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Title: Was The North Korean Blast Nuclear? A Tricky Question For Scientists
Source:
Associated Press
URL Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006 ... EN_Detecting_Nuclear_Tests.php
Published: Oct 9, 2006
Author: Associated Press
Post Date: 2006-10-09 14:15:39 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 131
Comments: 4
Published: October 9, 2006 PARIS North Korea sets off an earthshaking explosion — and claims it was nuclear. Was it? For scientists, that was not a quick and easy question to answer. Like earthquakes, large explosions send out shockwaves that can be detected on seismographs. Big nuclear bombs make big waves, with clear signatures that make them fairly easy to detect, analyze and confirm that they were caused by splitting atoms. But smaller blasts — as North Korea's appears to have been — are trickier to break down. The natural sound of the Earth, with its constant seismic activity of tectonic plates grinding together, complicates the task of trying to determine whether a smaller blast was caused by conventional explosives or a nuclear device, said Xavier Clement of France's Atomic Energy Commission. He likened the problem to trying to "detect the violins or a flute in a symphony orchestra when you are playing the cymbals." His agency estimated the North Korean blast at around 1 kiloton or less — equivalent to the explosive force of 1,000 tons of TNT. For a nuclear device, that would be so weak that the French defense minister suggested that "there could have been a failure" with the North Korean reported test. Clement said it could take days before scientists can declare with certainty whether the explosion was nuclear or not. And when blasts are very weak, "we could be in a situation where we cannot tell the difference between the two," he said. The United States, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea are among the countries with equipment strong enough and close enough to monitor a North Korean test, according to Russian nuclear physicist Vladimir Orlov of the PIR Center, a nonproliferation think-tank. "It takes days, dozens of lab hours, to evaluate results. Now we can have only a rough estimate," he said. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization, or CTBTO, has about 200 stations worldwide designed for monitoring nuclear tests as part of what it hopes will become the world's most reliable source for such tests. But until the treaty comes into force, the data is not made public, only released to governments and vetted partners. Seismic data comes in almost immediately, and is usually passed to governments within an hour or so. Their scientists must decide what the numbers and graphs mean. With the North Korean blast, there were wide variations. While the French atomic agency estimated around 1 kiloton and South Korea's geological institute 0.5 kilotons, Russia's defense minister said there was "no doubt" that North Korea detonated a nuclear test and said the force of the underground blast was equivalent to 5,000 to 15,000 tons of TNT. "People have different way of cross cutting the data and interpreting them," said Lassina Zerbo, director of the International Data Center at the CTBTO, which is based in Vienna, Austria. The test ban treaty, which bans all nuclear explosions, will not enter into force until it has been ratified by 44 states who possess either nuclear power or research reactors. So far 34 have ratified it. Holdouts include the United States, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. The CTBTO's stations are more extensive than those used by most countries. They monitor seismic events but also underwater data, radioactive particles in the air and radiowaves. "Within 72 hours we will have full data. Then all this will be available to member states," said Zerbo. While the North Korean explosion was small, potentially complicating monitoring efforts, sensors in South Korea were likely close enough to categorize it as nuclear, if that is what is was, said Friedrich Steinhaeusler, professor of physics at Salzburg University. A nuclear blast also gives off a clear signature — a clear graph of peaks and curves — that differentiates it from other kinds of shocks, he added. "We'll have the confirmation soon," he said. ___ Associated Press Writer Angela Charlton contributed to this report from Paris.
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
Anything short of an above ground filmed test with positive fallout readings won't convince me that North Korea has nukes. I don't think their impoverished regime- both economically and spiritually- is capable of making a nuclear weapon. The reason the paranoid isolated regime of North Korea would want the world to think they have nukes is self evident- survival. The reason the United States wants to advance such a fiction is regional force projection- their bases in South Korea- to keep China hemmed in- the Koreas divided- and to keep South Korea and Japan out of China's political orbit as they move ever closer into their economic orbit. Now- fostering this belief that the North has nukes may give US hegemonic influence in the region another ten years- but it is only forestalling the inevitable- a sea change of alliances in China's favor away from the United States- which would be followed closely by the economic consequences (which will be enormous) for the US.
The United States under Clinton was feeding, clothing, and giving the North Koreans the lifestyle they were accustomed to. How do you think they built up their military? The idea of these third world assclowns getting nukes is pretty damned funny to me, considering their people are starving. Why would North Korea need nukes anyway? They're allies with China. Like they're going to need protection from the United States, when China, their closest ally has American Nuclear Technology sold to them by the Clinton administration. So, why would NK need nukes? They call it Nuclear Blackmail. If I were a third world country leader, whose people were starving, and had basically worn out my welcome with a country that has a lot of food, I'd be saber rattling too to get their attention. That is ALL NK is doing. Saber rattling, and if we conduct airstrikes on them, I assure you that it will come out that they never had nukes, and the US will get a big black eye over it. Dropping bombs on NK, is something the CHINESE should be doing. Let Asia take care of Asia's problems, and if it becomes OUR problem, then let US deal with it.
Who know WHAT DearLeader exploded?
#2. To: Brian S (#0)
#3. To: Burkeman1 (#2)
 | What's that Mr. Nipples? You want me to ask the nice lady about her rack?. |
#4. To: TommyTheMadArtist (#3)
The Chinese government relationship to North Korea is nuanced. On the one hand the Beijing government is still nominally "Communist"- that is their party rule is still justified by socialist rhetoric (though even that has changed much and the emphasis is on nationalism now). A million Chinese troops died fighting for the North Korean regime. On the other hand trade and contact with South Korea only grows exponentially with each passing day. South Korea and China engage in mutally beneficial commerce. What is North Korea to China? A giant sucking drain in aid and a public relations nightmare given their human rights record. IN other words- North Korea is an albatross for Beijing that they would love to be free of. They know a united Korea under Southern terms would benefit them far more than the United States. Lingering ideologically consistency makes them adopt a low key "support" for the North Korean regime- but clearly they would love to be free of this obligation. A nuclear armed North Korea is in no way in the interests of "Red" China. The perception of a nuclear armed North Korea is, However, very much in the interests of the United States (or at least the crooks in DC).
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