When commenting last week on the latest troubling trends in Canada's housing market, we predicted that unlike a previous forecast by Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok from early 2015, who at the time said that "Canada is in serious trouble", this time the moment of truth for Canada's all important housing market was indeed at hand.
While it had taken banks some time to push up their mortgage rates, they were finally "catching up" and as Bloomberg reported, just in the past few days Toronto-Dominion Bank - Canada's second largest lender - lifted its posted rate for five-year fixed mortgages by a whopping 45 bps to 5.59% as government bond yields touched their highest levels since 2011 this week.
"Its a big move, the biggest move in years," said Rob McLister, founder of RateSpy.com, a mortgage comparison website.
As regular readers are well-aware, rising rates in Canada has often been cited as the catalyst that could and would burst the country's housing bubble, because Canadian households, unlike American ones, never managed to delever...
... and even modest increases in rates would have adversely cascading effects.
And while Toronto Dominion was not alone in raising key borrowing rates last week - it was joined by all of Canada's biggest banks - just as the busy season for residential real estate gets underway, a more troubling development is taking place in the mortgage market, which according to Bloomberg is set for a particularly heavy year of renewals in an environment where debt-servicing costs are already soaring at the fastest pace in a decade.