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World News See other World News Articles Title: Debunking the Ukrainian Claim About Russian Casualties The tired meme that Russia has suffered more than a million casualties is being repeated ad nauseam by Donald Trump, the media and members of Congress. This propaganda campaign is still being used to convince the public that Ukraine has a fighting chance against Russia. But it is a lie. I am going to use the data comparing artillery shells fired by Ukraine with those fired by Russia for the period 2022 – 2024. Why artillery? Because that weapon is a major source of casualties on both sides. The other major cause of deaths and wounds are drone attacks. For the purpose of this article I will focus only on artillery. I asked DeepSeek and ChatGPT this question: How many artillery rounds did Ukraine fire in 2022, 2023 and 2024? I asked the same question about Russian fires. (The AI programs list Pentagon/NATO reports, RUSI/ISW analyses, and media reports as the sources for this data.) Here are the results: Estimated Rounds Fired in 2022: In 2022, Ukraine faced significant artillery ammunition shortages, but still managed to fire an estimated 3,000 to 7,000 rounds per day at peak periods, depending on the phase of the war. Assuming an average of 4,000 rounds/day, Ukraine likely fired ~1.5 million artillery rounds in 2022. By comparison, Russia fired ~10–12 million rounds in the same period. Estimated Rounds Fired in 2023: Assuming an average of ~4,500 rounds/day, Ukraine likely fired ~1.6 million artillery rounds in 2023. For comparison, Russia fired ~5–7 million rounds in 2023 (also facing constraints but maintained higher volume). Estimated Artillery Usage in 2024 In 2024, Ukraine’s artillery usage was significantly constrained due to ammunition shortages and supply chain challenges. Daily Fire Rate: Early in the year, Ukrainian forces were firing fewer than 1,800 artillery rounds per day. The Cipher Brief Annual Total: Based on these figures, Ukraine likely fired between 650,000 and 750,000 artillery shells throughout 2024. In March 2024, estimates indicated that Russian forces were firing approximately 10,000 artillery shells per day, while Ukrainian forces managed around 2,000 per day, highlighting a significant disparity in artillery capabilities. In 2024, Russian forces fired an estimated 12 to 17 million artillery shells in Ukraine. This figure reflects a significant escalation in artillery usage compared to previous years. Here are the ratios by year comparing Russian artillery barrages to those of Ukraine: 2022, Russia vs Ukraine — 7 to 1. 2023, Russia vs Ukraine — 4 to 1. 2024, Russia vs Ukraine — 23 to 1. When you include Russian aerial strikes with glide bombs (i.e., FABS), multiple rocket launchers (MLRS), cruise and ballistic missiles, the likelihood of disproportionate casualties on the Ukrainian side of the line is irrefutable. Russia has suffered casualties, but a fraction of those inflicted on the Ukrainians. MediaZona offers the best estimate of Russia KIA because they collect and analyze death notices from all of the Russian republics. This is data, not opinion. According to MediaZona, an estimated 165,000 Russian soldiers have died in combat or from wounds incurred in combat. Ukraine, by contrast, has lost more than a million men — some estimates are as high as 1.5 million dead. These numbers are consistent with the ratios of artillery fire (and yes, I am assuming that a shell fired by each side has an equal chance of killing or maiming soldiers on the other side). Five months in to 2025, the disparity remains… Ukraine is firing an average of 5,000 per day compared to Russia firing an average of 30,000 per day. Ukraine, even with unfettered support of NATO countries cannot match Russia. Here is what NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, told the NATO Ministers of Defense in February: “We will discuss today the defence industrial base and how to produce more. We are not producing enough. And this is a collective problem we have, from the US up to and including Türkiye, and including the whole European Union, Norway, UK, we have fantastic defence industries, but we are not producing enough,” Rutte said. The alliance’s Secretary General emphasized that NATO does not produce enough weapons compared to Moscow. “No, I wanted to say Russia is producing in three months in ammunition, what the whole of the Alliance is producing in the year, and this is simply not sustainable. We have to ramp up the defense industry production,” NATO Secretary General stressed. The disparity between Russian fires and Ukrainian fires explains why Ukraine’s losses are so high. It is a simple question of math. I did my usual Friday conversations with NIma and with the Judge and Ray McGovern on The Roundtable. I am also posting a monologue I recorded earlier this week discussing the dynamics surrounding negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Poster Comment: Russia also air superiority. They drop over 100 Glide bombs a day. These weigh 1,100, 2,200 and 6,600 pounds each. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
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