Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,
As Israel — with US support — continues its rampage across the Middle East, Türkiye is assessing the shifting landscape and weighing costs and opportunities, including economic and security concerns, ties with NATO on one hand and BRICS countries on the other, and its own regional aspirations.
Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus emphasized the country’s position over the weekend, saying that Türkiye follows its own “national axis” in foreign policy and rejects the idea that it must align with any power or bloc. Where is that “national axis” going to take the country as the Middle East goes up in flames and Türkiye is positioned to play a key role?
One route it appears certain not to take is concrete position to Israel. Despite all Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and company, goods from Türkiye continue to make their way to Israel. Oil continues to flow through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from Azerbaijan to Türkiye’s Ceyhan port where it is shipped to Haifa — constituting roughly 40 percent of Israel’s supply.
In early May, Türkiye said it was halting exports to Israel due to the “worsening humanitarian tragedy” in the Palestinian territories. Yet goods, including critical minerals and chemicals used by the Israeli military get around the export ban by simply going through third countries, such as Greece. And the US is still using Incirlik Air Base in southern Türkiye to assist Israel.
This is unsurprising as In some ways the US/Israel current rampage through the Middle East fits with Turkish goals. Here are six issues confronting the Turkish government as it decides how to proceed: