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Title: Pop Goes the Bubble (housing market)
Source:
Lew Rockwell
URL Source: [None]
Published: Aug 30, 2006
Author: Bill Bonner
Post Date: 2006-08-30 10:30:09 by bluedogtxn
Keywords: None
Views: 2200
Comments: 137
by Bill Bonner "What's that Hissing Sound?" headlines a piece in the Economist: "The boom has lifted the (U.S.) economy in three ways: it has boosted residential construction: it has made people feel wealthier and so encouraged them to spend more; and it has allowed homeowners to use their property as a gigantic cash machine, taking out money by borrowing against their capital gains. Merrill Lynch estimates that the three together accounted for more than half of America's total GDP growth since last year. "Counting construction, finance, and estate agency, the housing boom has been responsible for one-third of all the jobs created since 2001. If house-price rises level off, GDP growth could dip below 2% in 2007. If prices fall, expect a steeper slowdown." Since it is now in the Economist, it's official – housing is in trouble. But will prices actually go down? We have a report directly from one of the hottest markets in the country, south Florida: "We just missed it. The time to sell was a year ago. A guy came along and offered us $500,000 for that place we bought. We paid $450,000 for it two years ago. Our timing couldn't have been worse. We expected to tear down the house and build a new one...and we were sure we'd make a couple hundred thousand in profit. Minimum. But you warned us. And we didn't listen. And then, we got that offer for $500,000 and turned it down. We thought we could get much more. But that was then and this is now...I'd be happy to get back what we have in it. But we can't even get anyone to look at it." Paul Kasriel says it's the worst supply/demand equation of residential real estate in 34 years. Sales in July were down more than a fifth. Inventories were up more than a fifth. And a lot of real estate investors are now going to the liquor store to get another fifth. They wish they could turn the clock back a few months and unload properties at last year's prices. But maybe the situation is not as bad as it looks. The New York Times reported the news last week that real estate downturns in England and Australia have been surprisingly mild. And now, Business Week has a big story entitled "Housing: The Roof Won't Collapse On The U.S. Economy." According to Business Week, housing can go a little soft without damaging the economy too severely. That view has become the mainstream dream. What do we know; maybe it will turn out to be true. As our friend John Mauldin points out, we usually muddle through. Usually, tomorrow is like today. Usually, nothing too bad or too good...happens. Usually, things are average, ordinary, common, and regular. But wait, there is nothing ordinary about this housing bubble. In the space of less than 10 years, according to Robert Shiller's index, the real value of residential property doubled. And householders doubled up their debt, too. Neither are things that happen every day; in fact, they've never happened before! We are not looking into a crystal ball here. We are just putting two and two together. If things are usually usual, then when they are unusually unusual, they are probably more likely to become usual again, rather than become more unusually unusual. That seems so obvious to us, we won't bother to explain it. And when housing prices become usual, then the poor sap who has bet his house on something extraordinary is likely to be in a tight spot. And since the entire U.S. economy, and by extension the entire world economy, depends on him being able to continue to spend, then they're all in a tight spot. Yes, the whole world economy now depends on a man who spends money he doesn't have – money of no sure value – on what he surely can't afford, and which he probably doesn't need anyway. He can only do so as long as his house rises in price. And now, that the rise in housing prices has come to an end. What next? Everyone has come to expect slowing real estate gains. The boom is over; everyone seems to think so. So, where is the surprise? Where's the money to be made...or lost? Again, we don't know. But in August 1982, Business Week famously predicted that the equity market was finished. Now, in August 2006, BW tells us not to worry: the roof will not collapse. BW might not be right, but it might be consistent; the roof might blow up. August 30, 2006
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#30. To: buckeroo (#29)
Pig. Did you read what she said about Palestinians? Were the comments too long for you? Please allow me to condense them: Sally the Zionist called them animals, unworthy of life. This is who you support with your money, time and effort. Now, please crawl back under your rock.
I am wondering if gas prices will fall until the November elections and then bounce back to $4.00 per gallon. It seems the oil companies have an interest in keeping Cheney viable and unimpeached.
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I'm sure the brooms are happy to be back home too now LP is out of their domain. Why don't you or one of you go to the biker bar and dialog about the restrictions on posting material? Especially in light of the questionable nature of material used by people whose ideology and beliefs get a spacial pass as they resonate with her beliefs. LP acts like such a group of cowards in refusing to confront Goldi about this sort of temperament irrationality she love to engage in.. Or get her to let me back in. I wold make time to post everything I would have to say were I back. If you guys don't want to do it, get me back in, I'll gladly take her censoring butt to task because LP is supposed to be better then that. And because she really should have known better to do that, and other recent actions that make us all wonder in concern at the state of her sanity.
Why do you take her comment so personally, anyway? You aren't of Palestinian background and the only connections you have are with some local friends, neighbors and so forth. BTW, the way you talk ... you are austere in conceptual political perfection. Ever call a Jew an animal? But I notice you are only attempting to goad me into defending GL. Again, I won't do that. I have no intent to defend anyone but possibly myself.
Ask the mighty one whom started this exchange. I have attempted to hold the guy back ... but he is becoming pissy ain't he?
assclown. Your defense of her is broadcast far and wide over the net. There is no need for me to track down what you readily admit to. It's ironic; you support a bigoted hater, those being the very charges you leveled at me :)
This is a contradiction in terms, JT. Please take some time and rethink your own posts.
contradiction my ass. you have cognitive deficits.
I know she is a Jew and supports Israel. And I know that personal bias pervades her forum but I don't think that's the point as my thinking of how she handles her forum is meaningless; just as Christine found out about Todd after my many posts about that idiot. I am fairly square about the toxic formulas of the snake pits you want to drag me in .... but I am truthful and don't harbor hate with exception as I agreed to ... about the government. I wish we could get back to chatting about methods of government restoration instead of of websites, though.
Why the redundancy? It appears you are attempting to coax me into some form of claptrap. Yet, look at yourself with your "hit-o-meter" as though it is a badge of merit to some of your peers. You think I give a hoot? Oh my ...
I'm going to bed. I'm outta rum. To be continued.
I've got some Captain's Morgain Private Stock .... the absolute best. What is your email address?
Hey, tell you what,you and I both know Sally ain't the nuggets to let me back in. Deliver a message to Quantrill for me, tell him I don't think he has the balls to come over to 4UM to debate. And that I think he is a disgrace and traitor to this country for supporting George and company in the conduct of their criminal wars and outrageous acts on 9-11. Quantrill is a bastard whom his mother should have aborted. In light of his support of abortion, he could not begrudge her for not regretting not having done so in the years she must have endured in watching the sorry excuse for a chimpanzee afterbirth grow up and disgrace his own family's name far worse than any other male relative of his who have served terms in prison in the course of the period they were together. You don't have to say all that now, or say anything at all because I would never assume to tell you what you should or shouldn't do. Give him my invitation if you would, as simply as you wish, if you feel like doing so. Just the satisfaction of seeing him too cowardly in nature to come over for a visit would makes me just as satisfied in many ways the fun to be had if he did show up at 4UM. ;-)
JTForPresident@Freedom4um.com ;)
"Freedom4um" -- The Forum for Real Americans and where America and Americans are always First!
i am not sure that he is a bastard. in his part of the rural south it may be legal for cousins to marry.
ROTFL
make one for buckeroo that says MrWizWand@freedom4um.com/
Nono .. CaptainMorgan@freedom4um.com
Ghost told me that whe wasn't cousin span. He is apparently a father / step daughter hybrid. Of course, the parents of both the father and step daughter were cousins for 10 generations back.
Just so you know, I haven't defended her or anyone, anywhere. I want that clear ... got it? I may defend my position of perspective and that is true. I have respect for her and those efforts she has performed to maintain/create a website that attempts as wide a political spectrum of opinion as possible. She should have the courtesy of at least the dignity for working towards that end. Nobody else has done it. GL has.
Did Goldi ever explain why she banned aristeides? (the 2nd time not the 1st)
"If there’s another 9/11 or a major war in the Middle-East involving a U.S. attack on Iran, I have no doubt that there will be, the day after or within days an equivalent of a Reichstag fire decree that will involve massive detentions in this country." - Daniel Ellsberg Author, Pentagon Papers I can never understand her reasons. I have asked ... begged and admonished. And never a reply. I can only say that here is one recent exchange and still no answer other than other fine posters leveller posted on 2006-08-29 16:00:03 ET Reply Trace Sorry to see Burk go. He is one of the best posters on the Inet. I post at a number of political websites and many IRC political and technical forums spanning 10 worldwide networks. You don't see many like Burk belt out an incredibly well authored essay in just 10 minutes from someones previous post. You would think that when some of our best posters are leaving because of the obvious changes in hidden forum policies and agenda that someone would wake up. But I don't see her doing it. I was floored last week to learn that aristitredes was banned. Another astute and well-mannered poster that maintained an incredible background of respect for opinion no matter whom he addressed. He was an American-Firster, like me. I have tried in the past to post my ideas about recent bannings and don't receive a reply, pro or con or indifferent so I assume I am on her ignore list; if anyone doesn't sound the alarm bell its me on these threads although I have increasingly found myself cornered by these desperate bottish posters that I have pinged the web- mistress; still rarely. I can certainly vouch for the fact that I have attempted to help LP as one of the financial contributors towards a forum providing a broad spectrum of opinion. And she knows it, too. We are seeing a crisis on LP. The venue is changing about political matters of and about America towards pro/con relationships of Israel. Israel has NOTHING to do with America's existence and I am offended by the Zionists attempting to stuff down my throat their attitude about lack of support = terrorism. buckeroo posted on 2006-08-29 23:16:37 ET Reply Trace Just thought you might want to read this thread; and my comment to leveller just above. buckeroo posted on 2006-08-30 01:28:34 ET Reply Trace OK - I'll give 'er a look-see. Original_Intent posted on 2006-08-30 01:36:08 ET Reply Trace Yes we live in interesting times. As you know I've pointed out that the common link between aristeides, honway, and FormerLurker is that they were not lockstep Party 'bots who accepted the Party Line on 911 or the Zionist Party line. The strongest voices for the contrary view are being purged or leaving in disgust as the wave of 'botulism rolls over LP. When I first began posting here regularly, because I got fed up with "All Anti-Semitism All the Time" at LF, there was a spirited body of Posters who were capable of pinning the 'bots ears back. Sadly there are now too few voices for reason, sanity, and humanity. The trend seems to be to give the voice of insanity and endless war the upper hand in the debate by either banning or driving away in disgust anyone who lifts their voice against wanton murder as State Policy. She performed wonderfully, too.
#31. To: aristeides (#9)
This may counter any political benefit Bush might otherwise derive from a fall in gas prices.
#32. To: buckeroo (#29)
(Edited)
"Goldi gave him for helping to move the site into new hardware that was finally co-located for a real Internet site instead of a broom closet in GL's house."
+ 
+ 
= 
#33. To: Jethro Tull (#30)
#34. To: Ferret Mike, Jethro Tull (#32)
#35. To: buckeroo (#33)
But I notice you are only attempting to goad me into defending GL
#36. To: Jethro Tull (#35)
Your defense of her is broadcast far and wide over the net. There is no need for me to track down what you readily admit to.
#37. To: buckeroo (#36)
(Edited)
#38. To: Jethro Tull, Christine (#35)
#39. To: Jethro Tull (#37)
#40. To: buckeroo (#38)
#41. To: Jethro Tull (#40)
I'm outta rum. To be continued.
#42. To: buckeroo (#34)
(Edited)
"Ask the mighty one whom started this exchange. I have attempted to hold the guy back ... but he is becoming pissy ain't he?"
+ + =
#43. To: buckeroo (#41)
#44. To: Ferret Mike (#42)
Quantrill is a bastard whom his mother should have aborted.
#45. To: christine (#43)
JTForPresident@Freedom4um.com
#46. To: christine (#43)
#47. To: Morgana le Fay, Christine (#46)
#48. To: Morgana le Fay (#44)
i am not sure that he is a bastard. in his part of the rural south it may be legal for cousins to marry.
Liberace!
A great American!
#49. To: Jethro Tull (#35)
Your defense of her is broadcast far and wide over the net.
#50. To: buckeroo (#49)
#51. To: robin (#50)
23. To: leveller, Burkeman1, Goldi-Lox (#22)
24. To: Original_Intent, (#23)
25. To: buckeroo (#24)
26. To: buckeroo (#24)
#52. To: Ferret Mike (#42)
Ghostie? I won't help you. Thats your problem with that disgusting poster.
#53. To: buckeroo (#52)
It's not even a problem. I already said I didn't care if you did or didn't, so that's fine with me. He'll either get my message one way or another, or won't. I won't lose sleep either way.
+ + = #54. To: Ferret Mike (#53)
I think Ghostie was neutered by his poor parents ... they needed something to sell at the local farmer's market so they took his mountain oysters and sold them for .5 Rubles. But that is just my take on his humble beginnings.
#55. To: buckeroo (#49)
You defend her by supporting her. It's simple once you think it thru... Nice poste here, Bucky: 6. To: beyond the sea (#3) Jews getting a little crazy now over there. In my way of thinking, they at least have the balls to declare war upon Lebanon. Here in the US .... our Congress has no balls ... they gave the power to the President ... whom again, has no balls. buckeroo posted on 2006-07-15 12:31:02 ET Reply Trace *** So the Jews have balls to target civilians? Lying hypocrite.
#56. To: buckeroo (#49)
Psst....if you didn't fill her pockets with cash you'd be homeless. She's a low rent, homeless looking Zionist, whose ass you love to kiss.
I have respect for her and those efforts she has performed to maintain/create a website that attempts as wide a political spectrum of opinion as possible. She should have the courtesy of at least the dignity for working towards that end. Nobody else has done it. GL has.
#57. To: Fibr Dog (#7)
Well, I've quit FR2 for good, so hopefully it'll be a while before I have to read that kind of crap again. I like this site and its philosophy much better. Viva free speech.
I'm sorry but there is no probelem with the real estate market. You see, Badeye's business is doing good and he has a Hummer. And besides that I'mStillRight says everything is A. O. K. and that's good enough for me! /sarcasm
the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal bread.
#58. To: bluedogtxn, Fibr Dog (#57)
Well, I've quit FR2 for good, so hopefully it'll be a while before I have to read that kind of crap again. So what's the problem? My business was doing good - well at least in cyber space it was - and so I gave myself a Hummer. Most people arn't capable of giving themselves a Hummer. Does this make you jealous?
I'm sorry but there is no probelem with the real estate market. You see, Badeye's business is doing good and he has a Hummer.
Sixty five thousand little turds dispensed to date ....
#59. To: buckeroo (#14)
Buck, I know this was kind of a two sided conversation, and forgive me for "C"ing my way into it. I have a problem with LP, and it's not their viewpoint. I watched Ferret get banned and Honway get banned and aristeides get banned. Not for profanity or ad-hominem attacks, but for posting a particular point of view that was verboten. I had one of my posts that supported the verboten point of view pulled, too, without any explanation. Unlike some on this site, I don't hate Jews or think there is a "Jewish conspiracy" to take over the world. On the other hand, when one point of view is deliberately suppressed and posters banned over it, (1) the site is not a fair representation of the views of its members; and (2) it deceptively presents an unbalanced picture of the opinions of its posters. Aside from that, it is an unhealthy environment for debate when one side has to debate with a hand tied behind its back. I only recently discovered this site as an alternative, and I like the free speech philosophy. No ad hominem attacks (they were getting way too frequent over there), and polite discourse, but no forbidden viewpoints and all welcome. Plus, FR2 over there was getting overrun with former freepers, and they tended to be some rude and mindless sumbitches. So, with that said, I agree with JT to the extent that I think you continuing to post over there only breathes a semblance of life and legitimacy into a dead zone. C'mon over here and stay. It'll be better for you and us, too.
Let me explain my reasons for posting on LP. I enjoy a wide variety of comments. Nothing more or less. I am awkward slapping people on the back that I agree with. I enjoy this forum ( 4um ), too. But many of the posts I agree with and so don't attempt to much but to suggest an added perspective for the most part.
the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal bread.
#60. To: Jethro Tull (#55)
Come off it Buck, that rubber stamping of a war born of insane notions from Israeli right wingers and the Bush Administration is not remotely the same thing as a declaration of war Congress has to pass. What the Israelis did got the results only badly thought out notions of war generate. There was no excuse for this invasion.
"In my way of thinking, they at least have the balls to declare war upon Lebanon."
+ + = #61. To: Badeye After Five (#58)
Hell yes. I've never had the kind of ... flexibility... needed to give myself a Hummer. I've always relied on the kindness of strangers.
So what's the problem? My business was doing good - well at least in cyber space it was - and so I gave myself a Hummer. Most people arn't capable of giving themselves a Hummer. Does this make you jealous?
the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal bread.
#62. To: Badeye After Five (#58)
Badeye, i assume you're good at hummers? If so, perhaps it could be a part time gig?
#63. To: bluedogtxn (#59)
nice post, bluedog. thanks.
"Freedom4um" -- The Forum for Real Americans and where America and Americans are always First!
#64. To: christine (#63)
de nada, es la verdad, solamente.
nice post, bluedog. thanks.
the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal bread.
#65. To: buckeroo (#54)
Goldi, the IsraelFirster, flips off the UN then and AmericaFirsters now.
#66. To: bluedogtxn (#59)
I don't know
anyone on this site who hates Jews. Most posters here would like to discuss
Israel's and in particular the Zionists' intentions, in an open way. Because
of MSM's lopsided broadcasts on anything remotely connected to Israel and/or
Jewish organizations, what you see is an attempt to counter-balance that skewed
viewpoint. Most posters here believe American interests should be considered
first, and see ZioNazis running our foreign policy in deference to Israeli
interests. And they are not even doing a good job of it for Israel or US.
That many foreign govts may also have a disproportionate number of Zionists
should be examined, if it is true. If this were any other nation, we would
have no problems discussing that nation's agenda, policies, people or religion.
Unlike some on this site, I don't hate Jews or think there is a
"Jewish conspiracy" to take over the world.
"If there’s another 9/11 or a major war in the Middle-East involving a U.S. attack on Iran, I have no doubt that there will be, the day after or within days an equivalent of a Reichstag fire decree that will involve massive detentions in this country." - Daniel Ellsberg Author, Pentagon Papers
#67. To: robin (#66)
That's dead on truth, there. But there seems to be a tendence among some to "see a jew behind every bush"... Israel is doing what any smaller, dependent parasite nation would do to its host. It digs in deeper and sucks as much blood as it can, because it never knows when it'll be plucked out and discarded.
Most posters here believe American interests should be considered first, and see ZioNazis running our foreign policy in deference to Israeli interests. And they are not even doing a good job of it for Israel or US.
the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal bread.
#68. To: bluedogtxn (#67)
We don't know what Israel and the ZioNazis are up to, completely. But that is what we are trying to determine here, since no MSM investigative journalist will. Carl Cameron had an Israeli spy special that never aired anywhere but on the internet. Have you seen it?
"If there’s another 9/11 or a major war in the Middle-East involving a U.S. attack on Iran, I have no doubt that there will be, the day after or within days an equivalent of a Reichstag fire decree that will involve massive detentions in this country." - Daniel Ellsberg Author, Pentagon Papers
#69. To: robin (#68)
Nope. I'd like to, though.
Carl Cameron had an Israeli spy special that never aired anywhere but on the internet. Have you seen it?
the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal bread.
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