The 2007 hurricane season: a lamb too? There have been nine named storms so far during this year's Atlantic hurricane season. Jeff Masters thinks we'll probably only get one more storm between now and when hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
So, at the beginning of the year, do you recall anyone predicting an average hurricane season (9.6 named storms) for the Atlantic? Bill Gray predicted 17 storms. NOAA called for 13 to 16 storms. Joe Bastardi said the United States was going to get hit by three major hurricanes. Even some knucklehead calling himself SciGuy called for 17 named storms using his ultra-unsophisticated "averaging" system.
But wait a minute: Houston's Weather Research Center, which has been making forecasts for 20 years, had a decidedly different outlook. Jill Hasling and her team predicted 11 named storms, which is probably going to be right on target.
The research center uses a model based on the premise that orbital effects in the solar system influence circulation patterns on both the sun and Earth. The orbital effects are reflected on the sun by sunspot activity, which mirror a similar effect on Earth. Each year of the 10- to 13-year-long sunspot cycle represents a phase in the research center's model for earthbound storms. More information here.
Are you ready for the good news? The Weather Research Center forecasts a whopping total of seven named storms for 2007. Here's hoping they're correct!