Le Pen upset of Macron in France could upend NATO and give Putin a boost, analysts say Melissa Rossi - 12 April 2022 5:04 PM
With everything from the cohesion of the European Union to the strength of NATO hanging in the balance, the unexpectedly strong challenge of the far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen to the centrist President Emmanuel Macron is giving many French citizens a sense of déjà vu mixed with dread.
“The social climate in France is tense,” Mathias Bernard, political historian and president of the University of Clermont Auvergne, told Yahoo News.
In 2017, Macron trounced Le Pen in the presidential election, winning 66% of the vote to her 34%. Since then, traditional loyalties have become more starkly divided, with the urban/rural divide exacerbated by spiking energy prices. Macron and Le Pen, the winners of Sunday’s first round, which whittled down the candidates from 12 to two, will now face off on April 24.
Campaign posters for President Emmanuel Macron of France, the centrist LREM party candidate for re-election, and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party, as seen in Mitry-Mory, outside Paris, on March 22. (Benoit Tessier/Reuters)<,br> © Provided by Yahoo News US
Campaign posters for President Emmanuel Macron of France, the centrist LREM party candidate for re-election, and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party, as seen in Mitry-Mory, outside Paris, on March 22. (Benoit Tessier/Reuters) Macron himself underscored the uncertainty of the moment, warning supporters last Sunday, when he pulled in over 27% of the vote, that “Nothing is decided.”
After traveling the country on a charm offensive during which she promised to be “the voice of the forgotten,” Le Pen pulled in more than 23% of votes in the first round — the highest ever for a far-right candidate — and told her fans on Sunday that she was confident that in the final round the French would “vote for our civilization, our culture, our language.”
Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who took a hefty 21 percent of the vote Sunday, called the upcoming runoff between Macron and Le Pen a “choice between two evils.” "We know who we will never vote for,” Mélenchon said, adding, “Not a single vote must go to Mme. Le Pen."
French far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon comments on the preliminary results of the first round of the presidential election in Paris on April 10. (Michel Spingler/AP)
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With the final outcome hinging on the decisions of those who originally backed Mélenchon, “The result of the second round remains uncertain,” Bernard said, partly because Mélenchon declined to endorse Macron. Surveys also indicate that a third of the 7.7 million people who voted for him may indeed back the far-right candidate, and another third may skip the final round altogether, making the election a nail-biter. A post-election poll Sunday night showed Macron with 51% support to 49% for Le Pen. Other polls give Macron an eight-point lead, but analysts warn that the situation is in flux and that the final results could be a game-changer not only for France, but for the West.
“This election could possibly reshape not only France, but reshape Europe and reshape the world's security order,” historian Andrew Hussey, a political essayist for the British magazine the New Statesman who has lived in Paris for two decades, told Yahoo News. The White House is likewise concerned, fearing that Le Pen would yank France out of NATO — or at least from the military side of the alliance.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen poses for a selfie with a supporter at a campaign rally in Perpignan, southern France on April 7. (Joan Mateu Parra/AP)
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Philippe Waechter, chief of economic research at Ostrum Asset Management in Paris, calls the impressive turnout for Le Pen a “wake-up call” — and not only for financial markets. He fears that a Le Pen victory would weaken the EU as a unified political institution, particularly in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “With Le Pen as president,” he told Yahoo News, “we risk that she would work with Putin more than with Europe. And in that case, the capacity of Europe to be strong and to be a real negotiator with Russia will vanish.”
What makes this election more volatile and unpredictable is that French society finds itself at a moment of heightened discontent, due to the rapid increase in the cost of living, which voters in one recent poll described as their No. 1 concern. The price of gasoline has soared to over $8 a gallon in recent weeks, electricity prices have more than tripled this winter, and inflation has exceeded 7%.
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Poster Comment:
If Le Pen defeats Macron it will give a big boost to right wing politics in Europe.