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Title: 22 Year High Today: Ag
Source:
Kitco.com
URL Source: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Published: Mar 21, 2006
Author: buckeroo
Post Date: 2006-03-21 21:48:34 by buckeroo
Keywords: Today:, Year, High
Views: 12702
Comments: 53
Poster Comment:
Good news for some of us. For the rest of you fine people, its going up so buy all you can.
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#1. To: buckeroo (#0)
I didn't see a disclaimer there saying that your post did not constitute financial advice, so if I buy a pile and it goes down, then I can sue you. Sell, sell, sell! Nobody wants to be long on anything at a 22-year high--take the money and run!
Did you sell your house? Is its price not higher than it was 22 years ago?
C'mon, Mark, don't give me that. Silver is MUCH more volatile than real estate. RE goes down, sure, sometimes dramatically (Flint, MI), but typically it's on a fairly steady upward jag. Silver goes way the fuck up, then way the fuck down. I wouldn't be surprised if we had $4.00/oz silver within 2 years. And I *hate* real estate, BTW. Too illiquid.
C'mon, Mark, don't give me that. Hey Indrid, I was just messin' with you. You did say you didn't want to be long on ANYTHING at a 22-year high. ;) Just because precious metals stank for 20+ years, does not mean they can't keep up with inflation at some point. They did enter a bubble in the 1970s. This is true. People lost confidence in US dollars. It is very hard for any of us to say when the last remnants of that bubble are gone. It is safe to say that those that bought silver at the peak around 1980 have lost, even at today's prices, 90% of their investment (adjusted for inflation). It was a lousy investment. However, people are clearly losing confidence in US dollars again. Where or how it ends only hindsight will tell us. We've got $9 trillion in debt, tens of trillions in long-term obligations, our trade deficit is approaching $1 trillion annually, and we're sending our money to the very people who love gold and silver. Further, we're fighting a "forever war" and wars are typically inflationary. Silver might correct, probably even correct, but back to $4? I guess we'll just have to wait and find out. I don't believe our dollar is getting stronger. I believe the other currencies are actually getting weaker. It is all relative and we are now in competitive devaluation mode. There is the risk that we'll someday be using wheelbarrows full of cash to buy bread. We wouldn't be the first country to do it. All it would take is never ending deficit spending, a concept our government feels all too comfortable with. That's just my 2 cents.
I would totally LOVE that, and so would most Americans. Because we're all debtors. My 4 stores will probably gross almost a million dollars this year, and yet I have control over prices--I can raise my prices twice a day if I want to. My bank, to which I owe some $400,000, is not so lucky. They've contracted for such-and-such amount of principle at such-and-such a rate. If the dollar totally tanks, I'll be able to pay off my debt in a couple of weeks, since I owe dollars which are constantly decreasing in value, yet I'm charging more dollars for my goods and services in order to keep up with inflation.
Because we're all debtors. My 4 stores will probably gross almost a million dollars this year, and yet I have control over prices--I can raise my prices twice a day if I want to. My bank, to which I owe some $400,000, is not so lucky. They've contracted for such-and-such amount of principle at such-and-such a rate. If the dollar totally tanks, I'll be able to pay off my debt in a couple of weeks, since I owe dollars which are constantly decreasing in value, yet I'm charging more dollars for my goods and services in order to keep up with inflation. Indeed. You would be in one of the better circumstances certainly, especially in your line of business. However, the average American is going to have some serious problems. Hyperinflation won't be kind to the average American worker nor will it be kind to the average company that can't raise prices twice a day. As for banks, ouch. Yep. Further, a lot of productivity would be lost simply changing prices. Take restaurants. It would stink to have the prices raised on you while you are eating, lol. ;)
No, seriously, we're all debtors. Most all Americans are leveraged to the hilt. Their day-to-day prices might rise fantastically, but they could pay off their credit cards with like a day's pay. Also think of the tremendous returns they might get on any real property they might own, like guns or jet skis. And, yes, precious metals. Scenario: Bank loans you $60,000 to buy a Hummer H3. Hyperinflation hits. You sell the H3 for 3.5 million dollars. Pay the bank back its chumpy $60k. It's flawless! Of course you know the gov't will step in and ruin everything.
Also think of the tremendous returns they might get on any real property they might own, like guns or jet skis. And, yes, precious metals. Scenario: Bank loans you $60,000 to buy a Hummer H3. Hyperinflation hits. You sell the H3 for 3.5 million dollars. Pay the bank back its chumpy $60k. It's flawless! Of course you know the gov't will step in and ruin everything. Also think of the tremendous returns they might get on any real property they might own, like guns or jet skis. And, yes, precious metals. It is far too tempting for the government to let inflation solve debt problems. In the case of Weimar Germany, one person even hoarded bedpans. That's when you know you are WAY TOO late to the party, lol. Doh! ;) Of course you know the gov't will step in and ruin everything. Indeed. That's exactly why I think of precious metals as an insurance policy and not as a get rich quick scheme. I think the government will be slow to ruin everything (they are slow in general), but in the end I think we can pretty much count on it. If they keep raising interest rates like everything is just fine and dandy, eventually something is going to break, like perhaps the entire global economy. In that environment, silver won't look so attractive (at least in the short-term). The silver ETF hype is the one thing that makes me tempted to take some profits. However, I am only a seller from here on out. I refuse to play the trading game with it when the transaction costs for owning the physical metals are so high. Do I think silver will correct, maybe even substantially? Probably. Do I think years from now silver will be even higher if only because of inflation? Probably. If I was a trader would I buy now? Probably not. As an insurance policy for the long-term would today's price be acceptable? Maybe. It is down 90% from its high of $50 (adjusted for inflation). It has been inflating at roughly the same rate as most things since 1964. The path to get to this price was certainly not smooth though. As you say, it sure is volatile.
INO reporting somebody got a silver order filled at $9.14 today, which means they'd have been almost $7500 ahead per contract as soon as the order was executed. Damn, I never get fills like that. I'm sure the seller is looking for somebody's head on a plate, though.
There are no replies to Comment # 24. End Trace Mode for Comment # 24.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestFor the rest of you fine people, its going up so buy all you can.
#9. To: Indrid Cold (#1)
Sell, sell, sell! Nobody wants to be long on anything at a 22-year high--take the money and run!
#12. To: markm0722 (#9)
Did you sell your house? Is its price not higher than it was 22 years ago?
#15. To: Indrid Cold (#12)
Did you sell your house? Is its price not higher than it was 22 years ago?
#16. To: markm0722 (#15)
There is the risk that we'll someday be using wheelbarrows full of cash to buy bread. We wouldn't be the first country to do it. All it would take is never ending deficit spending, a concept our government feels all too comfortable with.
#20. To: Indrid Cold (#16)
I would totally LOVE that, and so would most Americans.
#22. To: markm0722 (#20)
However, the average American is going to have some serious problems. Hyperinflation won't be kind to the average American worker nor will it be kind to the average company that can't raise prices twice a day.
#23. To: Indrid Cold (#22)
No, seriously, we're all debtors. Most all Americans are leveraged to the hilt. Their day-to-day prices might rise fantastically, but they could pay off their credit cards with like a day's pay.
#24. To: markm0722 (#23)
Replies to Comment # 24.