Computer-modelled forecasts of COVID-19 mortality rates used to justify government lockdown have lost credibility.
On 16th March the White House announced a “worst case” scenario of between 1.5 and 2.2 million deaths from COVID-19. Two weeks later on 31st March the “worst case” projections dropped 90% to between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths. On neither occasion were the underlying assumptions used by the models to create these figures disclosed.
If the models used for government action have been discredited what basis is there for the shut-down measures to remain?
The media has sought to attribute the drop in numbers to the success of the government’s lockdown policy and other social distancing measures. Yet if this was true then Sweden, the only developed country where life continues with relative normality, could expect to have nine times more cases than other countries. This is not the case. Sweden currently has 36 deaths per million of population, higher than the United States at 26 deaths per million, but less that the UK, France, Italy or Spain. If lockdown was the cause of falling mortality rates Sweden would have to have 234 deaths per million. Sweden’s 401 COVID-19 attributed deaths remain below its 505 deaths from flu during the 2018-2019 season. Given the limitations of modelling a return to empirical evidence shows little reason for government measures to remain.
Actual deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are currently 9,302. This figure represents just 23% of the annual 40,000 morality in an average flu season. According to Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz even these figures may overstate the mortality rate due to the way deaths may be automatically attributed to the virus in an infected person rather than following accepted practise of confirming the causal chain to rule out other causes.
Until 2020 no country has shut down its economy and confined its citizens to their homes because of an outbreak of flu. Government action based on data instead of discredited models would restore normal life as soon as possible.
WHAT YOU CAN DO
If you believe the government should take an evidence based approach to COVID-19 here are some things you can do. A suggested email is below.
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Email your elected representatives suggesting regulations are re-assessed in the light of the evidence.