Finally some truth about the real state of the Ukrainian military is sneaking into main stream media. It is as bad, still not fully disclosed, as we have described it again and again.
As the Washington Post provides:
Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow
Ill leave out the propaganda bits and go for the factual beef. The quotes are long but needed to grasp the depth of horrible situation.
The opening paragraph:
The quality of Ukraines military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyivs readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.
That spring offensive is as likely to happen as the announced relief campaign to unblock Bakhmut. The later is bogged down in mud which will only become worse over the next few weeks.
The spring campaign will be made up of green recruits which will use a wild mix of weapons they are not familiar with. Unless there are some western surprises I see no way how it can overwhelm the well prepared Russian defense lines.
Back to the piece:
[Á]n influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.The most valuable thing in war is combat experience, said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. Its heaven and earth.
And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience, Kupol added. Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.
Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital.
Ukrainian losses, estimated to be nearer to 200,000 than to 100,000 dead with even more wounded, are especially felt at the lower command level. One can not just take a salesman or teacher from the street and put them into a junior command role.
Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.Theres always belief in a miracle, he said. Either it will be a massacre and corpses or its going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.
It indeed will need a miracle for the counteroffensive to become anything but a massacre.
One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a symbolic amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.If you have more resources, you more actively attack, the senior official said. If you have fewer resources, you defend more. Were going to defend. Thats why if you ask me personally, I dont believe in a big counteroffensive for us. Id like to believe in it, but Im looking at the resources and asking, With what? Maybe well have some localized breakthroughs.
We dont have the people or weapons, the senior official added. And you know the ratio: When youre on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We cant afford to lose that many people.
The U.S. is not going to ask if the Ukraine can afford the losses. It will push for a large attack which will have little chance to even get out of its preparation phase.
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