There is likely to be a major gap in the primary calendar before the state hosts its vote. The usual knife-fighting there could get even bloodier.
Two recent polls from GOP firms gave former President Donald Trump a 23- point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But Trump was also at 41 percent, lower than national polls, thanks mostly to Sen. Tim Scott and former Gov. Nikki Haley each pulling around 10 percent. | Getty / Branden Camp/Getty Images
South Carolina has long been the state most likely to predict the eventual winner of the Republican presidential nomination.
This cycle, it will likely be even more crucial.
The state Republican Party’s decision to schedule its election for Feb. 24 means the first-in-the-South primary will potentially take place more than a month after Iowa and New Hampshire. That open stretch means South Carolina is poised to carry more weight than ever in determining whether former President Donald Trump’s march to a third consecutive nomination will face a sustained threat stretching past the early states and into the meat of the primary calendar.
Consider this: The GOP primary starts in Iowa on Jan. 15. New Hampshire votes the week after, perhaps on Jan. 23. Then there’s a long gap until South Carolina. While Nevada Republicans could hold their caucuses either before or immediately after South Carolina, the larger electorate and delegate haul from South Carolina has focused far more attention on the Palmetto State.
That calendar is still unofficial, since only South Carolina and Iowa (which announced its caucus date hours after this column was originally published) have actually set dates. But the most likely scenario is now a historically lengthy runup to the notoriously rough-and-tumble South Carolina primary, raising the stakes even higher for competing there.
That could turn the state into a make-or-break for favorite son and daughter candidates Sen. Tim Scott and former Gov. Nikki Haley. It also ups the ante for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose campaign celebrated the state GOP’s decision to schedule the primary for a later date than initially expected.
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Trump’s lead in South Carolina is considerable, but there’s an opening for his challengers. Two surveys last month from Republican polling firms gave the former president identical 23-point leads over DeSantis. But Trump was also at 41 percent — a lower share than in national and most other early-state polling — thanks mostly to Scott and Haley each pulling around 10 percent of the vote.
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