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Title: Why Israel will go to war again – soon
Source:
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URL Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/ ... /opinion/2006/11/03/do0302.xml
Published: Nov 4, 2006
Author: John Keegan
Post Date: 2006-11-04 12:29:17 by innieway
Keywords: None
Views: 210
Comments: 12
There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defence Force (IDF) and Hizbollah. The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hizbollah's fortified zone in south Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel. Hizbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is replenishing its stocks of missiles there. Hamas is also creating a fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of missiles. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike. What happened in south Lebanon earlier this year has been widely misunderstood, largely because the anti-Israel bias in the international media led to the situation being misreported as an Israeli defeat. It was no such thing. It was certainly an Israeli setback, but the idea that the IDF had suddenly lost its historic superiority over its Arab enemies and that they had acquired military qualities that had hitherto eluded them was quite false. Hizbollah suffered heavy losses in the fighting, perhaps as many as 1,000 killed out of its strength of up to 5,000 and it is only just now recovering. What allowed Hizbollah to appear successful was its occupation of the bunker-and-tunnel system that it had constructed since June 2000, when the IDF gave up its presence in south Lebanon, which it had occupied since 1982. Although the IDF had got into south Lebanon, the casualties it had suffered in entering the fortified zone had alarmed the government and high command, since Israel's tiny population is acutely vulnerable to losses in battle. Israel's plan was to destroy Hizbollah's tunnels and bunkers, but the sending of a United Nations intervention force did not allow the destruction to be completed before the IDF was forced to withdraw. Tunnel systems have played a crucial part in many modern campaigns, without attracting much attention. That is a serious oversight. The success of the Viet Cong in sustaining its war effort in Vietnam in 1968-72 depended heavily on its use of the so-called War Zone B, a complex of deep tunnels and underground bases north of Saigon, which had been begun during the war against the French in 1946-55. War Zone B provided the Viet Cong with a permanent base of refuge and resupply that proved effectively invulnerable even against a determined American effort to destroy it. War Zone B has now become a major tourist attraction to Western visitors to Vietnam. In its time, however, War Zone B was very far from being a holiday facility: it assured the survival of the Viet Cong close to Saigon and their ability to mount operations against the government forces and the Americans. Hizbollah, either by mimicry or on its own account, has now begun to employ a tunnel and underground base strategy against Israel. It was for that reason it was able to confront Israeli armoured forces in south Lebanon earlier this year. The adoption of a tunnel strategy has allowed Hizbollah to wage asymmetric warfare against Israel's previously all-conquering armoured forces. The tunnel system is also impervious to attack by the Israeli Air Force. Since Israel's reason for existence is to provide a secure base for the Jewish people, and that of the IDF is to act as their shield and safeguard – functions that have been carried out with high success since 1948 – it is obvious that neither can tolerate a zone of invulnerability occupied by a sworn enemy located directly on Israel's northern border. It is therefore an easy prediction to foresee that the IDF will – at some time in the near future – reopen its offensive against Hizbollah in south Lebanon and will not cease until it has destroyed the underground system, even if, in the process, it inflicts heavy damage on the towns and villages of the region. It is likely that it will also move against the underground system being constructed in the Gaza Strip. Hamas resupplies itself with arms and munitions brought from Egypt through those channels. Gaza is a softer target than south Lebanon, since it is an enclave that Israel easily dominates. Indeed, the IDF may attack Gaza as a distraction from south Lebanon in an effort to make Hizbollah divide its forces and efforts. Destroying the underground military facilities may be straightforward, but it is likely to create diplomatic complexities, particularly with the UN. Entering south Lebanon risks provoking a clash with Unifil, the major part of whose strength is provided by France. It is unlikely that such a risk will deter Israel. When national survival is at risk, Israel behaves with extreme ruthlessness. It attacked an American communications ship during the Six-Day War because it objected to America listening in to its most secret signals. The big question hanging over an Israeli return to south Lebanon is whether that would provoke a war with Syria, Lebanon's Arab protector. The answer is quite possibly yes, but that such an extension of hostilities might prove welcome both to Israel and to the United States, which regards Syria as Iran's advanced post on the Mediterranean shore. What is certain is that – probably before the year is out – Israel will have struck at Hizbollah in south Lebanon. And the strike will come even sooner if Hizbollah reopens its missile bombardment of northern Israel from its underground systems.
Poster Comment: But as bad as this little jewel of poopaganda is, what really amazed me is the commentary on the webpage following this nonsense. Everytime I begin to think that people are starting to wake up I see comments like those responding to this story and start thinking "we're screwed"..
What happened in south Lebanon earlier this year has been widely misunderstood, largely because the anti-Israel bias in the international media led to the situation being misreported as an Israeli defeat. It was no such thing. It was certainly an Israeli setback, but the idea that the IDF had suddenly lost its historic superiority over its Arab enemies and that they had acquired military qualities that had hitherto eluded them was quite false.
What total bullshit this story is.... This asshole Keegan is obviously an Israel firster. The only line of the story with any truth to it at all is "such an extension of hostilities might prove welcome both to Israel and to the United States".
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#1. To: innieway (#0)
There is money to be made from wars. Just check history, whole lot of wars.
Someone needs to explain to the idiot author the difference between missiles and rockets. I suspect he already knows, which is why "missile" was used so frequently.
When the going gets weird the weird turn pro. - Hunter S Thompson
I only hope that this time these indiscriminate racist murderers get their asses handed to them.
God is always good!
I'm sure he does know. It fits right in with the rest of the poopaganda in the story. Idiot is too nice a word for the blood-sucking, vampiracal, scumbag, Izzy firster author of that horseshit.
The public will believe anything, so long as it is not founded on truth. —Edith Sitwell
Ricky J: I only hope that this time these indiscriminate racist murderers get their asses handed to them. The mighty muscular armed to the teeth IDF got their asses handed to them this summer by a rag tag group of Hezbollah fighters. The Israelis facing off against an organized standing army of Iranians who have 8 years of battle experience fighting Saddam????...ummmmm, I think there's a pretty good chance that the Israelis might have a rather tough time in that scenario...the Iranians have many many more millions of warm bodies and then there's that tricky Iranian terrain...also there's that economic weapon called OIL, which alas, the poor Israelis are rather short of and which is rather essential to run tanks and aircraft on and warm those homes in Europe and Japan and China...if Israel thinks it can fly into Iran drop a few bombs and fly out and there wouls be no consequences then they are as wacky nutty as their compadres in the Israel Lobby who thought that freed Iraqis would embrace Israel as a pal once Saddam was removed. And meanwhile Israel's military ally is barely treading water in Shia governed Iraq... When has the IDF ever won anything without the USA bailing its arrogant butts out of a jam? Only this time round, rumdum's centurions are up to their ears in desert quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan. Here's how all this Iran hooey will go down - my prediction - the Israelis and their American chickenhawk comrades in arms ( small joke - can you see the likes of Mikey Ledeen and Dickey Perle taking up arms? har har faster faster Mikey do those laps in the gymn you only have 50 fat ass pounds to lose) anyways Israelis and their agents will mutter and chomp at the bit and beat their bullyboy chests and Israel will do nothing to Iran. However, what Israel might do to keep its IDF "fighter" morale and spirit up is beat up and annihilate a few more thousand unarmed Palestinian civilians. There you go, that's how Israelis like their battles - easy powerless victims - the poor Palis are in for a rough ride the next 2 years.
a-hole bump
That's why we have Americans, to suffer casualties on behalf of Israel. Nobody here gives a damn when our soldiers die. And they keep volunteering, so maybe they even want to die themselves. What was that phrase Kissinger had for them?
Thank you. That was an enjoyable 1.08 min. spent! I particularly enjoyed watching the two Khazar Jews walking behind the tank run away!
The Solution is to apply, for the first time in the history of the United States, the Constitution to Washington, D.C.
Israel will go to war, and influence OUR election. All of our politics are really about Israeli interests in the region, and have nothing to do with a war on terror. I'm sure there are terrorists being picked up here and there, but realistically, when Saddam's trial is over, and if he's found NOT GUILTY, you better believe that the United States will be in some serious shit. If Saddam is found guilty, we'll likely see some kind of uprising, but it will be shortlived. My concern is for our military being caught in the middle of a foreign civil war, and be horrifically outnumbered, and outclassed by rival militaries waiting in the wings.
There will soon be another war in the Middle East,
#2. To: innieway (#0)
#3. To: innieway (#0)
When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike.
"It was an interesting day." - President Bush, recalling 9/11 [White House, 1/5/02]
#4. To: Dakmar (#2)
Bring 'em on...
“Yes, but is this good for Jews?"
#5. To: Dakmar (#2)
Someone needs to explain to the idiot author the difference between missiles and rockets. I suspect he already knows,
#6. To: RickyJ (#3)
article: When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike.
#7. To: innieway (#0)
What total bullshit this story is.... This asshole Keegan is obviously an Israel firster. The only line of the story with any truth to it at all is "such an extension of hostilities might prove welcome both to Israel and to the United States".
#8. To: innieway (#0)
Although the IDF had got into south Lebanon, the casualties it had suffered in entering the fortified zone had alarmed the government and high command, since Israel's tiny population is acutely vulnerable to losses in battle.
#9. To: Eoghan (#4)
#10. To: innieway (#0)
 | What's that Mr. Nipples? You want me to ask the nice lady about her rack?. |
#11. To: TommyTheMadArtist (#10)
No lie. But that won't happen (Saddam being found NOT guilty)... What a fucking joke. What was he on trial for??? Killing 148 Iraqis?? And the US is responsible for a grand total of over 1,000,000 Iraqi deaths (counting the ones that died as a result of the sanctions we imposed during the Clinton regime). One thing is CERTAIN. He won't be found guilty of possessing weapons of mass destruction, nor chemical weapons, nor ties with Al-CIAda.....
and if he's found NOT GUILTY, you better believe that the United States will be in some serious shit.
The public will believe anything, so long as it is not founded on truth. —Edith Sitwell
#12. To: innieway (#11)
A few more than that but way less than we've killed and the Iraqis he killed with "chemical" weapons - you know the stuff that Sean and Pills always kept repeating Uncle Saddam used "against his own people" - well, don't spread this around to many people but I think "The Google" research indicates that perhaps... ahem...we supplied the chemical stuff for the dasterdly deed...well originally we thought Uncle Saddam would use the chemical stuff on the Iranians but he used it on the Kurds AND the Iranians. That's why the Iranians hate us and Uncle Saddam both. But don't tell anyone what I've told you.
What a fucking joke. What was he on trial for??? Killing 148 Iraqis??
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