‘Minus Three Russian Bombers.’ Ukraine Set Another Deadly Missile-Ambush —And Shot Down A Trio Of High-Tech Su-34s. Story by David Axe, Forbes Staff • 22 December 2023
A Russian air force Su-34. Wikimedia Commons
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The Ukrainian air force shot down three Russian air force Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers in a missile-ambush on Friday. It was one of the worst single-day losses for the Russian air arm in the 22-month wider war on Ukraine.
“Minus three Russian bombers,” Ukrainian air force commander Lt. Gen. Mikola Oleshchuk quipped on Facebook.
The ambush could mark a turning point in the air battle over southern Ukraine. In early October, Ukrainian marines motored across the wide Dnipro River and seized, in the settlement of Krynky, a bridgehead on the otherwise Russian-controlled left bank in Kherson Oblast.
The Ukrainians at least briefly had local air-superiority over Krynky thanks to their effective electronic warfare, which grounded Russia’s drones in the area. But regionally, the Russians still had control of the air. And soon Russian air force Su-34s were flying daily sorties to lob satellite-guided glide-bombs at the Krynky bridgehead from 25 miles away.
The glide-bombs, some weighing more than a ton, kill without warning. The glide-bombs “are the least scary because you understand that they will hit, and you won’t feel anything,” a trooper named Oleksandr told The Kyiv Independent.
The Ukrainian air force worked “for a long time” to lay a trap for the Sukhoi glide-bombers, National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Secretary Oleksiy Danilov told Ukrainian radio.
On Nov. 25, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky dropped in at the International Summit on Food Security in Kyiv and announced that Ukraine was preparing to deploy “very powerful air-defenses” to Odesa Oblast, which is adjacent to Kherson Oblast.
Two weeks later, an unidentified missile—possibly from an S-300PS battery—shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bomber over the western Black Sea, reportedly while the twin-engine, two-person supersonic bomber was staging for an attack on Odesa or one of Ukraine’s river ports on the Danube Delta.
Around the same time, there were rumors that Ukrainian air-defenses in Kherson had shot down an Su-34 as the Russian plane was glide-bombing Krynky. But the greater blow came a month later on Friday.
In quick succession, Ukrainian missiles swatted three Su-34s, killing some of the six aviators on board. A Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter rotored in to pick up survivors ... or bodies. “A dark day,” one Russian military-blogger wr ote.
The twin-engine, supersonic fighter-bombers are some of the newest in the Russian inventory. They’re also increasingly endangered as the war in Ukraine grinds toward its third year. In 22 months of hard fighting, Russia has lost at least 25 of its 150 or so Su-34s.
It’s not clear what missiles the Ukrainians fired at the Sukhoi flight near Krynky. It’s worth noting that the Ukrainian air force got a new U.S.-made Patriot missile battery—its third—from German stocks just last week.
On May 13, a Ukrainian Patriot battery in northern Ukraine shot down, over Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, five Russian fighters and helicopters in the span of a few minutes. Eleven aviators died. The Friday missile-ambush—quite possibly also the work of a Patriot battery—was only slightly less costly for the Russians.
The best outcome for the Ukrainian war effort would be for the Russian air force to dial down its glide-bombing campaign targeting Krynky. Even a switch-up in Russian tactics could benefit the Ukrainian marines in their bridgehead.
Glide-bombs work best when released from high altitude. But that same high flying exposes warplanes to Ukraine’s long-range surface-to-air missiles: Patriots and S-300s.
If the Russians fly lower in order to avoid detection, their glide-bombs will lose range. Pilots might have to get closer to Krynky before nosing up and releasing their bombs. A closer approach could expose the Russians to shorter-range Ukrainian air-defenses.
The Russians must move fast if they want to adapt. Ukrainian defenses over Krynky soon could get even stiffer as the first 18 ex-Dutch F-16 fighters arrive in Ukraine in the coming days.
Poster Comment:
Turn out the lights, the party's over....