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National News See other National News Articles Title: Employment Drops by 355,000 But Jobs Rise by 227,000 in November by Mike Shedlock The strange jobs reports continue as the divergence between jobs and employment widens again. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish Please consider the BLS Employment Report for November. Jobs vs Employment From September 2020 through early 2022, nonfarm payroll job gains and full time employment changes tracked together. Starting around March of 2022, a divergence between employment and jobs became very noticeable, and I have been discussing the divergence since then. Job Stats vs One Year Ago Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,274,000 Employment: -725,000 Full Time Employment: -1,342,000 In the last year, nonfarm payrolls are up by 2.3 million while employment is down by 725,000 and full-time employment is down by over 1.3 million. Job Report Details Nonfarm Payroll: +227,000 to 159,288,000 – Establishment Survey Civilian Non-institutional Population: +174,000 to 269,463,000 Civilian Labor Force: -193,000 to 168,286,000 – Household Survey Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.5% – Household Survey Employment: -355,000 to 161,141,000 – Household Survey Unemployment: +161,000 to 7,145,000 – Household Survey Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.2% – Household Survey Not in Labor Force: 368,000 to 101,177 – Household Survey U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 7.8% – Household Survey Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector Government and Health Services are related to the surge of illegal immigrants and the need to address them. Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly Revisions The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 32,000, from +223,000 to +255,000. The change for October was revised up by 24,000, from +12,000 to +36,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined is 56,000 higher than previously reported. Nearly every month there are negative revisions. This was a rare month with positive revisions. Part-Time Jobs Involuntary Part-Time Work: -100,000 to 4,457,000 Voluntary Part-Time Work: +23,000 to 22,375,000 Total Full-Time Work: -111,000 to 133,385,000 Total Part-Time Work: -268,000 to 27,666,000 Multiple Job Holders: +275,000 to 8,3580,000 The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported. It’s important to not that multiple job holders add to nonfarm payrolls but not the number of employed. Hours and Wages This data is frequently revised. Average weekly hours of all private employees rose 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.2 hours. Average weekly hours of manufacturers rose 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours. An overall decline or rise of a tenth of an hour does not sound line much, but with employment over 160 million, it’s more significant than it appears at first glance. Hourly Earnings This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month. Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.13 to $35.61. A year ago the average wage was $34.23. That’s a gain of 4.0%. Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.09 to $30.57. A year ago the average wage was $29.42. That’s a gain of 3.9%. Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate hit a 50-year low in January and April of 2023 at 3.4 percent. It’s now 4.1 percent. “The unemployment rate has bottomed this cycle and will generally head higher.” I first made that comment many months ago. If there was any doubt, it’s now erased. Alternative Measures of Unemployment Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. The official unemployment rate is 4.2 percent. U-6 is much higher at 7.8 percent. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers. Birth Death Model Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Birth-Death Methodology Explained I gave a detailed explanation of the model and why the hype is wrong in my June 8, 2024 post How Much Did the BLS Birth-Death Adjustment Pad the May Jobs Report? I repeat, do not subtract the birth-death number from the headline number. That’s flawed. However, it is now clear that the BLS is too optimistic about the number of jobs they believe are being created by the net creation of new businesses. A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions On August 22, 2024 I gave A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions Those negative revisions are a direct result of the BLS Birth-Death model gone haywire. Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement On November 20, I commented Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement Hard evidence from QCEW report suggests more negative revisions coming for BLS nonfarm payroll report. Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting. The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors. If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force. Looking for job openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume. These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month. The 2024 Destruction of Small Business Employment in Pictures The BLS payroll reports smack of oversampling large employers and undersampling small employers where jobs have been trending lower. 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