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Title: A Few Superbowl Proposition Wagers Worthy of Consideration
Source:
Majorwager.com
URL Source: http://majorwager.com/index.cfm?page=27&show_column=418
Published: Feb 4, 2007
Author: Jay Graziani
Post Date: 2007-02-04 11:14:10 by SmokinOPs
Keywords: sportsbook, prop bets, superbowl
Views: 215
Comments: 5
Superbowl season is always one of the most interesting times of the year for sports wagering. All of the hype surrounding the big game makes for numerous betting opportunities - some books have over 200 different proposition bets to choose from. With the sheer number of lines on the board, every bettor is sure to find a few attractive options, but sorting through the dozens of wagers available can be difficult. There are three key considerations that proposition bettors should keep in mind this weekend: First, aggressive line shopping will definitely pay off. There is a lot of variation between sportsbooks on the line offered on any particular bet. Hunting down the best one will add substantially to your bottom line. Second, be sure to keep in mind that prop bets can be highly correlated, meaning they can both be affected in the same way due to game events. For instance, team to record first sack and total team sacks are related - if Indianapolis records the first sack, it helps the Indianapolis sacks "over" prop. Likewise, a lot of "scoring props" are highly correlated to the spread and total. Be careful not to make too many correlated wagers that can all end up losers together. For instance, if betting two related sack props, you probably want to bet less than your normal amount on each one to minimize your total exposure. Last, remember that this is only one game. It's easy to get carried away making a lot of wagers with all the options out there, but ultimately anything can happen on a given day. Keep good money management practices in mind and don't over bet your bankroll on this one game. Something to keep in mind this weekend is the tremendous amount of public, or "square", money that is flowing in on the prop wagers. Props get little attention from recreational bettors during the regular season, but they become a real novelty for the big game. Personally, I try to focus on lines that I think are most likely to be skewed due to public opinion, and then use some statistics to come up with a fair number. I took a look through the props available at http://TheGreek.com and found a few worth considering. Indianapolis first downs UNDER 22 -150 Chicago has allowed 22 or more first downs only once all season - to Saint Louis in Week 13. Only 4 times all year has Chicago even allowed 20 first downs to an opponent, and one of those was the meaningless Week 17 game against Green Bay. Although the Colts have a great offense (averaging almost 24 first downs per game), they are facing a very good defense that has allowed an average of only 15 first downs per game. I'd put the break-even line on this prop at about -190 considering the season-long stats. Devin Hester first punt return will be OVER 9.5 yards -115 Indianapolis ranked 2nd last in the league this season in allowing 13.1 yards per punt return. Meanwhile, Chicago was 2nd best in punt return yardage this year with an average of 12.1 yards per punt return. With the explosive return abilities of Devin Hester, the over is worth a look. I took a look at a number of quarterback sack stats. Much has been made of the "improved" Indianapolis defense - they have really over-performed in the playoffs, recording 7 sacks in their 3 games. However, they only recorded 25 sacks during the regular season, tied for 2nd worst in the league. Both teams have better than average offensive lines, and Indianapolis led the league in sacks allowed at only 15 all throughout the regular season. Will the Colts "return to form" or will their defense continue to over perform? Personally, I am not giving extra weight to the "improvement" in the Colts defense and think they should be expected to revert back to their season-long performance. Something else that hasn't received as much attention is that Peyton Manning was sacked 5 times in his 3 playoff games, hitting the ground in the postseason more times than any quarterback other than Drew Brees. In my view, that offers a lot of value for taking a contrarian stand on a number of props: Indianapolis Colts under 2.5 sacks -200 Indianapolis averaged only 1.68 sacks per game this year. As much as Rex Grossman has been criticized, the fact remains that he does not get sacked often - only 1.56 times per game all year. They would have to double their season average to lose this prop. Team to Record First Sack - Chicago +140 My numbers have Chicago and Indianapolis about even in projected sacks in this game. I think the recent performance by the Indianapolis defense definitely provides value on the Bears at what should be closer to a coinflip. Chicago Bears +3.5 +140 I can't conclude without at least throwing my opinion on the game out there. I think Chicago is being greatly underrated in this game and this is my favorite of the alternate line props. Unless a 7.5 shows today, I think this might be the best number available for Chicago backers in this game.
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#1. To: SmokinOPs (#0)
They football pool where I work was $5 a square grid of some sort. Didn't seem altogether sporting.
You can fool all of the people some of the time It pays you $125 if the numbers you draw match the last number of the score of each team at the end of any quarter. So, for example, if you drew a "7" for Chicago and a "0" For Indy, and the score is Chicago 7 and Indy 10 at halftime you would get 125$ for your bet. Not a good bet based on probability, but they can add a little fun for the disinterested viewer of the game..
But don't all the "good squares" go right away?
You can fool all of the people some of the time No, if done reputably, the grid layout is random. You put your name on a particular square, but the numbers that will correspond with that square are put on randomly after all the squares are filled. So the top axis of the grid could go 1,2,6,5,8,9,3,0,4,7 or any order. Usually it's layed out by taking ten number cards out of a poker deck, shuffling them and then flipping them over to determine the order of each grid axis. If there were numbers already on your grid while people were still filling in squares with names, then the guy who was running the pool is a crook.
Ah, thanks.
All wars are fought for money.
You can fool some of the people all of the time
But you can't fool all of the people all of the time.
Abraham Lincoln, 1864
#2. To: robin (#1)
They football pool where I work was $5 a square grid of some sort. Didn't seem altogether sporting.
#3. To: SmokinOPs (#2)
You can fool some of the people all of the time
But you can't fool all of the people all of the time.
Abraham Lincoln, 1864
#4. To: robin (#3)
(Edited)
But don't all the "good squares" go right away?
#5. To: SmokinOPs (#4)
~Socrates
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