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Title: REPORT: "Republican officials now concede they could lose a net of 23 to 27 seats in the House"
Source:
Time
URL Source: http://time-blog.com/allen_report/
Published: Oct 18, 2006
Author: Mike Allen
Post Date: 2006-10-20 00:49:06 by Uncle Bill
Keywords: Goodbye, and, So Long
Views: 140
Comments: 6
Time By holding their breath, for starters. With party strategists increasingly afraid the Senate is slipping away, Republican officials are moving money around in high-stakes triage. Republican officials are trying to project confidence about keeping the Senate by spending heavily, and forcing Democrats to do the same, in blue states like Michigan, Maryland and New Jersey. But: Florida in 2000. Ohio in '04. Virginia in '06? Strategists in both parties tell TIME that they now believe control of the Senate could turn on a race that wasn't on anyone's toss-up list two months ago -- the Democratic challenge by former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) to Senator George Allen, a once-popular Republican who has suffered an epidemic of self-inflicted wounds. Top GOP officials deny they are depending on any one state, or that an implosion in any particular state such as Ohio necessarily means disaster on Nov. 7. "We've always had a couple of scenarios for keeping the Senate -- I think that's the best way to play it," said a Republican Party decision-maker who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to be more candid. "I'm not saying this is a great year. It is possible." The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which had once hoped the son of the legendary Washington Redskins coach would be able to fend for himself, is having to spend $900,000 on radio ads and mailings in Virginia to try to shore up Allen, a boot-wearing, tobacco-dipping conservative who once hoped to fill the Ronald Reagan niche in the '08 presidential field. The committee had already spent $450,000 there, but decided this week that it would have to spend the maximum it can, doubling its investment. "Senator Allen has to make sure his margins are high in Southwest Virginia, and then he has to neutralize somewhat Northern Virginia," the Republican official said. "He's focused on both of those, but the environment's tough." President George W. Bush is appearing Thursday at a fund-raising reception at the Science Museum of Virginia, in Richmond -- a telling sign of how critical the race has become. Republican officials say they budgeted money for Virginia, and deny that it's a hardship. But that IS $900,000 that can't help transfuse Sen. Mike DeWine in Ohio -- a race that some GOP officials believe is lost but that others insist remains a top priority. And it's $900,000 that can't help Republicans pull off a coup in New Jersey, where even Democrats concede that Sen. Robert Menendez is vulnerable to Tom Kean Jr., a Republican whose father was Governor, because of continuing revelations about Menendez links to corruption. "We're optimistic about New Jersey," the GOP official said. "People see him as a crook. It's on the front page of the newspaper all the time. It's in these people's minds." On the other side, a new ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) says Kean "sided with George Bush" on Iraq and concludes: "Tom Kean Junior. Wrong on Bush. Wrong on Iraq. Wrong for New Jersey." The political world went into a tizzy on Monday after the lead story of The New York Times, based on authoritative sourcing, said party officials had decided "to effectively write off" DeWine's seat. Several polls since then have showed the Democrat, Sherrod Brown, opening up a sizeable lead over DeWine. Phil Singer, the DSCC communications director, gleefully issued a memo accusing Republicans of a "Cut & Run" strategy in Ohio. Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman held a conference call with Ohio reporters to say that DeWine remains an "incredibly top priority." "We're putting our money where our mouth is," Mehlman said on the call. "No state will receive more resources from the Republican National Committee than Ohio. From this point forward, we will spend millions more on turnout and millions more on message. We have a huge staff. And intend and have right now a very aggressive program." A national party committee on Tuesday launched a new television ad campaign attacking Brown. Another Republican official said the party is banking on the message that Brown is "incredibly liberal, and the state just isn't that liberal, and there's time for people to learn a lot more about Brown." As proof that they are not limiting themselves to a few firewall states, NRSC officials say they are spending $650,000 in Maryland, where Lt. Gov. Michael Steele once was one of the party's greatest hopes to pick up a Democratic seat, but finds himself struggling against Democrat Ben Cardin in an overwhelmingly Democratic state. Republican officials now concede they could lose a net of 23 to 27 seats in the House, that higher figure being close to twice the 15 Democrats would need to take control. Democrats would need six seats to take control of the Senate, and Republican officials tell TIME they see several scenarios for warding that off. One Republican strategist close to the White House gave this forecast: "We're going to lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island. That's three. Virginia, I think we hold. Tennessee, I think we hold. I'm less certain we're going to hold Missouri and I'm least certain we hold Montana. But to take control, Democrats have to win three of those four, and that's unlikely." If Democrats picked up five, the chamber would be 50-50, guaranteeing frequent appearances by Vice President Cheney as President of the Senate. Some White House officials became convinced that the House might be lost after they saw polls showing the page scandal had brutalized Republican approval ratings, and one senior party official says that's also part of the reason that the party's hold on the Senate is in such peril. "I kind of see the Foley thing as the tipping point," the official said. "People are just unhappy already and that just did it."
How Republicans Hope to Hold the Senate
Mike Allen
October 18, 2006
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#1. To: Uncle Bill (#0)
Something isn't passing the smell test. Earlier this evening I heard, or read, that rove is firmly convinced they are going to hold onto both houses. And while I concede I try not to keep up with the liar in chief, I haven't heard much in the way of his 'leading the charge' in keeping all their henchmen in the halls of dc gubmint. And yet, you hear he's out fundraising.........so where are these funds going--towards the buying of the 2008 elections? Something seems wrong.........I don't get the impression the demos are trying to run with the intercepted ball. What's wrong? Something is wrong.
Do I hear a fat lady singing?
ooops, wrong capital. Dang google images! lmao!
Do I hear a fat lady singing?
Wow. That would usher in a whole new age of nothing since the Dems are no differenct from the GOPERs. Same policies- different rhetoric to justify them. And by the way- lets say the GOPERS do lose 27 seats. 11 of those races are open races. That would mean Congress would have something like a 96.5 incumbent re-election rate. Wow. Soviet "elections" had more turnover. Of course- this nominal change of power in congress between two identical parties- in which the only thing that will change is what offices they are in (half the reason these clowns care about control of the House) won't stop our MSM from running with absurd "sea change" stories about Democrat mandates. I actually don't think it will be as low as 96.5. I think the incumbent re- election rate will be over 98 percent this year. I would wager not more than 5 sitting congressmen will lose their seats- Dem or GOPER.
Traitors like Rove should be swinging from the highest yard arm in Newport News, Virginia.
“The tendency of democracies is, in all things, to mediocrity, since the tastes, knowledge, and principles of the majority form the tribunal of appeal.” James Fenimore Cooper
Likely true after the e-votes are "tabulated." LOL
“The tendency of democracies is, in all things, to mediocrity, since the tastes, knowledge, and principles of the majority form the tribunal of appeal.” James Fenimore Cooper
#2. To: Uncle Bill, Jethro Tull, Christine, Rowdee (#0)
(Edited)
#3. To: All (#2)
#4. To: Uncle Bill (#0)
#5. To: Uncle Bill (#0)
#6. To: Burkeman1 (#4)
I actually don't think it will be as low as 96.5. I think the incumbent re- election rate will be over 98 percent this year. I would wager not more than 5 sitting congressmen will lose their seats- Dem or GOPER.
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