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Title: America vs. Russia: Brinksmanship With Nuclear Bombers Risks Starting a Disastrous War
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URL Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/s ... starting-disastrous-war-168851
Published: Sep 14, 2020
Author: Jason Ditz
Post Date: 2020-09-14 08:40:10 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 184
Comments: 14
B-52s vs. Russian jets in the Black Sea could start a crisis that spark a war no one would ever want. In the past few months, the Black Sea is a lot less quiet than it ought to be. A mostly land-locked sea with decades of treaties designed to keep interlopers from sending warships into the area willy-nilly, the source of tension is in the skies, with U.S. planes showing up just outside of Russian airspace. There have been times where such interceptions are reported twice or even thrice a week, usually with Russian Su-27 fight jets intercepting U.S. Navy surveillance planes that were moving to the outskirts of Russia’s airspace. This culminated at the end of August, with an overflight by U.S. strategic bombers of the entire NATO alliance. Nominally a show of solidarity, it quickly became provocation when one of the bombers, a nuclear-capable B-52, made a beeline for the Black Sea, and headed for Russian airspace. An interception followed, and the usual U.S. complaining about how “unprofessional” that was. An incident with spy planes happened at the same time. One might be forgiven for mistaking this for more of the same, but it is now being reported that the whole thing was deliberately a ploy by the United States, whereby they baited the Russians with a B-52, and then used the surveillance planes to collect data on Russia’s interception capabilities. Officials were positively beaming about the success of it all. Even a casual look from the Russian perspective shows that this is wildly different from the other interceptions, and potentially much more dangerous. The difference is that this involves a nuclear-capable bomber. The B-52 in question, with the call-sign NATO01, was built in 1961, at the height of the Cold War. This was exactly what nuclear attacks looked like in the minds of Russian defense officials back then, and then in the midst of all these interceptions of spy planes, a B-52 shows up near the home of the Black Sea Fleet. Russia could only conclude this was a major provocation, and the quick interception was the response. U.S. Air Force claims of offense for the interception are particularly empty here, because not only was it an obvious reaction, the claims of having baited the Russians reveals they were counting on that reaction. Given the decades of tit-for-tat interceptions of strategic bombers between the United States and Russia, they couldn’t possibly have expected anything else. If anything, the complaints of “unsafe” interception underscore the real problem, that this whole operation was entirely unsafe, deliberately provocative with nuclear assets, and risked the sort of civilization-ending misunderstanding that typified Cold War nightmares. Surveillance intelligence on Su-27 and Su-30 planes, which have forty-three and twenty-one years in operation, respectively, should be only superficially illuminating for the Pentagon, given these are major Russian fighter jets that have no doubt been a focus throughout their active lives. Decades ago, intelligence on brand new models may have been very important. There could have been a discussion, may back when, despite the huge risk of consequences that it was a risk to take. These days that no longer appears to be the case. So why did it happen? Justifying a huge U.S. military budget year after year involves maintaining the appearance of imminent war with other major powers, especially Russia. That sometimes means being provocative, and for those buying into the narrative, it looks to justify risk-taking behavior. It is that mentality that has U.S. nuclear bombers speeding toward Russia sometimes. Responsibility, not political expediency, should inform all such activity, and while it may seem counterintuitive to the military brass, the priority should always be avoiding provoking a worldwide nuclear conflagration. If they did so, there would be a lot less near-miss overflights around Russian territory, and a lot less concern about pilots dealing with unsafe interceptions. In 2020, with ongoing efforts to save the nuclear arms limitation treaty process, the goal should be maintaining a sense of security that nations with retaliatory capabilities aren’t facing an imminent nuclear first-strike. That is an environment more conducive to talks, and that is an environment where bomber interceptions never have to happen. Even the official purpose of these overflights, NATO solidarity, should be disposed of to avoid misunderstandings. Strategic bombers should not make anyone in NATO feel safer—a replacement for New START should make them feel safer. This is an important time for talks, and that should be the priority.
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#1. To: Ada (#0)
Horseshit....
Where is Major Kong? ;) "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke
Where is Major Tom?
“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken
He was riding the bomb to glory. ;) "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke
The Black Sea is only somewhat international for sea going vessels. I believe international treaties provide that countries that do not have Black Sea coastline are only permitted to be present in the Black Sea for a few weeks before being obligated to depart.
A single B-52 is NOT a "major provocation". Nigga pleeze..... “With the exception of Whites, the rule among the peoples of the world, whether residing in their homelands or settled in Western democracies, is ethnocentrism and moral particularism: they stick together and good means what is good for their ethnic group." The Montreux Convention provides for free merchant traffic during peacetime. Naval traffic by non-littoral powers (like the US) is limited in passage through Turkish controlled straits is confined in terms of tonnage and duration in the waters of the Black Sea. All aircraft have to maintain flight along predetermined air lanes. The addition of Romania and Bulgaria to NATO when added to members Greece and Turkey gives the United States some room to maneuver in the Black Sea but not unlimited licence. Still, this is a thumb in Putin's eye.
Indeed... We have been playing cat and mouse with Russia since BEFORE the end of WWII.
Putin annexed the Crimean peninsula since he said the population there was a majority ethnic Russian, rather than Ukrainian. Crimea has been a hot spot ever since The Charge of the Light Brigade. ;) "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke
As indeed they are and voted overwhelmingly requesting annexation.
Crimea has been a hot spot ever since The Charge of the Light Brigade. ;) There was one video I saw that explored the sentiments of the Crimeans. The basic take away seemed to be that the Crimeans, being ethnic Russians, were largely neglected at a political level by the Ukrainian gov since forever, which would be about 60-70 years since Khrushchev gave them to the Ukraine in the 50's, so they were pretty happy to rejoin Russia, and their infrastructure has improved somewhat since then. I wouldn't down at all the Putin and much of Russia is all to willing to do everything to ensure they wouldn't regret the decision. Building that bridge to connect Crimea to the Russian mainland certainly went a long way I'm sure.
At least that bridge was not like The Bridge to Nowhere which was built in Alaska. ;) "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke
And the color revolution putschists of the previous administration couldn't have done more to antagonize those Russians, both inside and outside the borders of the Russian republic. They did an excellent job helping Putin to cement in his position as a national leader. The Black Sea region is one of those seismic tension zones where things could snap. I see that we are upping the ante today in joint maneuvers with the Greek army on the border with Turkey. Erdogan answers with tanks of his own moving westward. I swear, I don't know what we're up to, and your guess is as good as mine, but I get the feeling that having failed at producing a coup in Ankara, we are pushing Erdogan to do something stupid. He's in a tight spot financially, and he has proven himself to be as recklessly adventurous as Uncle Sugar - if on a somewhat smaller scale. I wouldn't put it past the big heads in Washington to attempt to lure Turkey so far into disaster that friendly Turkish forces take the Republic of Turkey out of the hands of Islamist adventurers and bring it under control of a more reliable traditional secular regime. A regime at any rate that can be trusted to host the Incirlik base and the 50 or so B-61 nuclear gravity bomb that we have stored there. That base and those bombs rate scant mention in mainstream press reporting. They're kind of a dirty secret, and we want to keep them there because they are a thumb in Putin's eye.
Not to mention Erdogan has been rattling sabres over the mosque in Jerusalem. Nothing else could inflame the ire of Netanjoohoo more than this. I hope the Turks are ready for Ankara to be reduced to a pile of ash. ;) "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke
#2. To: Ada (#0)
The B-52 in question, with the call-sign NATO01, was built in 1961
#3. To: BTP Holdings (#2)
#4. To: Lod (#3)
Where is Major Tom?
#5. To: Ada (#0)
#6. To: Ada (#0)
a B-52 shows up near the home of the Black Sea Fleet. Russia could only conclude this was a major provocation, and the quick interception was the response.
-Alex Kurtagic 
#7. To: Pinguinite (#5)
#8. To: X-15 (#6)
A single B-52 is NOT a "major provocation". Nigga pleeze.....
#9. To: randge (#7)
Still, this is a thumb in Putin's eye.
#10. To: BTP Holdings (#9)
Putin annexed the Crimean peninsula since he said the population there was a majority ethnic Russian, rather than Ukrainian.
#11. To: BTP Holdings (#9)
Putin annexed the Crimean peninsula since he said the population there was a majority ethnic Russian, rather than Ukrainian.
#12. To: Pinguinite (#11)
Building that bridge to connect Crimea to the Russian mainland certainly went a long way I'm sure.
#13. To: Pinguinite (#11)
(Edited)
I wouldn't down at all the Putin and much of Russia is all to willing to do everything to ensure they wouldn't regret the decision.
#14. To: randge (#13)
he has proven himself to be as recklessly adventurous as Uncle Sugar - if on a somewhat smaller scale.
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