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Title: Boris Johnson and the Tories are forecast to win sweeping 68-seat majority in election
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URL Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar ... ast-Boris-Johnsons-Tories.html
Published: Nov 27, 2019
Author: staff
Post Date: 2019-11-27 20:09:47 by Horse
Keywords: None
Views: 26
the ONLY polling model that correctly predicted 2017 result says party will get 359 seats to 211 for Labour YouGov 'MRP' analysis this evening based on tens of thousands of poll responses Mr Johnson's Tories could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in 2017 election The Labour Party looks on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262 in 2017 Boris Johnson is set to secure a majority of 68 in the upcoming general election, a new polling model revealed tonight. The YouGov 'MRP' analysis released this evening showed Mr Johnson's Conservative Party could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in the 2017 general election. They would also take 43 per cent of the vote. If the Tories managed to secure that on December 12 it would make it the party's best performance since 1987. The Labour Party looks on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262, which would be its second worst defeat since World War Two. The modelling also reveals they would not win any new seats. The Liberal Democrats on 13 seats, are only up one from the last election, despite a predicted increase in vote share from 8 per cent in 2017 to 14 per cent. In Scotland, the SNP are set to get 43 seats, an increase of 8, but vitally for Mr Johnson only two come from his party. If the election was held on Thursday, Wales' Plaid Cymru and the Green Party would remain static with four seats and one seat respectively. The findings will be a significant boost to Mr Johnson's campaign, but with only two weeks to go until polling day, will be highly concerning for Labour election strategists. The study is closely watched because it accurately predicted in 2017 that former Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority - the only one to do so. The modelling shows Mr Johnson would comfortably keep hold of his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, but that Zac Goldsmith could be on course to lose Richmond Park. The analysis shows that most of the seats changing are ones that Labour won in 2017 - but could now be taken by the Tories. If the election was held on Thursday, the Conservative's would pick up Tom Watson's vacated seat and Caroline Flint's Don Valley seat. They could also pick up Tony Blair's previous Sedgefield seat and Norman Lamb's seat in North Norfolk. Of the 76 Labour-held seats where they lead the Tories by fewer than 8,000 votes, Jeremy Corbyn's party is currently behind in 43 of them, according to the analysis. Those standing as independents such as Anna Soubry, David Gauke, Gavin Shuker, Frank Field and Dominic Grieve, are also set to lose out. The Liberal Democrats are set to pick up a significantly higher vote share - from 8 per cent in 2017 to 14 per cent - but will only pick up one extra seat. The model currently shows none of the MPs who have defected to the Lib Dems in recent months winning the seats in which they are standing. Among the defectors from the Conservatives, Sarah Wollaston is 19 points behind in Totnes, Antoinette Sandbach is trailing by 33 points in Eddisbury, Philip Lee is down by 10 points in Wokingham, and Sam Gyimah is 8 points adrift in Kensington. The three Labour defectors are also struggling. Chuka Umunna is 13 points behind in Cities of London and Westminster, Luciana Berger is 18 points back in Finchley and Golders Green, and Angela Smith is trailing by 33 points in Altrincham and Sale West. The pound rose sharply on news of Boris Johnson's predicted majority. However it is worth noting that there could be local elements in play in these seats, which the model might not be picking up. The margins of error in the model put the Conservatives seat projection between 328 and 385, YouGov said, adding that there was still more than sufficient time for people to change their minds before Dec. 12 - the first Christmas election in nearly a century. Chris Curtis, political research manager for the pollster, said: 'YouGov's official election MRP model currently shows the Tories with a comfortable majority with almost all of those coming at the expense of Labour in the North and Midlands. 'As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour are how that seat voted in the European Union referendum. 'In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 (60% or more in favour of departing the EU), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6%. 'This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint. 'The only silver lining for Labour is that there are still 30 seats where it is currently 5% or less behind the Tories. If it can manage to squeeze the gap over the coming fortnight it may be able to paste over the cracks in their so-called Red Wall. But with just two weeks to go, time is running out for Labour.' Poster Comment: Zac Goldsmith is married to Alice Rothschild. Richmond Park is a wealthy area of London. Good News if he loses an election. He is the idiot who lost the mayor's race to Khan. A Jew Vs a Muslim for mayor.
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