Warning lights have been flashing all over the Democrats' 2024 dashboard, and now a new one is pointing to big trouble for Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Nevada, where early voting results show that GOP voters are actually outnumbering Democrats. Across the country, Democrats typically account for a majority of early votes, and Nevada has been no exception -- until now. "The numbers look pretty GOP so far, and that never happens in a presidential year," wrote veteran Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston in a Tuesday afternoon blog post at the Nevada Independent.
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
The early voting blog is updated!
Out: Clark D firewall
In: Rural R firewall.
It's real: 16,500 votes because of massive landslides so far and higher than urban turnout percentage.
Dems need more mail, lots of indies, or big trouble in NV.
Democrats lead statewide mail-in voting by 17,298, but Republicans lead in-person voting by a whopping 25,173 -- even beating Dems in Clark County and Washoe County, homes of Las Vegas and Reno, respectively. Statewide, Republicans account for 52% of in-person early voting, Democrats are just 28%, and "other" is 20%. "Those in-person numbers are startling," wrote Ralston, who's been covering Silver State politics for three decades. "A few more days like this...and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions."
Another dynamic of Americans politics is the big distinction between urban and rural voting patterns, with cities reliably delivering large volumes of Democratic votes. In Nevada, the dynamic is perhaps even more pronounced, with Democrats' statewide fortunes largely tied to the so- called "Clark firewall." However, so far in 2024, that barrier is looking mighty short. "The Clark firewall is only 6,500, about a seventh of what it was in 2020," wrote Ralston.
The bigger picture is even worse for the Democrats: "The [Republican voter-turnout] lead in rural Nevada is more than double the [Democrat] lead in urban Nevada," he wrote. The sea change prompted Ralston to declare that we're witnessing a new dynamic in the 2024 cycle: "The [GOP] rural firewall. It's a thing."