While China is 'recovering' (according to its 'official' numbers), the rest of the world is escalating aggressively in terms of the exponential growth in Covid-19 cases (and sadly, deaths).
How bad can it get if the rest of the world does not go full-China in terms of authoritarian crackdowns?
Given the current rate of expansion - and assuming exponential growth - the virus could infect one billion people within 81 days (up over age around 10x every 16 days).
How bad can it get if the rest of the world does not go full-China in terms of authoritarian crackdowns?
Given the current rate of expansion - and assuming exponential growth - the virus could infect one billion people within 81 days (up over age around 10x every 16 days).
But as Stanford grad Grant Sanderson lays out in great detail and simplicity, it doesn't work that way as what really happens is a 'logistic curve' as opposed to an exponential curve...
While this video uses Covid-19 as a motivating example, the main goal is simply a math lesson on exponentials and logistic curves. The following video is more focused on Co-19 itself:
Poster Comment:
We are getting a lot of growth now because some nations are beginning to test. The CDC screwed up as did WHO. US state labs are making their own test now. Expect a big jump in reported cases in the US in 2 weeks. Viruses spread less in the summer when the sun raises our vitamin D-3 levels. Some might get the bright idea and get some D-3 supplements.
Once we do testing, we will get a jump to 100,000 cases but that will not mean we are sicker. It will mean we can do better at contact tracing and at quarantines when there is less sunshine.
The doubling of sick people is every 6 days according the Chris Martenson. In 60 days we would double 10 times or 1,000 sick would grow to 1,028 times 1,000 or 1,000 sick would grow to 1,028,000 sick or rather who had been sick. Most would have recovered. In 60 days it will be hot outside in the US. The sun will raise our vitamin D-3 levels. Lots of people will have recovered from mild symptoms. The panic will die out. But it will come back in the winter around election time.