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(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: The Democrat Hail Mary The Democrat Hail Mary By C.K. Chrystal / January 30, 2020 Yesterday I covered how the powers that be of the Democratic party are terrified of the probable outcome from their Presidential candidate nomination process. And while things are bleak for them at the moment, they could still right their ship. However, at this point, it might take a Hail Mary. We’re only about 40 weeks (278 days) from the general election. That may sound like a long-time away, but it is not. Time is now the enemy of anyone in a competitive district. And that goes double for the candidates in the Democratic Primary. Every day that ticks off the calendar without the Democratic party knowing who their candidate will be is a precious resource lost. The only way to beat President Trump is with loads of money, nonstop rallies, novel ideas that will capture attention, and A LOT of planning. There will have to be efficient and endless communication and coordination between the eventual candidate’s campaign, the national party, state and local parties, donors, creative teams, and so forth. The less time for all parties to get on the same page, the more of a scramble there will be. And if none of the Democratic candidates is over the mark of about 500 delegates after Super Tuesday on March 03, 2020, it could take until the convention in July to choose the candidate. If the candidate is chosen that late in the year, that will leave less than four months for all of the necessary factions to achieve their goal of beating Donald Trump. Additionally, if Bernie Sanders does get the nomination, there will be defections. I know a lot of hopes are being placed on Michael Bloomberg, and I understand that, but his current strategy makes very little sense. If he’s going to win this, time is a bigger enemy of his than it is of the rest of the potential field. I say potential because even though there are still 12 contenders are still in the race, only three MAYBE five of them can win the nomination. Those candidates are: Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and I’ll leave a spot for a wildcard. Biden is the default candidate, which is very different from being a front-runner. People know him, and they know what to expect. Never underestimate familiarity. There is a model where Joe keeps pushing forward, and somehow by the end of the primary gulag, he’s won. Albeit, that carries slim odds of occurring, so the big-shots running the party can’t depend on that happening. And as we covered yesterday, they’re scared of Bernie winning because of what would happen to the party. From where I’m sitting, they are in a tight position, the kind of spot that you have to make a bold move to escape. One viable option to get out of the corner they’ve painted themselves into is to go all-in on Pete Buttigieg. Joe would need to step out of the race, but really, would anyone be shocked? He could cite health or age, and everyone would understand. Just today, he said he needed a younger VP because he’s an older man. And, judging from all of the altercations he gets into, Joe is not enjoying the process. His exiting the race would free up all of the moderates (and others) in the party that are currently supporting him so that they can get behind Pete early enough for him to win it. While Pete has a list of flaws and problems as a candidate that could make up a whole article, he’s still better than Joe. You don’t have to worry about Pete talking to a screen instead of the people, or not knowing where he is while speaking. Add to that the fact that you would have a candidate who can still learn, grow, and be in the spotlight for another 30 years. Reagan lost in the Republican Presidential primary in 1976, and Clinton was voted out as Governor of Arkansas in 1980, only to win his seat back two years later. What I’m saying is, even if Mayor Pete loses to Trump in November, they would still be planting seeds for the future. It doesn’t even have to be a group of people that convince the Vice President to step aside; Joe could decide to do this on his own. But nobody will ask Biden to do that. And Joe won’t do it on his own. So in playing it safe with a weak hand for this election, the party is tying their future to somebody with limited time. All while they could be making a bold move and going for the win now, or possibly in 2024. After reading all of that, which one sounds like more of a Hail Mary to you? Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
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