Census: Oregon 10th fastest-growing state 08:41 AM PDT on Thursday, April 21, 2005
By CHARLES E. BEGGS, Associated Press Writer
SALEM -- Oregon will be the 10th fastest-growing state in the next 25 years as its population increases to 4.8 million by 2030, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
In projections issued Wednesday, the bureau forecast that Oregon's 3.4 million population in the official 2000 Census will rise by 1.4 million by 2030 -- a 41 percent jump.
That's less than the 46 percent growth forecast for neighboring Washington, which is projected to have 8.6 million people by 2030 and the ninth-fastest growth rate.
The expected pace of growth in both states is well above the overall 29 percent population increase predicted for the United States by 2030.
The government estimates that California will gain another 12.5 million people by 2030 for a 37 percent gain since the 2000 Census. Census Bureau estimates peg Oregon as the second-fastest growing state in the Pacific region, including Alaska and Hawaii along with the three West Coast states.
The bureau estimates Oregon will rank 25th in population among the states by 2030, compared with 28th in 2000.
The census estimates "are pretty much in line" with separate population forecasts that are done by Oregon's Office of Economic Analysis, said Kanhaiya Vaidya, a population researcher in the office.
Vaidya said the agency foresees Oregon continuing to grow by net "in-migration" -- meaning more people moving into state than leaving.
A major reason is that the state is seen as attractive to seniors, he said.
"We believe the elderly population will keep coming to retire in Oregon," he said.
The Census Bureau predicts the number of people 65 and older in Oregon is expected to double by 2030 from their numbers in 2000, a rate of increase in line with the expected national trend.
At the same time, it's estimated that Oregon will drop from 25th in the proportion of its population that is 65 and older to 39th in 2030.
Even as Oregon's senior numbers rise, the proportion of people over 65 could drop compared with other states, Vaidya said. Other states with aging populations face relatively large numbers of their young people moving elsewhere.
Vaidya's office predicts that 19.4 percent of Oregon's people in 2030 will be 65 or older, a bit higher than the 18.2 percent forecast by the Census Bureau. That age group comprised 12.8 percent of Oregon's population in 2000.
Retirees, my ass! Next I'll post what the bastards are too cowardly to report. It isn't retirees that are fueling the growth in the state. I'll bet you can guess what is, though...