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Title: Justin Amash's Libertarian candidacy may act as a spoiler – but that could help Biden
Source: [None]
URL Source: https://www.theguardian.com/comment ... ian-candidacy-spoiler-for-whom
Published: Apr 30, 2020
Author: Rachel Bitecofer
Post Date: 2020-04-30 13:04:52 by BTP Holdings
Keywords: None
Views: 2202
Comments: 5

Justin Amash's Libertarian candidacy may act as a spoiler – but that could help Biden

Rachel Bitecofer

Never Trump Republicans have denounced the congressman’s third-party move but its effect in 2020 is far from certain

Thu 30 Apr 2020 11.35 EDTLast modified on Thu 30 Apr 2020 11.37 EDT Shares 2 Although Justin Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since his exodus from the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress.

Although Justin Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since leaving the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Justin Amash’s announcement that he is exploring a run for president on the Libertarian party’s ticket set off a firestorm of debate as to whether his candidacy helps or hurts Donald Trump’s re-election prospects.

With paranoia of potential “spoiler” effects running high, thebulwark.com/justin-amash-should-not-run-for- president-this-year/">Never Trump Republicans worked hard to deter Amash from running and upon his announcement, influencers in the movement like Jennifer Rubin, Bill Kristol and Tom Nichols immediately denounced his candidacy.

Their wariness is well supported by polling data, which shows www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/gen eral_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html">Biden’s consistent lead over Trump in general election head-to-head polling www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04 /27/biden-leads-trump-2020-amid-coronavirus- concerns/3029325001/">narrows when an independent or third-party option is included. It is important to recognize that voters respond to generic independent or third-party candidate cues from their own ideological frame of reference: a progressive probably pictures a progressive candidate, a conservative, a conservative one.

It isn’t until these choices solidify into actual candidates and are presented to voters in a context that includes named party nominees that “true” third-party or independent receptivity becomes clear. The “pulling from both sides” issue from generic ballots probably distorts the attractiveness of these types of candidates.

Further complicating matters, current polling still reflects the contested and contentious Democratic party nomination process. It will take some time for Democrats to consolidate around their party’s nominee in rates comparable to Republican consolidation around Trump, which averages 90%. The inclusive head-to-head ballot test as well as www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/politics/trump-biden- enthusiasm-gap.html">nominee enthusiasm are still reflecting after-effects from the primary.

We also know that as the election cycle swings into action and campaign activity kicks in, some voters previously open to third- party candidates “come home”– which is why ropercenter.cornell.edu/blog/none-above-polling-and- third-party-candidates">third-party candidates tend to underperform their polled vote shares. The “coming home” effect also affects independents, www.people- press.org/2019/03/14/political-independents-who- they- are-what-they- think/">most of whom are “leaners", voters who initially say they’re independent, but when prompted with a follow-up question asking whether they are more closely aligned to one party or the other, admit to having a party preference. These voters almost always end up voting for the candidate of the party they lean towards, which is why it is possible that Biden’s large advantages on the generic ballot until now may be inflated.

In 2016, the Libertarian party pulled voters from both sides of the ideological spectrum.

Justin’s www.youtube.com/watch? v=lUSDIZTSDDg">unabashed admission to pot use endeared him to thousands of younger voters. But Amash holds policy positions that these voters may find unacceptable. His flirtation with climate denialism and stringent anti-abortion positions will probably diminish his attractiveness amo ng the small – but still significant – portion of former Obama voters that voted for Johnson in 2016. Although Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since his exodus from the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress.

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Poster Comment:

As long as Justin does not spill bong water on himself he should be ok.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 2.

#1. To: BTP Holdings (#0)

That's why "Approval Voting" is better than our current system. Voters can cast a vote for all candidates they "approve" of. So you can vote for both Amash and Trump. All voters can vote f or as many candidates as they want, and the candidate getting the most "approval" from the voter base wins.

Simple, clean, easy to understand, and eliminates wasted vote syndrome and vote spoiling.

Pinguinite  posted on  2020-04-30   14:13:51 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Pinguinite, 4um (#1)

"Approval Voting"

I remember you explaining this years ago. I don't remember if it was at 4um or FU, concussions are funny that way.

Back in the day it made sense, I still think it does today, maybe even more so, given the deep divisions among folks in our country now.

Esso  posted on  2020-04-30   14:33:16 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 2.

#3. To: Esso, BTP Holdings, Pinguinite (#2)

Justin Amash is a Palestinian. Trump supporters should be Zionists. Never vote for him.Biden's minority colaition will lose votes.

Horse  posted on  2020-04-30 16:57:38 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Esso (#2)

I remember you explaining this years ago. I don't remember if it was at 4um or FU, concussions are funny that way.

I've been talking up AV for a long time. I guess it's been more than 15 years now though it doesn't seem anywhere near that. I used to be in a board gaming club and helped put together the bylaws for legal recognition, and when we got to voting time, was introduced to it by other members. Thought it was crazy at first so was dragged kicking and screaming to the idea. Just wasn't used to alternate ideas, as so many people are about so many things.

Pinguinite  posted on  2020-04-30 19:35:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 2.

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