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Editorial See other Editorial Articles Title: This is a coup This is a coup If Gordon Brown succeeds in driving Tony Blair from office, the legacy will be dire. September 6, 2006 05:01 PM In more than 100 years of its history, the Labour party has never had a leadership coup. But it's got one now and, rather like in a real coup d'etat, it's too early to say whether this one is going to succeed or what its legacy will be. Let's assume that Gordon Brown's coup works and that he now drives Tony Blair from office much earlier than even the reduced timetable to which Blair is now reconciled - in other words that he forces Blair to quit any time between now and early 2007. The legacy of that will be threefold. First, it will leave a certain amount of individual bitterness at the top, which will mean that some Blairites - perhaps even Blair himself - will finally feel emboldened to tell the world (even if the world isn't interested) what they think about Brown and the way he has operated over the past 12 years. Second, it will leave a traumatised party which could - in spite of Labour's 100-year history of pulling together when it matters - create ideological divides of the kind that haven't been seen in its ranks since the Bennite insurgency of the late 1970s and early 80s. In the short run it guarantees an even more difficult conference later this month. In the long run it could even lead to splits in the Labour party itself. And third, it will have a destructive effect on Labour's standing in the country. Voters do not like divided parties. They have a long record of punishing them whenever they get the chance. Now that there is a presentable Tory party for the first time in more than a decade, there is every chance that a large tranche of voters will say it's time to give the other lot a chance. Brown is taking a fantastic risk in mounting this coup. If it fails, like the forerunner attempt in May did, he will have caused mayhem in the Labour party with no reward. If he overcomes his caution and sees it through this time, though, he could be winning a pyrrhic victory. And by ousting his one-time ally, he may achieve something that until now seemed wholly impossible - stirring up sympathy for Blair.
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