By Graham Summers, MBA
The longer Im in this business, the clearer it becomes that no one actually reads anymore. Everyone simply trumpets headlines, or retweets articles, without looking at the data.
The latest and most glaring example of this is the claim that inflation has peaked. Everywhere you look in the media (and on social media) people repeat this statement as if it is a fact.
It is not. Inflation has not peaked. And the data confirms this.
Almost ALL of the drop in inflation data has come from energy prices falling. And energy prices have fallen because the Biden administration dumped over 250 MILLION barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
To put this into perspective, its nearly 40% of the SPR. And the Biden admin dumped it in the span of less than two years. THAT is why energy prices dropped, which accounts for almost ALL of the drop in inflation data.
See for yourself. Outside of the drop in energy prices, the only significant drop in prices occurred in used car vehicles. Everything else is still RISING in price year over year.
I bring all of this up because now that the Biden admin is no longer dumping tens of millions of barrels of oil on the open market, energy prices are bottoming.
Oil has bottomed and is starting to turn up.
The situation is even uglier for gasoline.
So, unless President Biden wants to empty the SPR to zero, this inflation has peaked narrative is over. Inflation is coming back in a big way. And NO ONE is positioned for it.
I expect hyperinflation as soon as foreigners dump dollars for commodities. This will be before November 2024.