This is a good year to run for Congress as a Republican.
Any Republican Congressional candidate would receive more than 54 percent of the vote, a Democrat about 42 percent, according to a Trafalgar Group survey in the first week of February.
NEW: @COSProject/@trafalgar_group (R)
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Republicans 54% (+12) Democrats 42%
1,073 LV | 2/2-2/6
Sample: D39/I25/R36https://t.co/AYASroFavk
— PPUSA (@PollProjectUSA) February 15, 2022
Significantly, the survey oversampled Democrats, 39.3 percent to 35.6 percent, and women, who tend to more commonly vote Democrat, 53.3 percent to 46.7 percent.
Also of significance was in the age group 25 to 34, where 63 percent favored a Republican candidate. And those same young adults registered a zero in responding to the question “Do you believe Biden’s policies to fix inflation will help America’s economic recovery?” In fact, 76 percent answered that Biden’s inflation policies would hurt U.S. economic recovery and 24 percent were “uncertain” whether they would help or hurt.
Nevertheless, in that prime 25-34 parenting age, a substantial 63 percent did not believe parents should have greater authority than teachers’ unions in directing local school district education policies. Split between men and women, half of the women surveyed sided with the unions, while 60 percent of men came down on the side of parents.
With their dependence on and taking for granted of support from minorities, Democrats reviewing the Trafalgar Group survey may be unnerved to find those voters are in play.
Black respondents favored Republican candidates by 31 percent, Hispanics by 51 percent.
And despite Democrat attempts to paint suspicion of China as racist, the highest percentage of respondents believing “growing aggression from China is a threat to America” were Asians at nearly 80 percent.
Also, substantial percentages across all ethnic groups believed “police departments can be fully funded, prosecutors tough on crime, and officers who abuse their power properly disciplined” – Asian, 72 percent; black, 77 percent; Hispanic, 88 percent; white, 80 percent; “Other,” 60 percent.
Respondents also favored Republican candidates and their positions on secure borders, Fentanyl from China causing deaths, and domestic oil and gas production.
Given the data, Republicans may be approaching a major landslide in Congress.
But what will they do with it? To date, Republicans have not articulated plans like the Contract with America developed by Reps. Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey for the 1994 Congressional election which saw the GOP retake both the House and Senate.
Yet, Democrats think something is up.
Note how those favoring Democrat candidates responded to the question, “If Republicans win control of Congress in the 2022 elections, how confident are you that they will follow through on their promises to try to block or undo Biden’s policies and agenda?”
Democrat-inclined respondents were almost 56 percent “very confident” of it, nearly 25 percent “somewhat confident.” That’s about 80 percent.
Those favoring Republicans were a bit more reserved – 39 percent very confident of Republicans following through, 44 percent somewhat confident, for a total of about 83 percent.
The Trafalgar Group survey had 1,073 likely general election voters responding with a margin of error of 2.99 percent.
Of course, the poll that really counts is the one you go to on election day. And while a tide seems to be building for the GOP, in terms of political time, the midterm election is a long, long way off.