There are 2 big factors that will likely lead this current economy into recession. The commercial real estate nightmare and the rate at which unemployment continues to grow. If people don't have jobs, they can't pay their bills, which is something we are already seeing with all sorts of consumer delinquencies on the rise.
Poster Comment:
The US government jobs survey over counts jobs by counting one person working 3 jobs as 3 jobs. The Household survey counts one that as one job.