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Title: So Far, Experts And Expertise Have Not Performed Exactly Brilliantly In This Century
Source: [None]
URL Source: https://www.investmentwatchblog.com ... y-brilliantly-in-this-century/
Published: May 10, 2020
Author: staff
Post Date: 2020-05-10 18:05:43 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 6792
Comments: 59

The fallen state of experts: How can governments learn from their expert failings?

Today we have the “rule of experts.” Monopoly experts have the power to choose for you in one field after another, including child protective services, economic policy, and pandemic response. But if you give some humans the monopoly power to choose for other humans, you have created some dangerous incentives. The rule of experts gives you the highest chance of expert failure. We should value expertise, but fear expert power. Whenever possible, then, we should do away with the rule of experts by empowering the people. Let each person choose for themself, and let the experts compete with each other to provide advice. That’s a call for ramping down the power of government bureaucrats and ramping up personal freedom. But you can push that idea only so far with pandemic policy.

Whatever the best policy might have been, at least some restrictions were clearly needed. In the moment of danger, governments cannot avoid turning to experts to help them craft policy. When confronting a pandemic, then, is there nothing a government can do but listen to the epidemiological experts and obey their wizardly words? There may be a few things governments can do to limit “expert failure” in moments of crisis.

Governments should recognise that their experts are, all of them, giving a partial perspective. Apparently, British and American policy was driven primarily by a report whose lead author was Neil Ferguson. That report seems to have considered only one danger: Covid. The one-sided analysis of that report may have left governments in the US and UK insensitive to the possibility that that lockdown itself might create its own fatalities, which might even end up larger than the number of Covid deaths. As economists never tire of reminding us, we are always facing tradeoffs and must adjust along all margins.

Governments should also be more diligent in the pursuit of competing opinions. In his essay, “What is science?” Richard Feynman remarked “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” A government that respects science should be sceptical of experts and, perhaps, more diligently seek out multiple viewpoints. In other words, when governments cannot leave the matters in the hands of the people, it should do what it can to simulate a competitive market for expert advice. A simulation is not the real thing, and we may grimly expect that in future crises governments will again fall victim to expert failure. But a greater effort to engage diversity of expert opinion within and across areas of expertise and a livelier scientific scepticism toward experts and their expertise may at least make expert failure less frequent and less severe.

I would feel better if experts had more skin in the game. Neil Ferguson had a history of being spectacularly wrong in the past, but that cost him nothing.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 33.

#1. To: Ada (#0)

What if these so-called experts knew exactly what they were doing ? I can't believe that these people are operating in an honest fashion.

The potential damage done by the lay offs and commerce shut down should have been considered by anyone with an I.Q. above room temp. This event has been planned for a long time by billionaires and many very well educated evil doers, This shit isn't a mistake it's a fucking attack.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-10   19:56:45 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: noone222 (#1)

The information and news media of this country is rife with hysteria 24 hours a day. The negativism being spewed is appalling.

The sky is NOT falling. Take a daily view of negative oriented articles and postings here on the forum.

Far too much of what we ponder here is useless mind bending horseshit

People need to get a grip.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-10   20:52:24 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Cynicom (#3)

It appears like a mandatory vaccine program is in the works. It looks like they're attempting to split the country on whether or not to open up the country / red states vs. blue states.

This current virus is bullshit ... but you won't convince me that they aren't prepared to release the next one.

I guess we'll see soon enough. I think this is the most vile act I've witnessed in my lifetime and it seems that the so-called authorities are going out of their way to show they mean business. Even when they do open things back up, this event demonstrates that they can always shut it down.

We may have to shoot back.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-10   21:17:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: noone222 (#5)

No.....we need keep this pandemic in proper perspective.

It is NOTHING new to this world or mankind. Such has been going on forever.

The only difference is that with instant world communication, the pandemic brings out all sorts of people, spewing endless conspiracy theories. Everyone with a computer KNOWS full well what is going on, no idea too bizarre.

A tad of rational thinking is needed. The lemmings are in off and running.

History if you recall the "black death" from school. IT STARTED IN China?

"""The plague that caused the Black Death originated in China in the early to mid-1300s and spread along trade routes westward to the Mediterranean and northern Africa. It reached southern England in 1348 and northern Britain and Scandinavia by 1350."""

Good thing no instant communication at that time. That illness originated in China and to this day they have a few every year but are able to contain.

There was no worldwide conspiracy to control the world. No naughty vaccines no bad people shouting run for your lives.

Sanity has lost its foundation here.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   0:23:14 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: Cynicom (#9) (Edited)

banned.video/watch?id=5eb896a0244ac5001d1f3750

We can't know for sure that this outbreak was an accident. We can be certain that China didn't warn anyone of the fact until it was too late for the warning to be of much advantage.

We're pretty certain the virus started in Wuhan where there exists a level 4 bio-lab, while China attempted to convince us that the wet market was responsible.

Love him or hate him, Alex Jones makes it very clear that this event is just the beginning. http://www.infowars.com/ (This is the Sunday show).

Police around the country feel like they have the authority to enforce executive orders issued by mayors, and governors by force and people are being arrested for disobeying the orders. It is being openly discussed that door to door investigations to determine whether anyone in the home has the virus and the removal of those infected by force.

I've never been one to freak out over government overreach because other than one of these invisible attacks and the threat of forced vaccinations has NEVER been suggested. I have never taken a flu shot.

Those creating the upcoming vaccine are requiring immunity for the damage that will undoubtedly occur. Johnson and Johnson is stating that they alone will create 1 billion doses of a new vaccine.

Bill Gates is the primary sponsor of this international vaccination program and he is also a eugenicist that promotes the lowering of population using vaccines.

The mere fact that every MSM outlet is supporting the lock down and vaccine program is disturbing because we know that they are liars. The left leaning political trash of both parties are in trouble for their collusion with the media in trying to spy on Trump and for trying to oust him after the election. The evidence for arresting and trying the politicians and the media that colluded to commit the coup are in serious jeopardy of being imprisoned. Many of those pushing the mandatory vaccines are also involved in pedophile rings that are being discovered.

I'm sure if I wanted to keep listing reasons for concern I could. I'm not so much concerned for my personal safety but that of my children and grand children is definitely a major concern. The rollout of the total surveillance society is also a concern.

Lastly, there are those that wish to control the world. The many organizations that fund the UN, the CDC, and the WHO wish to impose their agenda upon the world and this "bullshit" virus outbreak nonsense is the means by which they intend to implement it. They are serious even if some individuals wish to brush it off or claim it to be a panic stricken public misunderstanding.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   6:54:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: noone222, All (#11)

I'm sure if I wanted to keep listing reasons for concern I could. I'm not so much concerned for my personal safety but that of my children and grand children is definitely a major concern. The rollout of the total surveillance society is also a concern.

Being a history person plus having parents that survived the Spanish flu pandemic 100 years ago, I see instant information dissemination world wide as containing more than facts or in far too many instances, plain dishonesty.

It is troubling to read many of the posts here on the forum.

Pandemics have been around forever. The current hysteria is embarrassing.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   7:15:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Cynicom, noone222, 4um (#13)

The first, the largest, and the ongoing lie of this scam is the word pandemic. It is not a pandemic which by definition kills a majority of the population, but an epidemic.

Look them up in your Funk & Wagnalls and stop propagating the ignorance.

Off the etimological soapbox.

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   7:53:39 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: Lod, noone222 (#15)

'''The first, the largest, and the ongoing lie of this scam is the word pandemic. It is not a pandemic which by definition kills a majority of the population, but an epidemic.

Look them up in your Funk & Wagnalls and stop propagating the ignorance.

Off the etimological soapbox.

I am often accused of ignorance. In this instance WHO is quoted below.

"""On March 11, the COVID-19 outbreak was characterized as a pandemic by the WHO."""

Any epidemic that spreads worldwide is classified as PANDEMIC..Always.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   9:01:16 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: Cynicom (#19)

You believe the WHO and their "characterizations"? That's rich.

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   9:20:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: Lod, noone222, All (#20)

You believe the WHO and their "characterizations"? That's rich.

The word PAN by itself means "ALL".

In usage in this case it merely means "ALL" the world.

WE have an epidemic, the world has an pandemic. Dictionary is quite plain on Pan etc etc usage.

Long ago i became aware of usage of word Pan having been offered job by PAN AMERICAN WORLD AIRWAYS. aROUND THE WORLD.

Cynicom  posted on  2020-05-11   9:41:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: Cynicom, Esso, 4um (#23)

The chinese somehow managed to spread it around the world, but it has not adversely affected the majority of people around the world.

Lod  posted on  2020-05-11   10:21:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: Lod (#27) (Edited)

The very high number of people that are asymptomatic that test positive is ridiculous. The contact tracing is another blatant invasion of privacy of everyone you may know and yourself.

This overreach may well cause a civil war in America.

noone222  posted on  2020-05-11   11:33:33 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: noone222, 4um (#31) (Edited)

This overreach may well cause a civil war in America.

As dumbed down as the citizenry is and as militarized as the goob is, it will be the shortest war ever. Unfortunately.

Bill Gates' bug is a wet-dream-come-true for the PTBs.

Now I know why they waited until we were old men.

They can have my black cane when they pry it from my cold, dead, arthritic fingers.

Esso  posted on  2020-05-11   11:48:28 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 33.

#37. To: Esso (#33)

Bill Gates' bug is a wet-dream-come-true for the PTBs.

As as sign of our deep national vulgarization, you never hear people just say "dream" in contexts like that anymore. It's always "wet dream". Similarly people universally refer to their privates as their "junk" -- ad inf.

Put stock reply here -- "I was just trying to be more emphatic":

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NeoconsNailed  posted on  2020-05-11 13:12:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 33.

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