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Title: So Far, Experts And Expertise Have Not Performed Exactly Brilliantly In This Century
Source: [None]
URL Source: https://www.investmentwatchblog.com ... y-brilliantly-in-this-century/
Published: May 10, 2020
Author: staff
Post Date: 2020-05-10 18:05:43 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 507
Comments: 59

The fallen state of experts: How can governments learn from their expert failings?

Today we have the “rule of experts.” Monopoly experts have the power to choose for you in one field after another, including child protective services, economic policy, and pandemic response. But if you give some humans the monopoly power to choose for other humans, you have created some dangerous incentives. The rule of experts gives you the highest chance of expert failure. We should value expertise, but fear expert power. Whenever possible, then, we should do away with the rule of experts by empowering the people. Let each person choose for themself, and let the experts compete with each other to provide advice. That’s a call for ramping down the power of government bureaucrats and ramping up personal freedom. But you can push that idea only so far with pandemic policy.

Whatever the best policy might have been, at least some restrictions were clearly needed. In the moment of danger, governments cannot avoid turning to experts to help them craft policy. When confronting a pandemic, then, is there nothing a government can do but listen to the epidemiological experts and obey their wizardly words? There may be a few things governments can do to limit “expert failure” in moments of crisis.

Governments should recognise that their experts are, all of them, giving a partial perspective. Apparently, British and American policy was driven primarily by a report whose lead author was Neil Ferguson. That report seems to have considered only one danger: Covid. The one-sided analysis of that report may have left governments in the US and UK insensitive to the possibility that that lockdown itself might create its own fatalities, which might even end up larger than the number of Covid deaths. As economists never tire of reminding us, we are always facing tradeoffs and must adjust along all margins.

Governments should also be more diligent in the pursuit of competing opinions. In his essay, “What is science?” Richard Feynman remarked “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” A government that respects science should be sceptical of experts and, perhaps, more diligently seek out multiple viewpoints. In other words, when governments cannot leave the matters in the hands of the people, it should do what it can to simulate a competitive market for expert advice. A simulation is not the real thing, and we may grimly expect that in future crises governments will again fall victim to expert failure. But a greater effort to engage diversity of expert opinion within and across areas of expertise and a livelier scientific scepticism toward experts and their expertise may at least make expert failure less frequent and less severe.

I would feel better if experts had more skin in the game. Neil Ferguson had a history of being spectacularly wrong in the past, but that cost him nothing.

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#1. To: Ada (#0)

What if these so-called experts knew exactly what they were doing ? I can't believe that these people are operating in an honest fashion.

The potential damage done by the lay offs and commerce shut down should have been considered by anyone with an I.Q. above room temp. This event has been planned for a long time by billionaires and many very well educated evil doers, This shit isn't a mistake it's a fucking attack.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-10   19:56:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: noone222 (#1)

What if these so-called experts knew exactly what they were doing ? I can't believe that these people are operating in an honest fashion.

There it is -- all of it. The article is right but weak -- maybe intended for normies. The politicians and their consultants' whole plan boils down to killing off the white race and mongrelizing the others for an easier job of ruling the world. EVERYTHING THEY DO is dedicated to this specific agenda -- everything!

They're just putting on a show for the dumb sheeple of leading them. Every single "somebody" in or around the fedgov knows this, and at lower levels of powah they're all accomplices via masonry and CAFRs. Everybody in this damn country should see that governors are mini- Stalins too now.

_____________________________________________________________

USA! USA! USA! Bringing you democracy, or else! there were strains of VD that were incurable, and they were first found in the Philippines and then transmitted to the Korean working girls via US military. The 'incurables' we were told were first taken back to a military hospital in the Philippines to quietly die. – 4um

NeoconsNailed  posted on  2020-05-10   20:32:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: noone222 (#1)

The information and news media of this country is rife with hysteria 24 hours a day. The negativism being spewed is appalling.

The sky is NOT falling. Take a daily view of negative oriented articles and postings here on the forum.

Far too much of what we ponder here is useless mind bending horseshit

People need to get a grip.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-10   20:52:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: noone222 (#1)

I agree. Thanks.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2020-05-10   20:56:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Cynicom (#3)

It appears like a mandatory vaccine program is in the works. It looks like they're attempting to split the country on whether or not to open up the country / red states vs. blue states.

This current virus is bullshit ... but you won't convince me that they aren't prepared to release the next one.

I guess we'll see soon enough. I think this is the most vile act I've witnessed in my lifetime and it seems that the so-called authorities are going out of their way to show they mean business. Even when they do open things back up, this event demonstrates that they can always shut it down.

We may have to shoot back.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-10   21:17:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: noone222 (#1)

Scientists might be smarter than the average citizen but they are no more honest. In fact, they have incentive to lie to keep the funding coming.

Ada  posted on  2020-05-10   21:36:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Cynicom (#3)

Horseshit! ;)

_____________________________________________________________

USA! USA! USA! Bringing you democracy, or else! there were strains of VD that were incurable, and they were first found in the Philippines and then transmitted to the Korean working girls via US military. The 'incurables' we were told were first taken back to a military hospital in the Philippines to quietly die. – 4um

NeoconsNailed  posted on  2020-05-10   21:58:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: NeoconsNailed (#7)

Horseshit! ;)

Collar fits. Hope not too tight???

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-10   23:51:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: noone222 (#5)

No.....we need keep this pandemic in proper perspective.

It is NOTHING new to this world or mankind. Such has been going on forever.

The only difference is that with instant world communication, the pandemic brings out all sorts of people, spewing endless conspiracy theories. Everyone with a computer KNOWS full well what is going on, no idea too bizarre.

A tad of rational thinking is needed. The lemmings are in off and running.

History if you recall the "black death" from school. IT STARTED IN China?

"""The plague that caused the Black Death originated in China in the early to mid-1300s and spread along trade routes westward to the Mediterranean and northern Africa. It reached southern England in 1348 and northern Britain and Scandinavia by 1350."""

Good thing no instant communication at that time. That illness originated in China and to this day they have a few every year but are able to contain.

There was no worldwide conspiracy to control the world. No naughty vaccines no bad people shouting run for your lives.

Sanity has lost its foundation here.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   0:23:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: Cynicom (#8)

That's a real stretch ;)

_____________________________________________________________

USA! USA! USA! Bringing you democracy, or else! there were strains of VD that were incurable, and they were first found in the Philippines and then transmitted to the Korean working girls via US military. The 'incurables' we were told were first taken back to a military hospital in the Philippines to quietly die. – 4um

NeoconsNailed  posted on  2020-05-11   1:55:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: Cynicom (#9) (Edited)

banned.video/watch?id=5eb896a0244ac5001d1f3750

We can't know for sure that this outbreak was an accident. We can be certain that China didn't warn anyone of the fact until it was too late for the warning to be of much advantage.

We're pretty certain the virus started in Wuhan where there exists a level 4 bio-lab, while China attempted to convince us that the wet market was responsible.

Love him or hate him, Alex Jones makes it very clear that this event is just the beginning. http://www.infowars.com/ (This is the Sunday show).

Police around the country feel like they have the authority to enforce executive orders issued by mayors, and governors by force and people are being arrested for disobeying the orders. It is being openly discussed that door to door investigations to determine whether anyone in the home has the virus and the removal of those infected by force.

I've never been one to freak out over government overreach because other than one of these invisible attacks and the threat of forced vaccinations has NEVER been suggested. I have never taken a flu shot.

Those creating the upcoming vaccine are requiring immunity for the damage that will undoubtedly occur. Johnson and Johnson is stating that they alone will create 1 billion doses of a new vaccine.

Bill Gates is the primary sponsor of this international vaccination program and he is also a eugenicist that promotes the lowering of population using vaccines.

The mere fact that every MSM outlet is supporting the lock down and vaccine program is disturbing because we know that they are liars. The left leaning political trash of both parties are in trouble for their collusion with the media in trying to spy on Trump and for trying to oust him after the election. The evidence for arresting and trying the politicians and the media that colluded to commit the coup are in serious jeopardy of being imprisoned. Many of those pushing the mandatory vaccines are also involved in pedophile rings that are being discovered.

I'm sure if I wanted to keep listing reasons for concern I could. I'm not so much concerned for my personal safety but that of my children and grand children is definitely a major concern. The rollout of the total surveillance society is also a concern.

Lastly, there are those that wish to control the world. The many organizations that fund the UN, the CDC, and the WHO wish to impose their agenda upon the world and this "bullshit" virus outbreak nonsense is the means by which they intend to implement it. They are serious even if some individuals wish to brush it off or claim it to be a panic stricken public misunderstanding.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   6:54:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: NeoconsNailed, BTP Holdings, Lod, All (#10)

That's a real stretch ;)

Black death plague... Any history teacher or college professor will offer the same history lesson, with no hysteria, no conspiracy theory. It all started in China, originated in small animals, bats etc. Untold millions died. History books have presented it for hundreds of years. Worth reading. That was 700 years ago and has remained constant all that time, without hysteria, conspiracy.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   6:57:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: noone222, All (#11)

I'm sure if I wanted to keep listing reasons for concern I could. I'm not so much concerned for my personal safety but that of my children and grand children is definitely a major concern. The rollout of the total surveillance society is also a concern.

Being a history person plus having parents that survived the Spanish flu pandemic 100 years ago, I see instant information dissemination world wide as containing more than facts or in far too many instances, plain dishonesty.

It is troubling to read many of the posts here on the forum.

Pandemics have been around forever. The current hysteria is embarrassing.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   7:15:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: Cynicom (#13)

It is troubling to read many of the posts here on the forum.

Pandemics have been around forever. The current hysteria is embarrassing.

The country has never been mandated shelter in place by executive orders issued by "mayors" and others ! (Boston Bombing being an exception).

The instigation of panic by the media should also be a tell-tale sign of collusion. I'm not panic stricken. The media is making the general public panic for no reason which is definitely a concern especially when the media and the government thugs are recommending that people snitch on each other. (And they are doing this).

To be blunt, the amount of mass wailing and gnashing of teeth by those supposedly responsible to tell the truth is enough to cause grave concern ESPECIALLY when you know they are lying.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   7:24:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Cynicom, noone222, 4um (#13)

The first, the largest, and the ongoing lie of this scam is the word pandemic. It is not a pandemic which by definition kills a majority of the population, but an epidemic.

Look them up in your Funk & Wagnalls and stop propagating the ignorance.

Off the etimological soapbox.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   7:53:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: Lod (#15)

Excuse me, I didn't use either of those words in my posts on this thread. I would usually refer to it as a Planned-emic ...

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   8:00:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: noone222 (#16)

I included you because you were part of the discussion nothing more.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   8:24:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: noone222 (#14)

The country has never been mandated shelter in place by executive orders issued by "mayors"

I am wondering how such an order from the black female Lesbian Mayor of Chicago would go over in that city? :-/

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke

BTP Holdings  posted on  2020-05-11   8:31:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: Lod, noone222 (#15)

'''The first, the largest, and the ongoing lie of this scam is the word pandemic. It is not a pandemic which by definition kills a majority of the population, but an epidemic.

Look them up in your Funk & Wagnalls and stop propagating the ignorance.

Off the etimological soapbox.

I am often accused of ignorance. In this instance WHO is quoted below.

"""On March 11, the COVID-19 outbreak was characterized as a pandemic by the WHO."""

Any epidemic that spreads worldwide is classified as PANDEMIC..Always.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   9:01:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: Cynicom (#19)

You believe the WHO and their "characterizations"? That's rich.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   9:20:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: Lod (#17)

I ain't mad !

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   9:28:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: Cynicom (#19)

The WHO withheld info related to the person to person transmission of the virus at the request of China !

Get a clue bro !

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   9:29:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: Lod, noone222, All (#20)

You believe the WHO and their "characterizations"? That's rich.

The word PAN by itself means "ALL".

In usage in this case it merely means "ALL" the world.

WE have an epidemic, the world has an pandemic. Dictionary is quite plain on Pan etc etc usage.

Long ago i became aware of usage of word Pan having been offered job by PAN AMERICAN WORLD AIRWAYS. aROUND THE WORLD.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   9:41:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: Lod (#17)

I should have said that I do agree with you about utilizing the proper terminology to describe the situation at hand. And considering the abundance of information regarding the planning of agencies and corporations related to this virus it should definitely be called a Planned-emic.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   9:49:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: noone222 (#24)

I should have said that I do agree with you about utilizing the proper terminology to describe the situation at hand. And considering the abundance of information regarding the planning of agencies and corporations related to this virus it should definitely be called a Planned-emic.

Disturbing to read such.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   10:09:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: noone222, cynicom, neoconsnailed (#11)

We're pretty certain the virus started in Wuhan where there exists a level 4 bio-lab,

Before it was discovered in Wuhan, it was present in France.

http://newsinfopark.com/health/2...-33112/nip-web-desk-team/

And our US strain came from various European countries, not China.

Ada  posted on  2020-05-11   10:20:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: Cynicom, Esso, 4um (#23)

The chinese somehow managed to spread it around the world, but it has not adversely affected the majority of people around the world.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   10:21:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: Cynicom (#25)

Cyni, I usually have a good deal of respect for your opinion relative to most issues we discuss here. This time we'll have to agree to disagree.

This entire event is very disturbing and think we can agree on that.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   10:23:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: Ada (#26)

We know Fauci sent the virus to China to have it jacked up (gain of function) and spent at least 3.7 million dollars of taxpayer money to do it because they could no longer get away with doing it in the US.

I am fairly certain the tests being used to make claims about the virus are inaccurate if not actually determining that all corona virus is reported as Covid-19.

The death tolls are being inflated and hospitals are collecting more funding by claiming everything is Covid-19.

I am not concerned about this hoax but cannot help but think this is simply the beginning and the future will be replete with Covid type mandatory vaccines, home invasions, and lock downs.

Anyone that doesn't view this event as a potential for martial law under the guise of a health issue, should always remember "Hi, I'm from the govt and I'm here to help" or should consider the treatment of Gen. Flynn by the feds.

Ignoring the total take down of society in violation of the Constitutional restraints on government in America (and around the world in violation of civil liberties) is ignoring history and all of the many statements made by Bill Gates over the years, the provisions mandating immunity from prosecution for vaccine producers, and China's major involvement in the manufacture of drugs.

I might suggest that you are "the new normal" !

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   10:40:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: noone222, 4um (#29)

Anyone that doesn't view this event as a potential for martial law under the guise of a health issue, should always remember "Hi, I'm from the govt and I'm here to help" or should consider the treatment of Gen. Flynn by the feds.

The nose is under the tent already.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   10:57:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: Lod (#27) (Edited)

The very high number of people that are asymptomatic that test positive is ridiculous. The contact tracing is another blatant invasion of privacy of everyone you may know and yourself.

This overreach may well cause a civil war in America.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   11:33:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: Lod, 4um (#30)

The nose is under the tent already.

From where I'm at behind enemy lines, it sure looks more like the pecker to me.

Smells like the asshole.

The light that burns twice as bright, burns half as long. - Dr. Eldon Tyrell

Godfrey Smith: Mike, I wouldn't worry. Prosperity is just around the corner.
Mike Flaherty: Yeah, it's been there a long time. I wish I knew which corner.
My Man Godfrey (1936)

Esso  posted on  2020-05-11   11:39:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: noone222, 4um (#31) (Edited)

This overreach may well cause a civil war in America.

As dumbed down as the citizenry is and as militarized as the goob is, it will be the shortest war ever. Unfortunately.

Bill Gates' bug is a wet-dream-come-true for the PTBs.

Now I know why they waited until we were old men.

They can have my black cane when they pry it from my cold, dead, arthritic fingers.

The light that burns twice as bright, burns half as long. - Dr. Eldon Tyrell

Godfrey Smith: Mike, I wouldn't worry. Prosperity is just around the corner.
Mike Flaherty: Yeah, it's been there a long time. I wish I knew which corner.
My Man Godfrey (1936)

Esso  posted on  2020-05-11   11:48:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: noone222 (#29)

I am not concerned about this hoax

If Covid-19 is indeed manmade, I am very concerned of regular repeats of even worse.

Ada  posted on  2020-05-11   12:07:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: Ada (#34)

If Covid-19 is indeed manmade, I am very concerned of regular repeats of even worse.

I'd say that is my primary concern. There are simply too many signs that this is the plan, in my opinion.

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   12:13:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: All (#35)

www.bitchute.com/video/r9MG7YY5CrpL/

"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them. "

The best thing about old age is that it doesn't last forever.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   12:14:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: Esso (#33)

Bill Gates' bug is a wet-dream-come-true for the PTBs.

As as sign of our deep national vulgarization, you never hear people just say "dream" in contexts like that anymore. It's always "wet dream". Similarly people universally refer to their privates as their "junk" -- ad inf.

Put stock reply here -- "I was just trying to be more emphatic":

------------------------------------------------------

_____________________________________________________________

USA! USA! USA! Bringing you democracy, or else! there were strains of VD that were incurable, and they were first found in the Philippines and then transmitted to the Korean working girls via US military. The 'incurables' we were told were first taken back to a military hospital in the Philippines to quietly die. – 4um

NeoconsNailed  posted on  2020-05-11   13:12:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: NeoconsNailed (#37)

Euphemisms are US

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   13:25:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: noone222 (#35)

I'd say that is my primary concern. There are simply too many signs that this is the plan, in my opinion.

And, if so, its not China we should be worried about.

Ada  posted on  2020-05-11   16:52:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#40. To: Ada (#39)

Good luck with that. Neocon machine has spun this up to the point that a false flag is imminent. Or, a global communist hug. Whirled Peas. Coin flip imo. It's coming though, make landing plans now. It's a high surveilance, permission based world at this point. Obey. Or not.

Screen Name  posted on  2020-05-11   17:14:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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