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(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: Red-State Blues: Senators Running Behind Enemy Lines Red-State Blues: Senators Running Behind Enemy Lines Randy Yeip 3 hrs ago © Michael Thomas/Getty Images; Jeff Roberson/Associated Press Since the start of the election campaign, Democrats’ hopes of winning control of the U.S. Senate have hinged on completing a tricky double play: aiming to flip some Republican seats in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada while simultaneously holding on to states that are otherwise GOP strongholds. And though Republicans face unexpectedly strong challenges in places like Tennessee and Texas, Democratic efforts may be stymied by losses elsewhere, with polls pointing to an increasingly precarious position for several incumbents in states that backed President Trump by wide margins. In total, 10 Democratic-held seats up for election this year are in Trump states; six of those are considered highly competitive. Just one Senate Republican up this cycle hails from a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. That may not have mattered as much a generation or two ago, when ticket-splitting was more common. But as partisan divides have grown deeper, it has become rare for states to cast their ballots one way for president and another for Senate. In 2016, for the first time in history, not a single state split that way. Simply by the numbers, Democrats face a historically high level of exposure this cycle. Republicans have to defend just nine seats while Democrats try to retain 26. As a share of total seats up for election, that is the most for any party in the post-World War II period, according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Red-state Democrats like Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Jon Tester in Montana and Joe Manchin in West Virginia rank among the most conservative senators of their party, based on one commonly used measure that accounts for all congressional roll call votes. Their centrist records may enable at least some of them to outrun the weight of the Democratic Party label in their states. But polls put nearly all of them in a dead heat with their Republican challengers. Even though several of those Democrats are among the most conservative members of their party, they are still to the left of their home states. The chart below compares senators’ ideological positions with Gallup polls of how residents of each state rate their own political ideology. By that measure Sen. Heitkamp is furthest left of her state among those running in 2018. Polls show her seat to be the best pickup opportunity for Republicans. How poll respondents self-identify is instructive but is also open to interpretation; liberal and conservative can have different connotations in different parts of the country. The chart below looks instead at actual voting behavior in presidential elections compared with senators’ voting records. The relationship for most is similar to the previous chart, but in a few cases senators drift even further from their constituents. The distance between Nevada Sen. Dean Heller and his state grows. Nevada is seen as Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. Meanwhile, Sen. Manchin sits even further left of his constituents by this measure. But Sen. Manchin, along with Sens. Heitkamp and Donnelly, is one of the three Democrats most frequently siding with the president, voting in line with Mr. Trump’s position more than half the time, according to FiveThirtyEight’s vote tracker. One key vote distinguishes Sen. Manchin, however: he supported the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, while Sens. Heitkamp and Donnelly opposed it. Sen. Manchin has backed all but four of the president’s 29 other nominees to face Senate confirmation. Notably, polls indicate Sen. Manchin is in the strongest position among red-state Democrats, the only such incumbent leading by more than five points. He could be the lone survivor in an electoral environment that is increasingly defined by party labels. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 2.
#1. To: BTP Holdings (#0)
(Edited)
Blackburn might be pulling even or ahead in Tenn. Beto had been arrested for burglary. And he caused an accident while drunk driving. A witness had to restrain him from fleeing the scene of the accident. Not looking good for Dems except that the Maga Bomber did help them. Reps should have 55 Senate seats and hold onto the House. Reps pulling ahead in Mo, ND.
When I work for the State of Illinois, the yard Engineer cracked up his car drunk driving. It was a fender bender. The guy in the yard that was doing body work on the trucks fixed his car so there was no record of it. Still not too sure how he covered it all up. Maybe he hit a parked car. No witnesses. ;)
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