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Health
See other Health Articles

Title: COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study
Source: Reason
URL Source: https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid ... erent-than-flu-says-new-study/
Published: Apr 17, 2020
Author: Ronald Bailey
Post Date: 2020-04-17 20:43:51 by Bill D Berger
Keywords: None
Views: 695
Comments: 4

Between 48,000 and 81,000 residents of Santa Clara County, California are likely to have already been infected by the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, suggests a new study by researchers associated with Stanford University Medical School. The researchers tested a sample of 3,330 residents of the county using blood tests to detect antibodies to determine whether or not they had been exposed to the coronavirus. If the researchers' calculations are correct, that's really good news. Why? Because that data will help public health officials to get a better handle on just how lethal the coronavirus is, and if researchers are right it's a lot less lethal than many have feared it to be.

Currently, the U.S. case fatality rate, that is, the percent of people with confirmed diagnoses of COVID-19 who die, is running at 5.2 percent. But epidemiologists have known that a significant proportion of people who are infected are going undetected by the medical system because either they don't feel sick enough to seek help or are asymptomatic. For example, recent research in Iceland suggests that about 50 percent of people infected with the virus have no symptoms.

In the new study, the researchers sought residents through Facebook to whom they could administer the antibody tests. The results were an unadjusted prevalence of coronavirus antibodies of 1.5 percent. After making various statistical and demographic adjustments, researchers calculated the likely prevalence ranged from 2.49 to 4.16 percent. At the time that these tests were administered, there were about 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 32* deaths from the disease in Santa Clara County. The upshot is that "these prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases."

Using these data, the researchers calculated the infection fatality rate, that is, the percent of people infected with the disease who die: "A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%," they report.* That's about the same infection fatality rate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates for seasonal influenza.

The researchers conclude:

While our study was limited to Santa Clara County, it demonstrates the feasibility of seroprevalence surveys of population samples now, and in the future, to inform our understanding of this pandemic's progression, project estimates of community vulnerability, and monitor infection fatality rates in different populations over time. It is also an important tool for reducing uncertainty about the state of the epidemic, which may have important public benefits.

Assuming that their findings are happily confirmed, among the important public benefits would be a quicker end to the pandemic lockdown we are all experiencing. It's high time the CDC gets it act together and conducts similar antibody population screening to determine the prevalence of the disease across the nation.

*UPDATE: One caveat is that a rough calculation applying the Santa Clara infection fatality rate to New York City's 11,000 COVID-19 deaths would imply that essentially all of city's residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. This seems implausible.

*CORRECTION: I inadvertently used the projected number of 100 deaths from the study instead of the actual figure of 32 deaths on April 2, 2020. I regret the error.

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#1. To: Bill D Berger (#0) (Edited)

Yes, it seems way more widespread and mildly lethal. I understand the wisdom to be cautious, but IMO this is overboard.

As I child I was diagnosed with a terminal case of small cox and I'm still alive. I think we had chicken pox as kids and stayed out of school for a period of time. We lived in the country and had a clean environment, so we built up our immune systems, although that small cox thing scarred me for life.

Edit: I get my measles and chicken pox memories mixed up. Measles was somewhere in there when we were kids. I think my sisters wore white gloves so they wouldn't scratch the itch.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2020-04-17   22:57:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Fred Mertz (#1)

As I child I was diagnosed with a terminal case of small cox

The have pills for that nowadays. ;>)

I think we had chicken pox as kids and stayed out of school for a period of time. We lived in the country and had a clean environment, so we built up our immune systems,

And yet there was no need to shut down the entire country.

Those who most loudly denounce Fake News are typically those most aggressively disseminating it.

During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.

Bill D Berger  posted on  2020-04-17   23:11:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Fred Mertz, Bill D Berger (#1)

Add up the deaths for flu and coronavirus for this year and compare them to 2019's deaths from the flu. Which is greater? Is there a difference.

The Truth of 911 Shall Set You Free From The Lie

Horse  posted on  2020-04-18   0:19:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Bill D Berger (#0)

"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men." -- Samuel Adams (1722-1803)‡

"Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God." -- Thomas Jefferson

ghostdogtxn  posted on  2020-04-18   7:04:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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