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All is Vanity See other All is Vanity Articles Title: Spreading Information (or FUD) on Social Media Jordan Hall What are the highest priority threat vectors that you are seeing in the unfolding meta-crisis? [All of the below feed back on each-other.] * Medical System Overwhelm. When the number of patients >> "beds" (ventilators, doctors, etc), all harm metrics shift to worse and you get spillover effects into everything else that the medical system is otherwise managing. ETA - now and expanding quickly in both beadth (# cities) and intensity. * Resource depletion. Panic buying (resource allocation issues) combined with shut down supply chains can lead to real or perceived threat (e.g., lack of food). This can lead to crime escalating to civic unrest. ETA - 2 weeks. If supply chain / access disruption continues past 3 weeks begins to move into the red. * Cash depletion. 70% of the population lives paycheck to paycheck. Many will see income drop over the next few days and in many cases to zero, particularly in any sort of quarantine environment. If the disruption lasts 4 weeks (and certainly by 6 weeks) you will have tens of millions of people who can't get access to resources even if the resources are otherwise available. [Special note - different resource are different. Rent and mortgage are subtle and important case likely requiring different approaches than food. Power, water, internet as well.] This cascades into civil unrest and into deeper economic harm. * Supply chain overwhelm. A mix of systemic dynamics put pressure on supply chains. The medical vector (e.g.,) could weaken sensitive areas - either directly or indirectly. Grocery chains closing to protect their workers might exacerbate resource depletion issues. This includes physical infrastructure (i.e., utilities). Normal interruptions of service might take longer to repair - and potentially much larger than normal use of services might overwhelm infrastructure. * Civic infrastructure overwhelm. Reduction in capacity of police, EMS, fire personnel leads to increasing gaps in civic infrastructure. More narrowly, prisons and the homeless are two major areas of concern. As effected populations, as vectors and as systemic risk accelerators. * Pile-on and copycat events. Anyone who has been thinking about dropping an asymmetric attack (particularly biowarfare and cyberwarfare) might see this as a high leverage moment. Nature hitting us with another crisis is part of this threat. * Continuity of governance. Iran has seen this. The relative balkanization and immaturity of the leadership system in the West (prefer inter-elite competition over leadership) means that even small numbers of specific people getting sick could significantly reduce already contingent sense/choicemaking. * Financial System Collapse. 2008 - 2015 were never really healed. Actual systemic economic effects of the virus and the cure (quarantine) could push a number of fragile financial systems into collapse, potentially triggering a systemic collapse globally. Breakdown of global coordination capability since 2008 likely leads to substantially less effective collective response. Potential downward spiral. * Multi-Polar Traps [Geopolitical]. Crisis creates opportunity. Everyone is looking to see how much of the board they can turn their color. Two primary risks: (1) Ordinary geopolitical strategic maneuvering might exacerbate or overwhelm systems in any / all of the above dynamics; (2) Any of the above dynamics might drive race-to-the bottom recklessness. * Multi-Polar Traps [Political]. Same as above but intra-national particularly in the US. If Culture War 2.0 continues unabated amidst the meta-crisis a number of downward spirals can ensue. e.g., viral containment leading to shutdown of elections read as politically motivated leads to civil disobedience reaction - which violates viral containment leading to increasing militarization . . . * Authoritarianism. It is quite likely that a very significant / novel (to our experience) level of authoritarianism will be requested to address the many different aspects of the meta-crisis. Quarantine is one obvious example. This creates a threat of intentional/strategic and unintentional/systemic phase transition into a significant (permanent) increase in authoritarianism at the political level across many different dimensions. * Super-fragility [Whole]. Obviously, the current state is pushing on effectively all systems. From supply chains in general to mental health (watch out for depletion of psychmeds) - we've been pushing everything to the limits increasingly for half a century. More or less everything is near a critical point and as the meta-crisis unfolds, small (ordinary) perturbations could break some other system. What have I missed? Looking for sensitive points and phase transitions and feedback loops. Daniel Joseph Mezick That's a very real threat right now in terms of sensitive points and phase transitions and feedback loops. It is one that can and will throttle all the other disequilibriums you have enumerated here, plus a few more. Nora Bateson Dmitry Shapiro - Forced quarantines are unlikely to be enforceable in US, as our armed macho population doesn't want to be told what to do. American macho/bravado/ego gets in the way of "socialist" alignment. - Trump will do everything in his power to delay or eliminate the next election. If he doesn't he and his family get indicted. - As you point out, Russia (and other adversaries) will take advantage of this disarray and at best undermine rapid recovery.. at worst, who knows? Darrell Grable Daniel Schmachtenberger Daniel Schmachtenberger Also, gov resources redirected opens up bad actor niches, particularly cyber. Joe Brewer There is so much brittle fragility in the globalized system that it wouldn't take much to trigger this cascade and intensify all of the other patterns you've named so far. Kurt Jensen Ted Cooke Bonnitta Roy Bonnitta Roy Shelley Delayne With everyone now communicating online at the same time and streaming entertainment, etc. — and with tech workers just as affected as everyone else — can the internet infrastructure and cell phone infrastructure stay functional, and/or what are the failure potentials there? Because the internet makes a crucial difference. Euvie Ivanova The Galvanization of Dictatorships all around the world and the full implementation of generalized AI-Based control mechanisms seems to be almost granted ? Note that Venezuela's interim-president Guaidó, called a massive march as recent as last week, where most of the population (hundreds of thousands) participated... This seems "too weird to me" must have been some kind of conspiratorial event. Consider that venezuela is already almost completely out of resources. This congregation of hundreds of thousands of people on March 10th is something really sinister, I can't make sense of this. Asi fue la marcha de Guaido contra Maduro hoy 10 Marzo 2020 youtube.com Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes This could be one of the most severe IMO. I was reassured that the basic communication infrastructure is capable and resilient. As long as governments don’t decide to shut them down, that should be ok. 🙏 Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Jason Hughes Dux Garnifex James Burns Lynne DeSilva-Johnson Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes I think we have to look at the possibility of giving ownership to people who rent, because "those-who-have-nothing-to-lose" will probably be the most violent and corrosive for stability that we need. The "State" could implement payment formulas for the owners, but in an Scenario where police is overwhelmed and evictions can't be implemented, the smartest move could be to re-distribute resources over which there is no enforcement of ownership rights anyways. Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Lynne DeSilva-Johnson Dux Garnifex Dux Garnifex Jordan Hall Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes James Burns Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Jamie Wheal Euvie Ivanova Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Mark Frazier Seeding Grass Roots Recovery: New Catalysts for Community Associations (ACIR) academia.edu Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Eli Call 1. From my experience with being a first responder in natural disasters, a HUGE problem is People becoming Numb, dumb, dazed and confused: Think about how people are the day the “unthinkable happens” in Normal everyday life. Like someone dies or is laid off, or runs out of money or food. In my experience in disaster relief this is always a huge problem with people just wandering around in a stupor and causing all kinds of problems and COMMON SENSE goes out the window. 2. Katrina: it took less then 48 hours for people to start fighting and rioting for food and water. 48 Hours. 3. Flow Over of this “Katrina Effect”: When Katrina happened, we all watched on tv the mess, and thought “those poor people in Louisiana.” What happens when the masses watch what happens in ____________ and realize “oh shit, that is about to happen here.” Humans evolved to know what is going on within say 10km. When EVERYONE can see the mess and the masses start freaking out… (yes I said START freaking out) 3. Guns: Depending on what count you read there are about as many guns as there are people in America. Scared Numb, dumb, dazed and confused people with Guns. I’ve never seen that mix before in mass. 4. Food is not grown near where the masses live. 5. By day 2 of the natural disasters I have been to, transportation fuel runs out. Vehicles plug roads so even when fuel is in the region it can’t get in which obviously exasperates Many things. 6. Humans innate desire to survive: For many people that comes at any cost to the detriment of others. Douglas Morris Cultural Trends These may not be crises in short term, but could be crises in long term: (Note: much of the following could be countered by richer online social interactions and communities.) Social movements - interruptions and losses (given urgency due to environmental emergencies), for example, cancellations of major environmental activist events planned for spring; partial replacement of eco-justice media with pandemic response media; movement growth waves interrupted so momentum, networking, identification and resource gathering may decease. Of concern: Declines in movement and NGO activities providing and advocating for various social services. Mental health care interruptions (covered in first point but to emphasize) — medication and therapy (individual and group) decreases may lead to more serious illnesses and symptoms expressing, including alienation, resentment and anti-social personality disorder symptoms; this could exacerbating any of above. More serious in prolonged isolation and distancing. Care giver economy contracts and/or shifts to other exchange system. Decline in religious and spiritual meetings may decrease social support, moral communication and meaning making. F2F culture (especially youth culture) moves from organic to virtual at a time when current youths are developing more interest in social justice and social goods. And: Virtual gaming and entertainment media use increases; expressive and social benefits of expressive arts (such as dance, music and theater) decrease — Increasing addiction and escapism and isolation. More shifting from from political-economic and cultural agency to ludic (self-expressive and experiential) consumption and expression. Education and Legal Systems — extensive disruptions feed into above and vice-versa. There are, of course, creative adaptive responses to some of above. Dux Garnifex Mark How Eugenio Battaglia Brett Alton Brandon Hayes Bob Reid And what is the next, next phase? The central government will wrangle this to the ground, and then what kind of central government will we have? Remember the Patriot act? Albert Sanchez Micro greens & baby veggies have quick 3-4 week grow cycles. Mushrooms are also quick growers. Watch this video 👇 its how Cuba survived food & fuel shortages during the early 90's as well as economic collapse. Key take away: local urban/organic farming. #Organoponicos https://youtu.be/xhfpmKAEfy4 How Cuba Survived Peak Oil youtube.com The model of "Agricultura Urbana" in Cuba is valid, but extremely limited in Scale, not nearly close enough to what is required. Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes Albert Sanchez Adam Paquette Adam Paquette needs solving Poster Comment: Jordan Hall is a graduate of Harvard Law. He is among my acquaintances which I regard as "mainstream smart". Typically more establishment than outlier. The rest range from think they are smart to smartass. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
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