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Title: As Israel And Saudi Arabia Target Lebanon, What Are Hezbollah's Military Capabilities
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URL Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017- ... zbollahs-military-capabilities
Published: Nov 9, 2017
Author: Tyler Durden
Post Date: 2017-11-09 14:10:49 by Horse
Keywords: None
Views: 73
Comments: 4
Assessments of Hezbollah’s armed strength vary. Iran’s FARS news agency data from October 2016 put Hezbollah’s armed strength at no less than 65,000 troops, including reserves. Of them, 21,000 are professional soldiers with constant training. According to the 2017 Military Balance, currently 5-8 thousand Hezbollah troops are fighting in Syria. Bekaa Valley: the regional commander’s responsibilities include control over arms shipments from Iran through Syria for the “Sheikh Abdallah” military camp that’s under joint command by the Hezbollah and the Syrian army. According to various sources, this region’s forces consist of at least 7 infantry battalions with 252 people each. Three of them are motorized. South Beirut: according to various sources, this region includes at least two battalions of 252 troops, one of them motorized. South Lebanon: after the Taif treaty of 1989, Hezbollah formations were reorganized and placed under a unified command. The current commander is responsible for Hezbollah military and Special Security formations and may also command Lebanese Army units in South Lebanon. This region includes at least 7 battalions of 252 troops each, five of them motorized. Moreover, one should note the nontrivial fact of the existence of a full-scale, by Iranian, NATO, and Russian measures, tank regiment. In November 2016, near the city of al-Quiseir (Homs province, Syria), there was an inspection of Hezbollah equipment. The various photos from the inspection showed T-55, T-62, and some T-72 tanks, some 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, BMP-1, and -2, M113 APCs with 14.5mm machine-guns, ZSU-57-2 SPAA. Most of this equipment apparently came from SAA arsenals and was obtained from the Lebanese Army and possibly Iran. Being a full-fledged political and military organization, Hezbollah understands that it is surrounded by enemies such as Israel and radical Sunni Islamists. Therefore having a tank regiment with experienced crews is of vital importance, as the unit represents a serious force by the standards of Lebanon and the adjacent countries. The prolonged civil war in Lebanon, the permanent stand-off with Israel, and now also the struggle against Sunni Islamists - in other words, the constant balancing on the edge between war and peace - makes the movement flexible in its command arrangements and able to quickly and appropriately react to emerging problems. One can also draw the conclusion that the paramilitary wing of the Hezbollah, in spite of external attributes of a partisan movement, which it was 20-30 years ago, is gradually becoming a full-fledged army with a training establishment, a command structure, and a logistical segment. Each Hezbollah brigade in south Lebanon has a sector in northern Israel that it is supposed to occupy. Combat and special training in each brigade take into account local geography. One should also note that border terrain is fortified: there is a large-scale network of tunnels, bunkers, minefields. Using the tunnels, Hezbollah can concentrate large number of troops on the needed attack sector without being spotted and attacked from the air. Experience Gained in Syria Hezbollah leadership reviewed its concept of operations after the start of the Syria war. Before the war, the emphasis was placed on defensive ops in built-up areas with small units to inflict maximum troop and equipment losses on the IDF while simultaneously shelling Israel using large numbers of short- and medium- range rockets. In Syria, Hezbollah realized that it had to wage offensive ops in cities. Therefore it reconsidered its training system, increased its rocket arsenal, and provided more heavy weapons and recon systems. The first operation where Hezbollah took offensive using large units was the battle for el-Quseyr in May-June 2013. Some 1200-1700 best-trained Hezbollah troops took part in the battle. They were divided into 17 detachments, with later division into teams of 3-5 troops. Prior to the attack, the command performed recon of the city and its approaches, then divided the city into 16 sectors, one for each detachment. Each region had its codename. During the battle, this allowed for command of forces using open channels of communication without the enemy being able to take any countermeasures. Hezbollah command undertook the direction of SAA tank and artillery units near the city. Considering that the city was in the Islamist hands for over a year and was well-fortified, the ratio of losses was nevertheless 5:1 in favor of Hezbollah. The battle showed that with proper organization, a fortified city can be effectively attacked by a small force. As far as the military direction of Hezbollah units in Syria by Iran is concerned, it seems probable that Iran directs Hezbollah units down to battalion level (sometimes down to company) using IRGC specialists from the al-Quds Force. It can’t be ruled out that IRGC specialists coordinate Hezbollah and local self- defense forces like the Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Units smaller than a battalion don’t warrant the provision of specialists. There is a need for a large number of trained cadres able to command and provide assistance. One of the factors influencing cooperation in this instance is the language barrier— Arabic in Lebanon, versus Farsi in Iran. Hezbollah became one of the factors which allowed to turn around the war in Syria, since its troops were able to fight in cities. The SAA, in 2011-12 was organized along 1970-80 lines to fight combined arms battles mainly against Israel. New realities have shown that this army was unable to fight as small units in the cities. Moreover, the SAA has not fought for a long time. Its last significant operations took place in 1982. Therefore it had no commanders with urban warfare experience. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has constantly fought Israel since the moment of its creation. Generations of commanders have honed their skills in the years of clashes and battles with the IDF, causing it serious losses during the 2006 war. Israel was forced to retreat from south Lebanon, and Hezbollah’s reputation has risen to unprecedented heights. Israel’s military command is worried about Hezbollah’s operations in Syria, since its paramilitary wing will now be able to wage offensive ops using heavy weapons and a huge number of short-, medium-, and long-range rockets. The fact that Hezbollah has become akin to a regular army is confirmed by IDF’s rethinking of its approach to the fight against it. First, IDF is preparing for fighting big formations, up to a brigade, whose task will be invading Israel and capturing villages or military bases. Second, it is paying special attention to combating tunnels, including technical and psychological preparation of its troops to fight in tunnels. Hezbollah's Rocket Arsenal The movement’s distinguishing characteristic is the enormous rocket arsenal which, by various estimates, contains between 50 thousand and 120 thousand rockets. And not merely an arsenal, but a whole system, from rocket part and fuel factories to storage facilities and camouflaged launch sites. The existing land-based arsenal is reflected by the following table: To assess Hezbollah’s effectiveness, it is important to look back at its shelling of Israel in 2005. At the start, according to Nassrallah, there were over 12 thousand rockets. Official Israeli police reports noted 3770 rocket strikes on the country, including 901 strikes in the cities. Thanks to civil defense, only 44 were killed and 1384 were wounded. One is also tempted to note that Hezbollah mostly used rockets with ranges under 100km and small warheads, as no SRBM strikes were noted. This was due the small number of SRBMs and Israeli effort to destroy them, which was partly successful. Hits by 600-980kg SRBM warheads would have had catastrophic consequences on cities. The presence of SSMs proved a surprise for Israel. On July 14, 2006, the Israeli corvette ship Hanit was hit by a Chinese-made C-802 SSM launched from the shore. The ship’s air defense was turned off since nobody expected an SSM attack. 4 sailors were killed and the corvette was incapacitated for 3 weeks. The 165kg warhead most likely failed to explode, otherwise, the corvette would have sunk. Having a large rocket arsenal made in Iran, PRC, and Syria, raises the question of whether Hezbollah has its own factories of rockets. If it does, they manufacture certain numbers. It’s been a long time since the last war with Israel. Launching a rocket after lengthy storage could be dangerous to its launch crew. It would seem that the war in Syria is being used to use up old Russian and Chinese rockets of which it has large numbers. The situation is more complex with SRBMs. They are very expensive to make. It would make no sense to establish their production on territory which at any moment could be bombed by Israel. With proper servicing, such rockets can be stored for up to decades. It’s likely that some assistance here is provided by Iranian civil and military specialists. Building a rocket plant on the territory of another country is a whole different matter. In August 2017, Israeli media reported that Iranians are building a ballistic missile plant in north-west Syria. It is built near the coastal city of Banias, tens of kilometers from Tartus where the Russian base is located, and south of Hmeimim where Russian aircraft are based, protected by S-300 and S-400. Therefore the factory can be protected against Israeli strikes. According to experts, the plant will produce Fateh-110 rockets for the SAA and, possibly, Hezbollah. The rocket arsenal has been modernized and expanded. At the start of the next war, Hezbollah will be able to launch 1500 rockets a day, instead of 200 in 2006, covering the whole territory of Israel and not only the border regions. There are reports that Hezbollah has Russian Yakhont surface-to-surface missiles obtained from Syria, instead of the unreliable C-802. Therefore the Hezbollah rocket arsenal is not a network of warehouses full of artisanal rockets, dangerous to the crews operating them. It’s a whole range of industrially produced weapons capable of destroying land and naval targets at various ranges. All of the above does not mean Hezbollah seeks war with Israel, whose leadership is fully aware that if there is another war in south Lebanon, Israel’s civilians would unprecedented threats. Poster Comment: This an abridged version. Hezbollah has dozens of battalions - 252 men in their Army - trained to attack specific targets in Israel. They have special weapons, intelligence and training for each attack area. They could launch hundreds of missiles from inside Israel at close range. It would be a one shot one kill situation. Israel will not attack Lebanon. I don't see an Israeli invasion of either Syria or Lebanon. Hezbollah has too many missiles with big warheads. They could flatten Haifa with all those secondary explosions and fires. They could take down Israel's electrical grid for 6 months. 
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#1. To: Horse (#0)
Hezbollah AFAIK does not have an air force while Israel does.
Hezbollah has tunnels deep into Israel. They have dozens of 252 man battalions trained to attack specific targets inside Israel. They can pre-position lots of rockets which can be fired as almost one shot one kill weapons at close range. They have sufficient long range missiles to take out Israeli air bases, to burn Haifa to the ground and to take down the electrical grid for 6 months. Hezbollah's Russian made anti-ship weapons could be fired either from inside Israel or from freighter in the Mediterranean at any Israeli ship within 120 KMs. That could be devastating to Haifa if the ship is carrying LNG or Ammonia. If Iran gets involved, the US Central Command and all troops in Iraq and Afghanistan will be either killed or captured. Ditto for the thousand plus Americans in Baghdad's Green Zone. The US Persian Gulf fleet will be sunk. How will America continue the war with all those thousands of Americans held hostage? Of course oil out of the Mideast will be cut off including the Suez canal. Oil will spike to $200 a barrel. The US economy will collapse permanently when, not if, we lose reserve currency status which was protected by US military threats. We will have Nationwide Food Riots. The Dollar will Die. Foreigners will dump dollars and even exchange their trillions of dollars for SDRs from the IMF. We will be forced to repatriate trillions of dollars. We will go into Hyperinflation and wages in real dollars will be cut 50% or more. Our cities will be burned to the ground. Over 100 million refugees will flee the cities and meet resistance in small town America. But Israel does have an Air Force so things should work out? Right?
So does Hezbollah have a defense against an air force bombing them to smithereens? We see that Israel bombs Syria with impunity. Of course, so far the Russian anti-aircraft missiles have not been activated.
#4. To: Ada (#3)
Israel tried that in 2006 and it didn't work. This time Hezbollah has weapons capable of taking down Israel, destroying their electrical power grid for 6 months, obliterating Haifa, destroying Israeli air bases and the like. This will be far worse for Israel than 2006. If Iran is attacked, the US will lose the entire US Central Command, its Persian Gulf fleet and international reserve currency status for the dollar which will cut wages, pensions and savings in half.
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#2. To: Ada, farmfriend, BTP Holdings, *Israeli Espionage* (#1)
#3. To: Horse (#2)
But Israel does have an Air Force so things should work out? Right?
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