A lot of people are saying that the leaked Israeli plan for total ethnic cleansing of Gaza is what is being enacted.
There are actually two separate issues at hand as regards that plan, which are a large ground offensive and a transfer of the civilian population to Egypt.
Presumably, none of us who are analyzing politics have crystal balls. We don’t have wizard powers. We do not have sources inside the State Department or Israeli government. Therefore, the only thing any of us can do is look at the situation and try to consider future outcomes based on the information we already have.
While some commenters may have insider sources, and some might lie about it, I don’t have any insider sources in politics and as a rule, I refuse to talk to anyone involved in politics, because of a policy I have called “don’t quote me, boy, cuz I ain’t said shit.”
For a long time, I took it for granted that everyone understands this: I don’t have magic powers, so any time I make a “prediction,” it is just a guess. Though I am right about everything else, this requirement of the job to consider future events is something that no one can be 100% right about. I challenge anyone to find someone who is right more often than me. Seriously – give me a name.
I was wrong about the Ukraine. I didn’t expect the US to commit like this. It was pretty common wisdom that I was following along with at the time, which said that Zelensky would surrender. As I cite often, Zelesnsky was preparing a surrender, and public stated that he was ready to surrender, and then Boris Johnson flew into Kiev and told him that he was not allowed to do that.
Meanwhile, I called the fall of Kabul to the Taliban more or less to the hour, while everyone on TV was saying “at least six months.”
This “predicting” thing is a big game for a lot of people in internet politics. I simply view it as a necessary part of my job. I have to bring things together and try to come to conclusions from the data you have. I do that on every topic, but with the topics I like writing about, there is no need to gaze into the future. With current events, you have no choice.
Much of this has become very difficult, because the people running the US are insane, and their decisions therefore do not always make clear sense. Slaughtering the Ukraine didn’t seem possible to me, but there you go.
I was wrong about the Ukraine, so I might be wrong about this: I don’t think there is going to be a major ground offensive.
What I can tell you without needing to predict the future that is outside of the capacity of the Jews to clear Hamas from Gaza. Hamas are much better fighters than the Jews, and the home team advantage that Hamas has is ultra-massive, given their system of tunnels, which they’ve spent nearly 2 decades digging.
The only people on the Jews team that could successfully fight Hamas are the US Marines.
The United States is claiming that no US troops will be deployed, and they are speaking of the conflict as if there is an end in sight.
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