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War, War, War
See other War, War, War Articles

Title: Hezbollah vs. IDF -- What Happened Last Time?
Source: [None]
URL Source: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/11 ... s-idf-what-happened-last-time/
Published: Nov 4, 2023
Author: L. Reichard White
Post Date: 2023-11-04 10:32:11 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 1291
Comments: 11

It looks like the parable of David and Goliath is about to re-emerged on the world stage. Ironically, the previous battle cast the Israeli State as the heavy. The “David” of the piece was decentralized “4GW” (4th Generation Warfare) as deployed by an estimated 3,000 Hezbollah fighters.

The outcome of that battle was a serious blow to central governments everywhere. If one of the most effective government militaries in the world couldn’t deal with 3,000 militiamen, what good is it? The inevitable outcome of the ill conceived U.S. Government actions in Iraq and Afghanistan delivered two much more lethal blows to Goliath.

The uncivilized, barbaric ferocity of the actions against Fallujah — and against ISIS in Mosul and Syria — demonstrate the consternation and fear hierarchical organizations experience when confronting non-hierarchical opposition they’re unable to understand – – –

“The central secret to Hezbollah’s success is that it trained its (global) guerrillas to make decisions autonomously (classic 4GW), at the small group level. In every area — from firing rockets to defending prepared positions to media routing around jamming/disruption — we have examples of Hezbollah teams deciding, adapting, innovating, and collaborating without reference to any central authority. The result of this decentralization is that Hezbollah’s aggregate decision cycles are faster and qualitatively better than those of their Israeli counterparts.” Global Guerrillas, Sunday, July 30, 2006 THE SECRETS OF HEZBOLLAH’S SUCCESS, Organizational Improvements

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 3.

#1. To: Esso, StraitGate, Ada, Lod, TommyTheMadArtist, Pinguinite, Dakmar, titorite, AllTheKings'HorsesWontDoIt, FormerLurker (#0)

The IDF is well below past standards. Hezbollah has 10 times as many fighters as in 2006. They have extensive tunnels. They will have Wagner mercenaries operating their newly donated air defenses. They will be augmented by Iranian militias and suicide drones. Like Hamas they will have FPV drones. They can send one hundred 20 man squads armed with FPV drones and anti-tank missiles to capture Israeli hostages. Meanwhile, Iranian militias will be attacking the Golan Heights from Syria and also attacking US military bases in Iraq and Syria.

The Russians might defend Lebanon with their S-400 AD and their R 37 M air to air missiles which has been improved and wrought hell on Ukrainian jets.

I would expect US carrier based jets to come in two waves of 30 jets. The Russians will likely shoot down 30 of 30 US jets forcing the second group of 30 jets to return.

Putin will be nice and not use air launched Kinzhal missiles to sink the carriers.

Israel from Haifa north will be destroyed by Hezbollah missiles and the Israeli economy ruined both from the destruction and the call up of all those men who do the work to make the economy run.

Horse  posted on  2023-11-04   19:31:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Horse (#1)

Russia will not fire on US jets unless Russian planes are attacked. That's a given as it would trigger a serious international incident. At most, Hezbollah or Syrian proxies, or "Iran backed" militias may do so, but US aircraft won't come in range of their weapons and won't need to. Our planes are too expensive to risk in actual combat anyway.

Pinguinite  posted on  2023-11-05   2:02:03 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 3.

#4. To: Pinguinite (#3)

No risk to Russia by using their S-400 and their R 37 M air to air missiles to shoot down 30 of 30 jets. The US will attack Lebanon when Hezbollah enters the fight.

The bonus for Putin is that the US stock and bond markets will crash disabling us.

Horse  posted on  2023-11-05 07:20:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 3.

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