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World News See other World News Articles Title: US Sanctions, Baffled Russians, Hot Air and History So, finally, the suspense is over. Kind of. The US Treasury has finally released the list of Russian entities and individuals which could (conditionally!) be sanctioned by the US Treasury in compliance with the H.R.3364 – Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. These two short excerpt from the report show why I say “could”: and Now let’s translate all this in plain English: the US took a copy of the Kremlin telephone book, then a copy of Forbes and created a new list combining both. Then the US proclaimed that these entities and individuals are not under any sanctions yet, but are candidates for such sanctions. Does that make *any* sense to you *at all*?! Well, if it does, stop reading and enjoy your unique gifts. If it does not, then don’t feel bad as this makes no sense whatsoever for anybody in Russia either. Oh how I wish modern technologies would make it possible for me to post here all the recent interviews, articles, talk-shows and public statements made in Russia for the past 24 hours! To say that the Russians are baffled is, really, an understatement. Two things are noteworthy: first, this list completely ignores one of the most important realities of Russian politics: that the real, dangerous, opposition to Putin is not from the people (who support him at anywhere between 60% to 80%+) or from the Russian media (which, while often critical, does not represent a real threat to him) or even the Duma (whose opposition parties are critical of the Kremlin, but who are very careful about criticizing Putin himself lest they lose support from the people) . For years now I have been explaining that the real opposition to Putin is a) inside the ruling elites, including the Presidential Administration and the Government and b) big money: banks, oligarchs, etc. I call this (informal) opposition the “Atlantic Integrationists” because what these pro-western globalists want is for the AngloZionist Empire to accept Russia as an equal partner and to have Russia fully integrate itself into the US-controlled international financial and security structures: WTO, NATO, EU, G7/8, etc. Very roughly speaking you could call them as the “Medvedev people” (but you could also say that the Ministers in charge of the Russian economy all fall into this category, as do almost all the heads of Russian banks). I call the (informal) group supporting Putin the “Eurasian Sovereignists“. These are the folks who see the future of Russia in the South, East and even North, who want to pull Russia out of the AngloZionist international financial and security structures and who want a truly sovereign Russia to contribute to a new truly multi-polar world in collaboration with countries like China or the other BRICS countries. Very roughly you could call these people the “Putin people” (but you could also say that figures such as Ivanov, Rogozin, Shoigu and a few others are key personalities). This is important because the this list of (potentially sanctioned) people makes absolutely no distinctions between these two groups. Check out this article on RT entitled “Major Russian bank will no longer service defense industry over US sanctions fears“. It quotes the Alfa Bank CEO Mikhail Fridman whose net worth is estimated at $16.2 billion by Forbes,saying that in magazine that Alfa-Bank was cutting ties with the Russia’s defense industry, adding, “What can we do?”. Now look at the list, Appendix II, entry #23. Do you see who is there? Yup, the very same Mikhail Fridman! Now let me add this: in the current political climate in Russia, to have bank accounts in the West is considered shameful and unpatriotic and that is something which even most dishonest and hypocritical Eurasian Sovereignists can hardly afford for political reasons (that does not mean that some don’t try, they do, but at a great political risk). In contrast, among Atlantic Integrationists, whose power and influence does not depend on public opinion, having assets abroad is much less dangerous and, therefore, much more common. Now that the the US Treasury has released this “list of marked individuals” (and their families, relatives or associated corporate entities) for potential, unspecified, future sanction, who do you think will freak out most, the Eurasian Sovereignists or the Atlantic Integrationists? Then look a step further and forget about the US for a second: Russia is trying hard to work with the Europeans on many join projects. What do you think the creation of such a list will have on joint ventures between EU and Russian businessmen? I predict two things: It will place a great deal of pressure on EU corporations not to do business with the Russians and, therefore, it will further place the EU and the US on a collision course. It will hurt the Atlantic Integrationists where it hurts them the most: in their financial interests. Frankly, if I were paid to think long and hard about how to come up with the dumbest and most self-defeating foreign policy decision for the US I could never do better than what the Trump Administration and Congress have just done. This is, by the way, something which all Russian analysts agree with. What they don’t agree with are the reasons for that seemingly completely and terminally stupid move. Here are the various schools of thought in Russia on that account: Group One: “the slap in the face of Russia”: They believe that the sole intention was to insult and humiliate Russia by basically declaring that all the top Russian people are gangsters. According to them, there ain’t much the US can do to Russia other than to continue a petty war of insults and harassment (like the expulsion of Russian diplomats and the seizure of Russian consular buildings in the US). Group Two: “it’s all internal US politics”: That groups says that this has nothing to do with Russia at all. According to them, the US economy is doing well under Trump, the Democrats have nothing to use against him so all they do is continue to hammer the “Russian threat” fairytale to which Trump responds with deliberately ineffective and totally symbolic actions which make it look like he is anti-Russian when in reality he is quietly sabotaging the Democrats’ attempts at truly worsening relations with Russia and preventing the Democrats from playing the “Russian threat” card against Trump. Group Three: “Трамп Наш” (Тrump is ours): No, nobody in Russian seriously thinks Trump is a Russian agent or is somehow “owned” by Russia—they say that as a joke, always laughing. But what they do mean is that deep down Trump is a friend of Russia and is actually helping Russia and Putin. How? By taking all sorts of measures which only hurt the US while very powerfully helping Russia (for example, by forcing Russian oligarchs to bring their foreign assets back to Russia). Some even go as far as saying that this list is most damaging to the people opposed to Putin and that it gives him a pretext to fire them all after the Presidential elections in Russia. Far from considering Trump a bumbling idiot, this group sees him as a consummate politician who is actually creating the circumstances to really hurt his (real) enemies and help his (real) friends. Group Four: “Наших бьют!” (Our people are under attack!): This is the group which doesn’t care at all why the US is doing this or that, no matter how clumsy. All they care about is that this is yet another attack on “our people” (meaning Russian individuals or corporate entities) and that means that Russians should “circle the wagons” and come to the rescue of those thus attacked. This group most vociferously demands retaliatory steps from the Kremlin. They are a vocal minority. Group Five: “Филькина Грамота” (Botched document produced by clueless idiots [very approximate translation!]) This is the group which basically says that it is all much more simple and no complex explanations are needed: the Trump Administration and Congress is composed of clueless idiots who have no idea what the hell they are doing and who like to produce some policy decisions just to look like they still matter in the world when they really don’t. Putin himself seems to be in this last group as he officially called this latest US document “complete stupidity“. Frankly, in my experience the decision making process in the US is almost never the result of the efforts of single actor. In fact, US political decisions are the “vector sum” of the effect of many different forces acting together to produce a result that sometimes looks nonsensical but which is still the logical consequence from the joint effect of all the groups that determined it. In other words, all the explanations above could be right, albeit to various degrees. This being said, I strongly favor the last one as, like Putin, I have come to the conclusion that the Empire is run by stupid, ignorant ideologues who live in a world totally detached from reality. What is absolutely certain is that this latest move by the US is, again, a dream come true for Putin and his supporters, especially right before the elections. First and foremost, this is clearly an attack on “our guy” and even on “all of us” and this triggers a very strong reaction of support from the people. Furthermore, it separates all Russians into basically two camps: first, Putin supporters and, second, those who are so totally sold out to the US (like Ksenia Sobchak) that they would even hand back Crimea just in order to be friends with the West. The first group must roughly include, oh, let’s say 95%-98% of the population, the 2nd one about 2%-5%. Second, it is now clear that every Russian oligarch (along with his family members and colleagues) has a big bullseye painted on his back and that he now should hurry to place his assets in the only location where the Empire cannot seize them: inside Russia. Third, a lot of those oligarchs and civil servant who more or less actively opposed Putin and his policies now need to go back to him and, with hat in hand and a groveling tone, need to make amends and beg for his pardon and mercy. They placed their bets on the AngloZionists and they lost. Now they need to come back to papa and beg for clemency (they will probably get it too). This right before the elections is very helpful indeed even if nobody doubts the outcome of these election to begin with. To sum it all up: the latest move is a true blessing for Putin and Russia in both economic and political terms and the only ones really hurt by all this are the Atlantic Integrationists (who are really going through some very bad times anyway). Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
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