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Health See other Health Articles Title: You Really Have No Idea This isn't a ramble. I have a number of lines of thought I've been stewing over at work all weekend, and I'll be going down each one until I'm done. Let's begin. 4000 is the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. now. (That we know about. Reality could be 100,000 or more.) If that original number doubles seventeen more times, the product is a number larger than the populations of the U.S. (330M), Mexico(137M), and Canada(37M), combined. IOW, it's virtually everywhere in North America at that point. (No, I'm not particularly concerned about the banana republics between Mexico and South America in this regard. They can lump it.) What I've read is that the outbreak is doubling every 4-6 days. So somewhere between 68 and 102 days from today, the shit sandwich on this continent reaches full maturity. If the spread of the disease is moving at that rate. If the current voluntary measures don't halt that growth, or even slow that pace. If it doesn't run out of people stupid enough to keep doing things to spread it. With the above caveats: May 22nd, to June 26th, give or take. It crests 100M cases a week to two earlier. Long before then, we'll have a great view of how lethal it is, and how many cases are serious. So by somewhere between mid-May and Mid-June, we'll either have metric f**ktons of people requiring hospitalization, and dead, or not. How much better or worse it is then will be a foolproof look at whether this is a nothingburger, or Spanish Flu. Oh, and if there are really 100,000 cases now, we get there a full month earlier. Now maybe you can figure out why POTUS said this will last through July or August, at minimum. And remember, the 85% (or more, or less) of all infected people who have symptoms ranging from none, to moderate flu, aren't the problem. They never were. They'll be just fine. It's the hordes dying in droves, and crashing the entire U.S. medical system that could put a kink in this country that'll last for decades. And crashing the stock market. And everyone going broke. And crashing the economy even after this passes. And so on. And so on. And so on. That's 5 1/2 months from now. How much food do you have? That little thought exercise should concentrate your minds wonderfully. ---------- Now, a reminder about some other numbers. 900,000 staffed hospital beds. And when I say staffed beds, I don't just mean doctors, nurses, and RTs. I also mean D.Os, PAs, EMTs, CNAs, pharmacists, radiology techs, facilities engineers, clean-up crew, supply workers, registration clerks, administration people, IT geeks, and hundreds of other clerks and jerks, without whose constant efforts and hard work, plus medical supplies in small mountains every single day, Dr. Hero and Nurse Awesome are just a couple of people in funny pajamas, and with about as much lifesaving ability on their own as there is actual magical ability in Rupert Grint and Matthew Lewis. If it was just beds we needed, we could take all the surplus army cots from the 2M guys RIFFed from Uncle Sam in the 1990s, unfold them, and Presto!, have another 2M spots to dump patients. It doesn't work like that. I bring this up because if "only" 10% of Kung Flu victims require a hospital bed, because they're really that sick, then long about the time we hit 16,000,000 victims, in (44 to 66 days, so let's average it to) 55 days, we have more patients than we have beds for them. At that point, we're Italy. Say about May the 12th or so. (We may also have up to 480,000 dead, which if it happens would have crushed every ICU in the country 5 times over long before that point.) We've covered this before, but it bears keeping in mind. Keep your thumb in this spot, as we move along. ---------- This weekend, all considered, from purely a Kung Flu cases standpoint, was just ducky. Scenario One: You're in the military. In a combat zone. The enemy is known to have chemical weapons. One day, a shell whistles over from the enemy side of things, and goes off with a less than enthusiastic bang. Then another, and another. You see a hazy white cloud forming at each impact site, coalescing into a large white cloud, now drifting lazily towards your position. Do you Scenario Two: You're working in a hospital. An ambulance arrives, and unloads a patient spurting blood everywhere, who tells you he just arrived from the Congo, where he runs an HIV and Ebola Survivors Clinic, and tripped on the jetway and cut his leg open. Do you In case you were wondering, the correct answer to both scenarios is "d". You always assume the worst, from common sense, and institutional policy, and over-prepare, so you can deal with it easily if it turns out to be less-than. You don't grab your .22 to go take on that African Cape Buffalo, and then find out you needed a bit more to get it done. Unless you're a farking moron. I told you that story so I could tell you this one: ---------- Some days back, I stated that I didn't think we'd bring Kung Flu patients into the hospital, but instead, triage them in tents outside, then send the ones meeting criteria to some FEMA-set-up Kung Flu Treatment Center, staffed as possible, and serviced by dedicated Hazmat 9-1-1 ambulances, whisking members of the community there as appropriate, in full protective gear, 24/7/365. Because, as I argued with flawless logic, to do otherwise would be to a) risk our entire healthcare system being overwhelmed and destroyed, a la Italy, and b) make every other medical emergency impossible to deal with, thus doubling casualties from every other treatable and preventable cause of death, from heart attacks and strokes to appendicitis, because the entirety of any and every hospital would be filled with Kung Flu-infected plague petri dishes, in every nook and cranny. Turns out, TPTB, top to bottom, make the Italians look like Leonardo da Vinci. 1) We're not putting tents up everywhere. THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE GETTING. Instead of learning from Italy's mistakes, and trying to save people and the overall healthcare system, we're going to keep on half-assing this until we're in it over our heads, and then drown. Instead of making the hard call early, and working the kinks out now, when it would have been easy, when it's five patients a week, we'll wait until it's 500 patients an hour, and then crash and burn in a glorious orgy of stupidity. I expect people to hit the wall. That last expectation was misguided, being most clearly irrational hubris overcoming a solid and well-founded pessimism about people in general, the universality of the Peter Principle, and the inevitability of people, left to their own devices, shooting themselves in the feet until they run out of feet, or ammunition. And then, reloading. Take care of yourselves. No one is coming to save you. Poster Comment: Author works in an ER on the West Coast Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 64.
#4. To: X-15 (#0)
Pretty logical. Where I am, things are in serious lockdown. Can't drive the car 4 days out of the week, curfew from 9 PM to 6 AM, and can only go out to either work, buy food or medicine, or something of that nature, unless one could get away with a stop somewhere in between for other things. Borders and airports are closed down to international travel. Just over 100 cases so far in the country. I was pretty resigned to the fact that this virus would sweep the country, but with these steps, maybe it will actually work. For now. Until borders are reopened a bit prematurely or some drug runner brings it in from one of the neighboring countries and some latent permanent carrier of the virus sets it loose again. But in the USA, forget it. This kind of lockdown is unconstitutional and we Americans have been brought up with a pretty strong me-first philosophy. On top of that, there is a fair sized segment of society that still considers corona to be no worse than the ordinary flu, something I don't see sufficient evidence of. History in the making, I think. And the carnage generated from the market mayhem may exceed that of the virus directly. All the tricks and cooked book activities of the financial elite over all these years converting the US economy into a very fragile house of cards just needs a catalyst to bring it crashing down, and this may be it. Easily.
How are you liking that country? How long have you been there now?
About 14 years now. I do miss being able to socially interact with anyone. Languages are my weak point. Food is better. Fresh produce year round. Weather is great. Scenery is great. Cheap cost of living. You do have to put up with socialist tendencies, and the influx of Venezuelans has increased not just crime but violent crime as before that, criminals were at least generally non-violent. Cooperative victims generally didn't get hurt at all. In many ways there's more freedom. In some ways, there's less, notably with gun ownership. They can be had but are expensive with a massive 3 digit tax rate. Overall, I think it's a better place to live than the USA.
I have been thinking about making the move. Are you able to make money there?
Only via online, as I'm basically unemployable due to the language barrier. But anyone who can make money from afar would do quite well here. I.e. if you can bring in $2000/month, you are well into middle class living.
Taxes an issue, income or (minor) wealth?
There's a 12% national sales tax on most things. Income from abroad is not taxed. There's a car tax, but gas is subsidized (negative tax?) That might not last too much longer though but it's still cheaper than in the US. Or was until last week. Property taxes are generally very light compared to the US. Overall, the tax burden is light. The 12% sales tax is the bulk of what's paid. If a super wealthy people come in to the country they may be taxed additionally, but doubtless still less than the US rates.
Thank you!
BTW, an alternative place for Americans to emigrate to is Belize. Reasons: It's very easy and cheap to do right now, as you can literally just take a vacation there and never leave, opting to extend your stay with a $25 monthly fee, and after one year of that, you apply for perm residency. And a year or 2 after that, apply for citizenship. Also, it's an officially English speaking country. It's a poorer place overall, which is a disadvantage, and being coastal at that latitude, it is warmer and more humid -- Ecuador mountain living is a lot like Maryland in the spring the whole year. A lot of people's cars are actually golf carts -- good enough to get to the grocery & hardware stores 2-3 miles down the road. Corruption is something to adjust to as well, but it's something to which you do adapt your way of life and not a deal killer. For anyone in the US looking to leave, Belize has some good advantages. Cheap, easy to get in, and English speaking.
My friends and I studied Belize -- some visited it and were initially enthused. They all ended up in (Boquete, Panama) or Chile. Belize is a negro country with lots of bugs to deal with, but the natives are a totally different story than blax in white countries - - mild and benign, never been radicalized. (Yet.) Belize cities are mostly slum, correct? Still lots of people like Belize, especially if they've got a little money. I'd love to leave the US but it's far from simple. The USG has destroyed offshore financial privacy and now double-taxes expats -- does everything it can to stop Americans from leaving. My Panama friends still come back to SC for dental appts ;) You Neil are the only American I've ever personally known or been aware of that's glad he chose Ecuador. If you really are, I'm very happy for you. Do you have friends there -- anybody to advise you on how to get things done, etc.?
Where I am, the biggest racial difference is between the indigenous and European descent. Very different cultures and the 2 groups don't really mix socially. There's no animosity at all, but just no social mixing to any real extent. Indigenous villages often carry out their own form of criminal punishment without sanction from the formal gov. I've never been to Belize but would like to go sometime. So I can't speak for it. One person who had a bad experience was John McCafee. It didn't end well as he refused to be extorted for normal protection by the local police. His dog was killed and then his neighbor was murdered. John was a suspect and fled the country as he refused to submit to what he claimed was complete corruption. So Belize is not for celebrities. Only works for people who are not known to be millionaires. But yes, it's low altitude tropics so lots of bugs are to be expected. At least on the coast. Big bugs too, like roaches almost 2 inches in length and 3/4s of an inch wide. Those are here too but only at lower altitudes. There are some higher altitude areas in the south of Belize that would probably take the edge off the heat that might be tolerable. But either there or right on the coast is best as the ocean effect should keep things cooler. I know a bunch of gringos here. But apart from them, I have few friends, and all I do speak English. Because of the language barrier, socializing is a challenge. That's why I've eyed Belize as it's officially English country. The language barrier is a negative for me here. But as I'm kind of introverted, that's not so bad. But I've been here long enough to get done what I need with day to day things, and I got my 3 small dogs to keep me company. But the USA has about nothing to attract me. Expensive, lots of bureaucracy and taxes, GMO foods run amuck, police that might shoot you and funding of the war machine. I've even thought about renouncing as it's one way to remove big brother concerns, but the current price tag on that is about $4000. A financial version of former East Germany's barbed wire fences and minefields.
I've really enjoyed your overview and perspective of Ecuador etal on this thread. Fascinating....
Glad to hear that. One thing I've learned is when someone expats into a new culture, it really provides a new perspective on life. So much of what we consider to be normal and basic to all people while living in the US suddenly become distinctly American customs. You learn what is human, and what is only American.
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