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(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: Justin Amash's Libertarian candidacy may act as a spoiler – but that could help Biden Justin Amash's Libertarian candidacy may act as a spoiler but that could help Biden Rachel Bitecofer Never Trump Republicans have denounced the congressmans third-party move but its effect in 2020 is far from certain Thu 30 Apr 2020 11.35 EDTLast modified on Thu 30 Apr 2020 11.37 EDT Shares 2 Although Justin Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since his exodus from the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress. Although Justin Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since leaving the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Justin Amashs announcement that he is exploring a run for president on the Libertarian partys ticket set off a firestorm of debate as to whether his candidacy helps or hurts Donald Trumps re-election prospects. With paranoia of potential spoiler effects running high, thebulwark.com/justin-amash-should-not-run-for- president-this-year/">Never Trump Republicans worked hard to deter Amash from running and upon his announcement, influencers in the movement like Jennifer Rubin, Bill Kristol and Tom Nichols immediately denounced his candidacy. Their wariness is well supported by polling data, which shows www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/gen eral_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html">Bidens consistent lead over Trump in general election head-to-head polling www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04 /27/biden-leads-trump-2020-amid-coronavirus- concerns/3029325001/">narrows when an independent or third-party option is included. It is important to recognize that voters respond to generic independent or third-party candidate cues from their own ideological frame of reference: a progressive probably pictures a progressive candidate, a conservative, a conservative one. It isnt until these choices solidify into actual candidates and are presented to voters in a context that includes named party nominees that true third-party or independent receptivity becomes clear. The pulling from both sides issue from generic ballots probably distorts the attractiveness of these types of candidates. Further complicating matters, current polling still reflects the contested and contentious Democratic party nomination process. It will take some time for Democrats to consolidate around their partys nominee in rates comparable to Republican consolidation around Trump, which averages 90%. The inclusive head-to-head ballot test as well as www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/politics/trump-biden- enthusiasm-gap.html">nominee enthusiasm are still reflecting after-effects from the primary. We also know that as the election cycle swings into action and campaign activity kicks in, some voters previously open to third- party candidates come home which is why ropercenter.cornell.edu/blog/none-above-polling-and- third-party-candidates">third-party candidates tend to underperform their polled vote shares. The coming home effect also affects independents, www.people- press.org/2019/03/14/political-independents-who- they- are-what-they- think/">most of whom are leaners", voters who initially say theyre independent, but when prompted with a follow-up question asking whether they are more closely aligned to one party or the other, admit to having a party preference. These voters almost always end up voting for the candidate of the party they lean towards, which is why it is possible that Bidens large advantages on the generic ballot until now may be inflated. In 2016, the Libertarian party pulled voters from both sides of the ideological spectrum. Justins www.youtube.com/watch? v=lUSDIZTSDDg">unabashed admission to pot use endeared him to thousands of younger voters. But Amash holds policy positions that these voters may find unacceptable. His flirtation with climate denialism and stringent anti-abortion positions will probably diminish his attractiveness amo ng the small but still significant portion of former Obama voters that voted for Johnson in 2016. Although Amash has tended to vote with Democrats since his exodus from the Republican party, he remains more conservative than 84% of House Republicans in the 116th Congress. Poster Comment: As long as Justin does not spill bong water on himself he should be ok. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top Page Up Full Thread Page Down Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 4.
#1. To: BTP Holdings (#0)
That's why "Approval Voting" is better than our current system. Voters can cast a vote for all candidates they "approve" of. So you can vote for both Amash and Trump. All voters can vote f or as many candidates as they want, and the candidate getting the most "approval" from the voter base wins. Simple, clean, easy to understand, and eliminates wasted vote syndrome and vote spoiling.
When I was a Republican Judge of Election in Chicago (yes you read that right) we caught one of the Democrat Judges trying to pull a fast one by resetting the voting booth and casting a straight Democrat ballot. We nixed that one on the final tally. Did she really think she could get away with it when there were poll watchers on both sides? :-O
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