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Immigration See other Immigration Articles Title: A Jobless Recovery? Immigrant Gains Native Losses October 2004 The recovery from the recession of 2001 has been described as “jobless.” In fact, an analysis of the latest Census Bureau data shows that between March of 2000 and March of 2004, the number of adults working actually increased, but all of the net change went to immigrant workers. The number of adult immigrants (18 years of age and older) holding a job increased by over two million between 2000 and 2004, while the number of adult natives holding a job is nearly half a million fewer. This Backgrounder also finds that the number of adult natives who are unemployed or who have withdrawn from the labor force is dramatically higher in 2004 than it was in 2000. These findings raise the possibility that immigration has adversely Affected the job prospects of native-born Americans. Among our findings: Between March of 2000 and 2004, the number of unemployed adult natives increased by 2.3 million, while the number of employed adult immigrants increased by 2.3 million. Half of the 2.3 million increase in immigrant employment since 2000 is estimated to be from illegal immigration. In addition to a growth in unemployment, the number of working age (18 to 64) natives who left the labor force entirely has increased by four million since 2000. Even over the last year the same general pattern holds. Of the 900,000 net increase in jobs between March 2003 and 2004, two-thirds went to immigrant workers, even though they account for only 15 percent of all adult workers. In just the last year, 1.2 million working-age natives left the labor force, and say that they are not even trying to find a job. Immigrant job gains have occurred throughout the labor market, with more than two-thirds of their employment gains among workers who have at least a high school degree. There is little evidence that immigrants take only jobs Americans don’t want. Even those occupations with the highest concentrations of new immigrants still employ millions of native-born workers. The decline in native employment was most pronounced in states where immigrants increased their share of workers the most. Occupations with the largest immigrant influx tended to have the highest unemployment rates among natives. The states with the largest increase in the number of immigrants holding jobs were Texas, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia, California, Arizona, New Jersey, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, the biggest increases in immigrant employment were in Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Dallas, Houston, New York, and Seattle. Recent immigration has had no significant impact on the nation’s age structure. If the 6.1 million immigrants (in and out of the labor force) who arrived after 2000 had not come, the average age in America would be virtually unchanged at 36 years. It would be an oversimplification to assume that each job taken by an immigrant is a job lost by a native. What is clear is that the current economic downturn has been accompanied by record levels of immigration. Given the labor market difficulty of many natives, the dramatic increase in the number of immigrants holding jobs certainly calls into question the wisdom of proposals by both presidential candidates to increase immigration levels further. While the findings of this study may seem stark, they are consistent with other research on this subject.1 Data Source and Methods Data Source. The information for this Backgrounder comes from March Current Population Surveys (CPS) collected by the Census Bureau. All figures in this study reflect the 2000-based population weights, which were put out by the Census Bureau after the 2000 Census revealed that the nation’s population was larger than previously thought. By using the new weights we are able to make comparisons between the years 2000 and 2004. The March data, called the Annual Social and Economic Supplement, includes an extra-large sample of minorities and is considered one of the best sources for information on the foreign-born.2 The foreign-born are defined as persons living in the United States who were not U.S. citizens at birth.3 For the purposes of this report, foreign-born and immigrant are used synonymously. Because all children born in the United States to the foreign-born are by definition natives, the sole reason for the dramatic increase in the foreign-born population is new immigration. The immigrant population in the 2004 CPS includes roughly 9.1 illegal aliens and between one and two million persons on long-term temporary visas, mainly students and guest workers. The CPS does not include persons in “group quarters,” such as prisons and nursing homes. Focus on Adult Workers. In this study we examine employment patterns among adult workers 18 years of age and older. Although persons age 15 through 17 often do work, it is adults who comprise the vast majority of full-time workers and almost always are the primary income source for a household. Thus the labor market situation of adult workers is central both to the economy and American families. At various times in the study we do examine labor force participation among workers 18 to 64. When considering labor force participation, it is standard practice to confine the analysis to those under age 64 because the overwhelming majority of Americans retire by age 65. Persons in the labor force are those who are working or unemployed (looking for work). All other individuals are considered to be outside of the labor force. Overall Employment, 2000 and 2004 Declining Native Employment. Table 1 examines the labor force status of adult natives and immigrant workers in the United States. The top of the table shows that the number of employed natives was 500,000 fewer in 2004 than in 2000. In contrast, there was a net increase of 2.3 million in the number of foreign-born workers holding jobs over this same time period. Put another way, there was a net increase of 1.7 million in the total number of adults working in the United States, but all of that increase went to foreign-born workers. The middle section of Table 1 reports the number of unemployed natives and immigrants. It shows that there were almost 2.3 million more natives unemployed in 2004 than there were in 2000. While it would be a mistake to assume that there is a one-for-one relationship between immigrant employment gains and native losses, it is clear that the number of immigrants with jobs increased dramatically at the same time as the number of natives looking for a job also increased. Native Non-Work Increased. The bottom of Table 1 shows the number of working-age (18 to 64) natives and immigrants not in the labor force. Between 2000 and 2004, the number of natives not working increased by nearly four million, from 30.8 million to 34.8 million. Thus, not only are 500,000 fewer natives working and 2.3 million more unemployed, fewer natives are even in the labor force at all. Of course, many adults do not work by choice, but, as we will see, changes in child rearing, pursuit of higher education, or other factors do not seem to explain the increase in the number of natives not in the labor force. It seems almost certain that at least some of the increase is related to economic conditions and perhaps a continued high level of immigration. Withdrawal from the Labor Market Related to the Economy. The increase in the number of working age (18 to 64) natives not in the labor force could be the result of factors other than the scarcity of employment opportunities. One reason might be an increase in the number of adults staying home to care for a young child. In American society, women are still much more likely than men to take time off from a career in order to care for children. Thus an increase in the number of women not in the labor force might be an indication that the decision not to work is unrelated to the economy. But an analysis of the CPS shows that only half of the four million increase in working-age natives not in the labor force is among women. Moreover, of the two million increase among working-age women not in the labor force, less than 200,000 was due to an increase in the number of women who have a young child under age six. Thus it seems very unlikely that much of the increase in the number of working age natives is related to women taking time out from their careers to care for young children. Another possible reason for the rise in non-labor force participation could be the growth in the number of working-age college students. In fact, the CPS does show that the number of natives 18 to 64 who were not in the labor force and were attending college increased by 750,000 between 2000 and 2004. Part of this increase reflects a growth in the overall size of the native college-attending population. But some of this increase also reflects a deterioration in the labor market situation for native-born college students. The unemployment rate for college students increased from 5.9 percent to 7.2 percent, and the percentage not in the labor force increased from 40.9 to 43 percent. Had the labor force participation rate remained the same for native-born college students, about 200,000 more native-born college students would have been in the labor force. Thus, we estimate that of the total increase in the number of working-age natives not in labor force, about 14 percent is related to an increase in the number of college students.4 Another possible reason for an increase in the number of natives not working or looking for work is early retirement. However, there is no strong evidence for this. Between 2000 and 2004, the number of natives ages 60 to 64 not in the labor force increased by only 330,000. Of course, retirement is not always voluntary. In fact, unemployment did increase among workers in this age category. But even including all of the 330,000 increase with the increase in college attendance and the increase in the number of mothers saying home, still accounts for, at most, one-fourth of the rise in the number of working age natives not in the labor force. It is almost certain that economic conditions account for the most of the increase in non-labor force participation among natives ages 18 to 64. This is not, of course, proof that immigrants have caused this increase. What we can say is that the number of immigrant workers in the labor force has grown at the same time as the number of working-age natives not in the labor force has increased. Immigrants Also Affected by Recession. The figures in Table 1 show that immigrants were also adversely impacted by the economic downturn. While Table 1 shows that the number of adult immigrants holding jobs increased dramatically, unemployment and non-work also increased for this population. The rapid growth in the foreign-born population over this time period makes it possible for the number of immigrants holding jobs and the number not working to increase at the same time. The continued growth in the number of immigrant workers also represents a real-world test of the often-made argument that immigration is primarily driven by economic need in the United States. The data show that despite a significant deterioration in unemployment and labor force participation among immigrants, growth in the immigrant population remains at record levels. The overall immigrant population has grown by more than four million since 2000. The fact that immigration has remained so high suggests that immigration levels do not simply reflect demand for labor in this country. Immigration is clearly not a self-regulating phenomenon that will rise and fall with the state of the economy. Immigration is a complex process driven by a variety of factors, and even a significant economic downturn does not result in lower levels of immigration. Gains Throughout Labor Market Contrary to the perceptions of some, most of the net increase in immigrant employment was not at the very bottom of the labor market. Table 2 reports the number of persons holding jobs by education level. The table shows that less than 700,000 (only 30 percent) of the net increase in adult immigrant employment was among workers with less than a high school degree. About 20 percent of the net increase in immigrant employment was for those with just a high school degree, and 50 percent of the growth was for those who had an education beyond high school. With half of the net increase in immigrant employment among workers with an education beyond high school, the argument that “immigrants only take jobs Americans don’t want” would seem to be incorrect. Immigrants are not simply taking jobs that require little education, pay relatively little, and are menial in nature. While it is true that a much larger share of immigrant than native workers have few years of schooling, immigration is increasing the supply of workers throughout the labor force. Native-Born Dropouts. Turning first to native dropouts, Table 2 shows that the number holding a job declined by 1.4 million. Table 3 reports unemployment rates by education level. It shows that some of this decline is explained by an increase of 217,000 in unemployment among native dropouts. The decline in the number of native dropouts also seems to be related to the retirement of older natives with few years of education. Table 4 reports the number of working-age (18 to 64) people not in the labor force by education level. The table shows that the number of native dropouts not in the labor force went down slightly between 2000 and 2003, indicating that there was not an increase in non-work for this type of worker. Because American society has become more educated in recent decades, there has been a decline in the number of natives lacking a high school degree. Many older native-born dropouts are retiring. On the other hand, the unemployment rate of 13.3 percent and rate of non-work for native-born dropouts is dramatically higher than for other workers. By significantly increasing the supply of unskilled workers during the recession, immigration may be making it more difficult for these workers to improve their situation. While it might be reasonable to describe these jobs as ones that most American don’t want, clearly there are still millions of unskilled Americans in the labor force. Given the persistently high unemployment rate and low rates of labor force participation among this population, it may make little sense to continually increase the supply of unskilled workers through immigration, especially during a economic downturn. Natives With Only a High School Degree. Table 2 shows that the number of natives with only a high school degree holding a job in 2004 was 2.2 million fewer than in 2000. Moreover, in Table 3 we see that the number of natives with only a high school degree who were unemployed was 885,000 higher. In addition, Table 4 shows that the number of natives with only a high school degree not in the labor force was nearly 1.2 million higher. During the same time period, the number of immigrants with the same level of education holding a job increased by 438,000 (Table 2). There were also nearly 300,000 unemployed immigrants in 2004 in this educational category, an increase of about 100,000 from 2000 (Table 3). There is no question that immigration has increased the supply of this type of worker at the same time natives with only a high school degree have lost jobs. More Educated Natives. Turning to natives with more than a high school degree, Table 2 shows that the number of workers like this actually increased by about three million over this time period. However, Table 3 indicates that the number of unemployed workers with more than a high school degree increased by almost 1.2 million. It should be pointed out that educated workers tend to be more reluctant to describe themselves as unemployed than those with less education. Thus, when examining the economic situation for this group, it is especially important to consider the labor force participation. Table 4 shows that the number of more educated natives not in the labor force increased by three million (23 percent) between 2000 and 2004. Over the same time period, the number of immigrants with more than a high school degree holding a job increased by 1.2 million, and the number looking for a job (unemployed) roughly doubled to 442,000. Thus, immigration is clearly increasing the supply of more educated workers at the same time as unemployment and withdrawal from the labor market remain high among such workers. It is also worth considering that jobs requiring an education beyond high school are typically higher paying, and certainly are not seen as jobs Americans don’t want. Overall, Tables 2 through 4 seem to indicate that immigrants and natives are competing for work throughout the labor market. Immigrant-Heavy Occupations. The impact of immigration can also be examined by looking at occupations. Unfortunately, it is not easy to examine changes in the number of immigrants by occupation because the way the government classifies occupation changed between 2000 and 2004. However, Table 5 reports the occupational distribution of immigrant and native workers in 2004. Looking at occupations can provide some insight into what sectors of the economy are most impacted by immigration. The first column reports the percentage of adult immigrants employed in each occupation. For example, 2 percent of immigrants are employed in the farming, fishing, and forestry occupational category. The second column reports the share of all workers in that occupation that are immigrants. Thus, immigrants comprise 36 percent of adult workers in the farming/fishing/forestry occupation. The third column shows the number of adult natives employed in each occupation. The fourth column shows the number of unemployed natives who indicated that their last job was in each occupation. The fifth column shows the number of immigrants who arrived between 2000 and 2004 who are employed in that occupation. The last column shows the native unemployment rate.5 Table 5 ranks occupations based on the percentage comprised of immigrants. It is often suggested that the kinds of jobs immigrants do are so different from what natives do that the two groups seldom, if ever, compete. But Table 5 shows that, at least when looked at by occupation, this does not appear to be the case. Clearly there are jobs where immigrants make up a large share of workers, but there are still millions of natives employed in those same occupations. In the first five occupations listed in the table, immigrants comprise 20 percent or more of all workers. But there are still 21.9 million adult natives employed in these occupational categories. In fact, the vast majority of workers in these heavily immigrant occupations are natives. In the six occupations where immigrants comprise 15 to 19 percent of all workers, we again see that there are 18.5 million adult natives employed in these occupations. If we focus just on the four occupations with the largest number of newly arrived immigrants (construction, food preparation, cleaning and maintenance, and production workers) we again find that there are 21.4 million natives employed in these occupations. In these four occupations there were 1.4 million newly arrived immigrants, and there were more than two million unemployed natives. This does not mean that immigrants caused the unemployment of natives, though that is a possibility. But it does mean that the idea that there are no American workers available to fill these lower-skilled jobs is not supported by available data. It is possible that the occupational categories are so highly aggregated in Table 5 that they obscure large differences between immigrants and natives. But it must be remembered that there are 48 million natives in the labor force who have only a high school degree or less. Most of these workers do jobs that require only a modest level of training. Moreover, Table 5 makes clear that, although they are concentrated in more menial jobs, immigrants are employed throughout the labor market. New Immigration Explains Growth Tables 1 through 4 deal with the net change in immigrant and native employment between 2000 and 2004. But they do not indicate when the immigrant workers arrived in the United States. In contrast, the fifth column in Table 5 reports the number of immigrants holding a job who arrived between 2000 and 2004. While it is possible that the growth in adult immigrant employment in the last four years is the result of immigrants aging into the labor force or adult immigrants already here in 2000 entering the labor market, this is not the case. Table 5 shows that there were 2.9 million immigrants in 2004 who said that they arrived in 2000 or later. We know this because the CPS asks immigrants what year they came to stay in the United States. The net increase in the number of immigrants holding jobs was 2.3 million. Therefore, all of the net growth in immigrant employment is due to new immigrants arriving from aboard. It should be noted that the reason the number of adult immigrant workers did not grow by 2.9 million is that some immigrants here in 2000 had died, gone home, or left the labor force by 2004. Thus 2.3 million represents the net increase in immigrant employment.
Poster Comment: Kicking people out of the work force into early retirement can only work for so long. The retirement age has been increased to age 67 for the baby boomers. What are all those liberals going to do when their jobs disappear? Not everyone can afford to retire early. This is going to crash soon. I heard an Air America host say she wants the Reps to run against illegal immigration. She thinks flooding the country with illegal aliens is a way to win elections. She is opposed to the war in Iraq, but she says criticizing 9-11 is out of the main stream of politics. I think illegal immigration is the only thing that is more unpopular than Bush.
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#1. To: RickyJ (#0)
This might be a good place to hone your reading skills.
“Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few…No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.” – James Madison, Political Observations, 1795
I run large skilled trade projects in the 2nd largest immigrant market. While I claim to dispute the numbers in this survey, I don't believe it goes far enough in assessing the realalities in the workplace. From my observation 2 points stand out. 1 It is illegal NOT to hire immigrants no matter how they got here once the feds give them papers, and they all get papers. 2 Qualified or not immigrants are the only ones applying for the jobs.
“Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few…No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.” – James Madison, Political Observations, 1795
While I don't claim to dispute the numbers in this survey I should read before I post
“Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few…No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.” – James Madison, Political Observations, 1795
I'd say that in the construction trades of the big southwestern cities wehre construction industry is big it seems that the natives have given up trying to find work in those fields. so large is the flood of mexicans. that's my view.
just think, next they're going to change all of the illegal immigrant workers into legal indentured servants. This is a move in the wrong direttion actually. because the legal indentured servants will not be able to switch jobs. Their status in this country will be tied to their jobs. If they lose their jobs for any reason, then they'll have to leave immediately. This will create a situation where the employers will have a large semi-slave group of employees. This is not a step in the right direction.
I wish it was that simple, the natives don't want to work through an appreniceship program to learn a trade that will pay them 60-70+K in 4 years so they go to work at the piercing pagoda at the mall and live with Mom. The immigrants work at least 1 job maybe 6 days a week and buy 400-500K homes with Govt. loans from people like me that are glad to flip them. I have 2 great hard working intelligent guys who bought homes in a run down neighborhood not too many years ago. these row homes with 3 car offstreet parking are now in one of the most desireable and fastest appreciating neighborhoods in the city Columbia Height and worth over a million dollars apiece. It couldn't happen to 2 better men. And hell no I don't like living in a third world country with first world Government. I am not an elected official. I did not make or like these laws and regulations. It could all be stopped in a day, but that window is closing fast. It would be an easier sell if we hadn't killed 45,000,000 to 50,000,000 americans legally since 1/22/1973, but I digress.
“Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few…No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.” – James Madison, Political Observations, 1795
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