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Title: Update: USDA figures are in: the nation's cattle herd has plunged to a 74-year low, totaling 86.7 million head.
Source:
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URL Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditi ... -1951-lows-beef-crisis-deepens
Published: Jan 31, 2025
Author: Tyler Durden
Post Date: 2025-01-31 18:17:43 by Horse
Keywords: None
Views: 513
Comments: 6
* * * Ahead of this afternoon's 3 pm est. USDA release of official US cattle inventory data, estimates compiled by Bloomberg forecast the herd will be at its lowest level in more than seven decades. The ongoing cattle supply crunch continues to push supermarket ground beef prices to record highs. Bloomberg cited estimates from four analysts that expect the US cattle herd as of Jan. 1 will decline by .7% from one year ago. This would mark the lowest level since 1951 and extend the decline for a sixth straight year. We have thoroughly documented the cattle crisis resulting in higher ground beef prices at the supermarket: Cattle Futures Hit New Record High As Polar Blast Set To Hit Nation's Beef Supply US Cattle Crisis Worsens As Nation's Herd Size Continues Alarming Side Into Abyss Tyson Foods CEO Unsure When Nation's Collapsing Beef Herd Will Reverse The average retail price for ground beef at the supermarket, calculated by USDA, recently topped $5.61 per pound. Before Covid, that prices was around $3.81. Live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have surged to record highs. The latest CFTC data via Bloomberg shows money managers boosted bullish live cattle bets by 2,764 net-long positions to 161,970 last week, the most bullish in about five years - and nearing levels of the most bullish ever on record. On top of all this, the nation's cattle crisis is set to worsen with new pressures: President Donald Trump's anticipated tariff war 2.0, which is expected to tighten domestic beef supplies. "All of the things he is talking about have potentially negative consequences more so than anything positive," Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, told Bloomberg in a previous report, adding, "Our fate's pretty well determined in the cattle industry in the US for the next two to four years – and it's not looking good." About a year ago, the USDA projected that the cattle herd could begin rebuilding by 2025. However, that timeline has since shifted to 2027. The reason is primarily because of high interest rates and poor pasture conditions in the Midwest. "Even as the beef industry has experienced periods of growth over the past decades, the animal count has dropped almost 40% since a peak in 1975. During the current downcycle, which started in 2020, the herd has been shrinking at the fastest pace since the big farm crisis of the 1980s," Bloomberg noted. All things point to higher beef prices this year. Poster Comment: Trump Says DC Black Hawk "Was Flying Too High... By A Lot" Controller left work early - two controllers juggled duties normally handled by four... https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dc-black-hawk-flew-above-allowed-altitude- another-jet-aborted-landing-1-day-over-chopper 
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 4.
#1. To: Horse (#0)
The internet says... The cattle herd is gone in my locality. Nationwide, chicken processing facilities are being closed... Famine is coming.
I trade eggs to my neighbor for cuts of beef from cattle he raises and slaughters. I worked with a guy on a temp job who participated in the Iowa whole herd buyout program his dairy cows got slaughtered and he pissed and moaned about how the state put him out of business as a dairy farmer. I was much glad to part ways from him. On another note, did you get shook by that seismic activity a few days back?
It didn't seem to register here in my area. He wasn't lying. He did get put out of business...not sure if it was the state, or controllers higher up. It is a helluva thing to see a high producing jersey cow go for $175 take it or leave it. I watched it happen to several guys I know...their wives crying unconsolably. Pastures and barns are empty in Maine. How are cattle inventories in your neck of the woods? Texans lost big a few years back in the drought. Is he butchering mostly for personal consumption?
I was born raised in Jones County Iowa the State prison there had large number of dairy cows they had two pastures that were around four-square miles, milking sheds cooper shop and cheese and butter making (all made from limestone blocks quarried by the convicts). I used to hunt them when I was in my teens. The cows were all gone by '71 they were still giving away the cheese and butter to at least '85 it was then when I met the guy. Milk was subsidized to keep the whole sale prices up, there were laws requiring state and federal institutions to use only real butter and whole milk (state schools and care facilities and all military dining facilities ashore and afloat). We've been in drought conditions for six, seven years, the city only allows hand watering from watering can and then only plants and trees can be watered. The beef herds here are present but that's all I know about that. The neighbor owns a ranch more for not having to buy a deer lease at two grand per hunter per year. so he keeps cattle for personal use. The brush/dried pond is thick with deer, feral hogs, bob cats (breeding) and coyotes along with the various smaller critters all within a quarter mile from my coops, on most nights there is one coyote with in six feet. The cameras catch a lot but still no bigfoot or chupacabra, yet. Glad you didn't get banged around, I lived 45 miles from mount Pinatubo twelve inches of ash wet ash as a typhoon hit when the main eruption occured it was not a pleasant time.
#5. To: ghostrider (#4)
Ah, I needed to go back and read your comment closer. That was back in the 1980's? I wonder what they were paying farmers per cow. In recent years, here in Maine, they tell the small dairyman that they will no longer pick up milk on such-and-such date. The farmer has no way of selling his herd for what they are worth. He's offered $175 for a cow that could normally fetch $1000-$2000 more or less depending. His registered jersey, whose bloodline has been the pride of his family for generations, will be butchered for hamburger or dogfood. That's frightful conditions. Texas is the backbone of the beef supply. Cows need a lot of water. Oh, they're out there...getting into chicken coops...try this trick
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latestthe cattle crisis
The primary source of protein in the United States is animal protein, which makes up about 69% of the protein in the American diet.
Chicken and beef were the primary food sources of animal protein intake.
Chicken processing plants are closing in various locations, including Iowa, Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Arkansas, and Virginia. These closures are affecting both employees and farmers, and have raised concerns about animal welfare and economic impact.
#2. To: watchman (#1)
#3. To: ghostrider (#2)
On another note, did you get shook by that seismic activity a few days back?
his dairy cows got slaughtered and he pissed and moaned about how the state put him out of business as a dairy farmer.
I trade eggs to my neighbor for cuts of beef from cattle he raises and slaughters.
#4. To: watchman (#3)
He wasn't lying. He did get put out of business...not sure if it was the state, or controllers higher up. It is a helluva thing to see a high producing jersey cow go for $175 take it or leave it. I watched it happen to several guys I know...their wives crying unconsolably.
Replies to Comment # 4. Iowa whole herd buyout program
We've been in drought conditions for six, seven years, the city only allows hand watering from watering can and then only plants and trees can be watered. The beef herds here are present but that's all I know about that.
within a quarter mile from my coops, on most nights there is one coyote with in six feet. The cameras catch a lot but still no bigfoot or chupacabra, yet.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 4.