(Ill keep this post updated. I might start more posts, but Ill link them here.)
5:45 AM EST
Well, Wagner is now in control of the Southern Command in Rostov. That is pretty clear.
This is the translation:
He says hes going to Moscow. There are reports that there are Wagner forces moving on Moscow.
Well just have to wait and see.
Its interesting that Putin didnt mention Prigozhin by name in the speech, while Prigozhin has also avoided mentioning Putin.
It might just be that they both know the other is the other most popular person in the country.
The idea they are cooperating in 12th dimensional black hole portal chess, as many popular accounts are reporting, seems relatively far out at this point. But there being some kind of negotiation between Putin and Prigozhin seems like it could be on the table.
I dont know. Who the hell knows. There arent really experts on this to look to, and Ive got no idea what is going on. I know that as soon as I saw that video of Prigozhin yelling in front of the corpses, it looked to me like he was going to do a coup, and the same people who said that was just disinformation are now saying this whole current scene is disinformation.
But, it looks like well have a better view of things in a few hours.
I shall keep thee abreast.
2:25 AM EST
Quite frankly, as soon as I saw that video of Prigozhin yelling in front of a pile of corpses, I said this guy is planning a coup.
You know, hes half Jewish.
After that, I kept my eyes open, but it did seem like there was a chance that the whole thing was total theater designed to mess with the Ukrainians/Americans.
Now, it appears shit has gotten real.
Prigozhin has declared a coup, and ordered men to march toward Rostov, the Russian city closest to the former Ukraine border.
This video is being shared of Russian military allegedly in a shootout with Wagner in or near Rostov.
He is supposedly now in control of the command headquarters in Rostov, which is a major Russian military installation. I dont understand how he would have just seized that, but okay.
There is video of him there, and he says hes now in command. Apparently, no one is challenging him, despite the fact there is an arrest warrant for him.
Apparently at least, as far as anyone can tell Prigozhins agenda here is only to capture and hold the military base in Rostov and force Putin to make him Minister of Defense. He is not actually trying to overthrow the government.
To be clear, Prigozhin is the second most popular person in Russia, second only to Putin.
As of right now, as I write, Putin has just given a speech declaring Prigozhin an enemy of the state.
https://youtu.be/kTRHfzjNJHs
There are tanks on the streets of Moscow for the first time since the 1990s.
Preceding this, in the nighttime on Friday, Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense of bombing his guys. There are no videos of this, and its been concluded that is obviously fake. It would not make any sense. If Putin wanted Prigozhin out, he would just be assassinated. And if the MoD bombed Wagner without Putins permission, the head of the MoD would get assassinated (or at least arrested).
He is reporting that, and the New York Times is reporting that Russian media hasnt said that.
I never publicly said that I was worried about a coup, because that did not seem appropriate. But several people can confirm I said this in private, including prominent people. I mean, obviously I would have thought that, because I have a very good sense.
However
I would not have thought it would happen like this. Wagner would need a bigger force, or at least a more strategic ability to strike the Kremlin and arrest the current government. There are scenarios I can see where that would have been possible some time in the next 18 months, but this thing they are doing now is just wild.
It seems to me that there is still a possibility that this is all fake, that it is designed in order to get the Ukraine to try to push. The Putin speech definitely makes that a lot less likely. I think most likely, this is really happening, and it is a pretty big problem.
Im not sure if Putin can just make a deal with Prigozhin if hes already killed Russian soldiers. I think that might be a point of no return. (But it is also not clear that happened.)
That said how is it possible that Putin would not have a guy around Prigozhin ready to kill him if given the order? Youd think hed have to have a guy in place, right? I would think that would be standard KGB procedure regardless, let alone after hed made all those videos attacking the military, after I was sitting here thinking that guy looks like hes planning a coup right?
There is nothing clear right now, but the Russian media is reporting all of this, Putin is giving speeches, we have videos of shootings.
Prigozhin might be on drugs or drunk. I dont understand why else he would move like this. In my view, previously, he did have a decent chance for some kind of march on the Kremlin, but there is no way he is going to march from Rostov with 20,000 men. I mean, he doesnt have enough guys to fight the cops, and hes not made any overtures towards the military or the cops to side with him against Putin.
Hes not even talking about Putin, except to say that Putin is being deceived.
My general thought here is that this is real, but that Putin is going to make a deal. Its also possible Putin knew about this or planned it himself for some reason.
Well see.
I will keep you abreast.