Business for Oliver Stone's World Trade Center was off nearly 25 percent Thursday from its Wednesday opening. But box-office analysts said the drop was normal--and not a sign that news of the alleged London terror plot had put a hurt into the movie about the 9-11 terror attacks.
http://BoxOfficeMojo.com's Brandon Gray said he thought the movie will finish its first weekend Sunday grossing somewhere between "the high teens to the mid-20s."
"Which is very good for the type of movie it is," Gray said Friday.
The type of movie World Trade Center is is the first major studio film about the Sept. 11, 2001, toppling of New York's Twin Towers, an event that claimed 2,752 lives.
"This is not escapist entertainment" Paul Dergarabedian of the box-office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations said Friday. "It's not like people were going to go this to have a grand-old time at the movies."
That said, World Trade Center is being sold as the inspirational story of two New York Port Authority officers, played by Nicolas Cage and Michael Pena, who lived where so many died. If not quite a feel-good movie, then it's a try-to-feel-a-little-better movie. Would Thursday's headlines about a thwarted attack involving airplanes, liquid explosives and a network of terrorists ruin the vibe?
The numbers show ticket sales fell Wednesday to Thursday, from $4.5 million to $3.3 million. The 24.9 percent drop-off was the biggest for any film in the Top 10, per the stats at http://BoxOfficeMojo.com. But both Gray and Dergarabedian said Wednesday's business was inflated because it was opening-day business--the Thursday decline, in their opinions, was all but assured.
All told, World Trade Center combined to take in $7.8 million in its first two days. If its Friday-Sunday gross amounts to even $14 million, it'll represent the biggest opening weekend in Stone's career.
No matter what the film ends up doing, Dergarabedian said, World Trade Center will be sacked by "Monday morning quarterbacking." The main question: "Was it affected by Heathrow [the London plot]?"
The answer may be revealed in degrees, not mega-millions. Though not a small movie--World Trade Center cost a reported $63 million to make, and another $35 million to market--it's not expected to be a blockbuster, either.
"It's expected to be a solid drama," Gray said. "Probably along the lines of Ladder 49."
Ladder 49, a drama about firefighters starring John Travolta and Joaquin Phoenix, made $74.5 million in 2004.
The other movie that invites comparisons to World Trade Center is United 93, the first Hollywood feature about the hijacked 9-11 flight that crashed in a field in Pennsylvania killing all on board, passengers and terrorists alike.
"People were not expecting that movie to really not do well," Dergarabedian said.
Ultimately, the $15 million movie, released in April, ended up grossing $31.5 million--minus stars and a happy ending.
Dergarabedian is of the opinion that World Trade Center will be helped, not hurt, by the latest bad-news headlines. "It just makes the movie more relevant," he said. "And I think it'll resonate with audiences."
On Thursday, Paramount Pictures, the studio behind World Trade Center, considered, but did not, pull back on advertising, the Associated Press reported. On Friday, the film moved onto another 100 or so screens, bringing its weekend total to just under 3,000, according to http://BoxOfficeMojo.com.
Another new movie that looks as if its box-office run will be unaffected by the terror-front news is Snakes on a Plane.
"We're releasing as planned," New Line Cinema said Friday.
The film, starring Samuel L. Jackson, is due out Aug. 18.
Liquids on a Plane poster parody or no (see: http://BoingBoing.net for further explanation), the horror movie doesn't have anything in common with the alleged London plot, except for one thing: Both the film and the thwarted plan involve planes.
Gray, for one, didn't see Snakes' target audience--young males with a penchant for blogging about the movie--being scared off.
"I don't think Snakes on a Plane will be affected by this [terror news] at all," Gray said. "It will do what it does."
Dergarabedian, for another, agreed.
"It's such an outlandish concept," Dergarabedian said of the film, not the alleged plot. "I think this movie is immune to that."
Poster Comment:
Another pap film, another flop...