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Science/Tech See other Science/Tech Articles Title: K7RA Solar Update The K7RA Solar Update SEATTLE, WA, Oct 5, 2006 -- This report is appearing one day early this week to accommodate travel schedules. Daily sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher this week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose by nearly 22 points to 34.6. Average daily solar flux was up nearly by 6 points to 76.7. September 30 ended the third quarter of 2006, so now is a good time to review quarterly averages of daily sunspot numbers and solar flux, to examine the current solar cycle's downward trend. From the first quarter of 2004 through the third quarter of 2006, the average daily sunspot number was 72.9, 71.3, 69.3, 61, 46.1, 55.7, 58, 36, 18.1, 39.7 and 23.5. The average daily solar flux for the same period was 111.1, 99.5, 111, 104.8, 96.4, 93.1, 93.6, 84.5, 78.5, 82.1 and 77.5. That still looks like a steady downward slope as we end Sunspot Cycle 23. The Space Environment Center (SEC) forecast still predicts a low point for sunspot numbers during the March-April time frame next year. This is based on a smoothed sunspot number, so those daily values are averaged over six months to produce a smoothed value centered in the middle of the period. So when we finally get there, it may not be immediately apparent that we have reached the bottom of the cycle because of daily variation. But if it is anything like the last minimum -- 10 years ago this month -- we should observe at least several weeks of no sunspots at all. Earlier this year we discussed the predictions of researcher Mausumi Dikpata, who said that Cycle 24 may be a big one. She used observations of the Great Conveyor Belt, a huge circulating current of hot plasma inside the sun, which takes about 40 years to complete a full rotation. The speed of this belt seems to correlate well with solar activity some 20 years in the future. The movement has slowed considerably, leading NASA solar physicist David Hathaway to predict weak activity for Cycle 25, peaking around 2022. You can read about it at http://www.physorg.com/news66581392.html. The California QSO Party is this weekend, October 7-8. Here are some projections using W6ELprop to see what propagation to California from various locations may be like this weekend: From Boston, 15-meter propagation may be possible, especially if sunspot numbers stay steady or increase. The best times would be 1600-2100 UTC. Check 20 meters 1430-0030 UTC, with stronger signals late in the period. 40 and 80 meters look best from 0030-1130 UTC. From Atlanta, 10 meter chances look slim, but the most likely openings for that band and 15 meters as well should be around 1600-2300 UTC. Check 20 meters 1300-1400 UTC and 1545-0300 UTC, with strongest signals in the last four hours of that period. 40 meters looks good 2200-0130 UTC, and excellent 0200-1200 UTC, and still good around 1230-1600 UTC. 80 meters should be good after dark, but best 0330-1100 UTC. From the center of the 48 contiguous United States, check 20 meters 1500-0200 UTC, and 40 meters should be open around the clock, with strongest signals 0130-1300 UTC, and weakest around 1630-2130 UTC. 80 meters looks best 0230-1230 UTC. From Chicago, 10 meters has a small chance of openings in the 1730-2130 UTC time slot. 15 meters looks very good 1630-2230 UTC and possibly later. 20 meters looks best 1330-1530 UTC, and 2230-0230 UTC. 40 meters may be open all day and night, with the best signals 0130-1200 UTC and weakest 1700-2030 UTC. 80 meters looks best 0330-1130 UTC. From Dallas, check 15 meters 1730-2200 UTC, 20 meters 1400-0230 UTC. 40 meters should be good over a 24 hour period, with best chances 0100-1300 UTC and weakest around 1730-2030 UTC. 80 meters looks strongest 0300-1200 UTC. From Salt Lake City, 80 meters should be open all day and night. Best 80-meter signals 0130-1330 UTC and weakest 1700-2200 UTC. The best bet on 40 meters is 1430-0300 UTC. For More Information For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page and the article "The Sun, the Earth, the Ionosphere: What the Numbers Mean, and Propagation Predictions," by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. An archive of past bulletins is on the ARRL Web site. The propagation charts that formerly appeared in QST now are available on the QST Propagation Charts page on the ARRL Web site. Weekly Sunspot Numbers Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4 were 36, 51, 38, 35, 36, 23 and 23 with a mean of 34.6. The 10.7 cm flux was 73, 76.5, 77.7, 78.4, 77.9, 76.6, and 76.7, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 12, 25, 7, 5 and 3, with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 9, 14, 6, 6 and 2, with, a mean of 6.
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#1. To: Tauzero (#0)
Are you a Ham?? I'm a General.
#2. To: IndieTX (#1)
Brigadier General Ham will address you on issues about Multinational Brigade North operations only. He will not address policy issues or governmental issues. Please keep your questions to those related only to Multinational Brigade North area of operations.
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