most likely suspect, and increases the likelihood any covert false-flag operator would be fingered.
The McCain crew customarily prefer shadows, not sunlight.
In essence, Trump presents protection to Assad from the rogue Deep State CIA operatives who work with John McCain and crew on all of their regime change operations on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood.
That’s why President Trump used the *unusual* public announcement approach.
If chemical weapons are used, the global community will question the motives of the user. As a consequence, if chemical weapons are used President Trump has also given himself space to question the motives of the user.