4um: Iraq's death toll is far worse than our leaders admit

Title: Iraq's death toll is far worse than our leaders admit
Source: The Independent
URL Source: http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/article/118356
Published: Feb 14, 2007
Author: Les Roberts
Post Date: 2007-02-14 09:58:38 by leveller
Keywords: None
Views: 36875
Comments: 457

The US and Britain have triggered an episode more deadly than the Rwandan genocide

On both sides of the Atlantic, a process of spinning science is preventing a serious discussion about the state of affairs in Iraq.

The government in Iraq claimed last month that since the 2003 invasion between 40,000 and 50,000 violent deaths have occurred. Few have pointed out the absurdity of this statement.

There are three ways we know it is a gross underestimate. First, if it were true, including suicides, South Africa, Colombia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia have experienced higher violent death rates than Iraq over the past four years. If true, many North and South American cities and Sub-Saharan Africa have had a similar murder rate to that claimed in Iraq. For those of us who have been in Iraq, the suggestion that New Orleans is more violent seems simply ridiculous.

Secondly, there have to be at least 120,000 and probably 140,000 deaths per year from natural causes in a country with the population of Iraq. The numerous stories we hear about overflowing morgues, the need for new cemeteries and new body collection brigades are not consistent with a 10 per cent rise in death rate above the baseline.

And finally, there was a study, peer-reviewed and published in The Lancet, Europe's most prestigious medical journal, which put the death toll at 650,000 as of last July. The study, which I co-authored, was done by the standard cluster approach used by the UN to estimate mortality in dozens of countries each year. While the findings are imprecise, the lower range of possibilities suggested that the Iraq government was at least downplaying the number of dead by a factor of 10.

There are several reasons why the governments involved in this conflict have been able to confuse the issue of Iraqi deaths. Our Lancet report involved sampling and statistical analysis, which is rather dry reading. Media reports always miss most deaths in times of war, so the estimate by the media-based monitoring system, http://Iraqbodycount.org (IBC) roughly corresponds with the Iraq government's figures. Repeated evaluations of deaths identified from sources independent of the press and the Ministry of Health show the IBC listing to be less than 10 per cent complete, but because it matches the reports of the governments involved, it is easily referenced.

Several other estimates have placed the death toll far higher than the Iraqi government estimates, but those have received less press attention. When in 2005, a UN survey reported that 90 per cent of violent attacks in Scotland were not recorded by the police, no one, not even the police, disputed this finding. Representative surveys are the next best thing to a census for counting deaths, and nowhere but Iraq have partial tallies from morgues and hospitals been given such credence when representative survey results are available.

The Pentagon will not release information about deaths induced or amounts of weaponry used in Iraq. On 9 January of this year, the embedded Fox News reporter Brit Hume went along for an air attack, and we learned that at least 25 targets were bombed that day with almost no reports of the damage appearing in the press.

Saddam Hussein's surveillance network, which only captured one third of all deaths before the invasion, has certainly deteriorated even further. During last July, there were numerous televised clashes in Anbar, yet the system recorded exactly zero violent deaths from the province. The last Minister of Health to honestly assess the surveillance network, Dr Ala'din Alwan, admitted that it was not reporting from most of the country by August 2004. He was sacked months later after, among other things, reports appeared based on the limited government data suggesting that most violent deaths were associated with coalition forces.

The consequences of downplaying the number of deaths in Iraq are profound for both the UK and the US. How can the Americans have a surge of troops to secure the population and promise success when the coalition cannot measure the level of security to within a factor of 10? How can the US and Britain pretend they understand the level of resentment in Iraq if they are not sure if, on average, one in 80 families have lost a household member, or one in seven, as our study suggests?

If these two countries have triggered an episode more deadly than the Rwandan genocide, and have actively worked to mask this fact, how will they credibly be able to criticise Sudan or Zimbabwe or the next government that kills thousands of its own people?

For longer than the US has been a nation, Britain has pushed us at our worst of moments to do the right thing. That time has come again with regard to Iraq. It is wrong to be the junior partner in an endeavour rigged to deny the next death induced, and to have spokespeople effectively respond to that death with disinterest and denial.

Our nations' leaders are collectively expressing belligerence at a time when the populace knows they should be expressing contrition. If that cannot be corrected, Britain should end its role in this deteriorating misadventure. It is unlikely that any historians will record the occupation of Iraq in a favourable light. Britain followed the Americans into this débâcle. Wouldn't it be better to let history record that Britain led them out?

The writer is an Associate Professor at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health

This isn't the first report on Iraqi deaths by Les Roberts of John Hopkins to be published by the Lancet. The first one (in which Les was the lead author) claimed 100,000 excess deaths occurred in the first 18 months after the invasion began. This study was *peer reviewed* by the Lancet ... who editors apparently didn't read the report since they proceeded to advertise the first study as saying 100,000 CIVILIANS died during that time, when the study didn't say that at all. But their saying this led thousands of conspiracists and numerous leftist media reporters to claim 100,000 civilians had been murdered by Bush and the evil United States.

In interviews that Les Roberts gave on that first report, he allowed the 100,000 civilian deaths perception to stand uncontested. For example,here (http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/12/14/154251#transcript) is an interview he did with DemocracyNow, a far left media outlet (curious how he could never find time for an interview on a conservative outlet). In it, the interviewer (Gonzalez) says to Roberts "Last year, the prominent British medical journal, Lancet, published a study estimating that over 100,000 Iraqi civilians had died because of the war. The study determined that the risk of death by violence for civilians in Iraq is now 58 times higher than before the U.S. invasion. We are joined in Washington by the lead researcher of that report, Dr. Les Roberts, who is an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.". Les Roberts response didn't correct the misinformation about the study in Gonzalez's statement. He let the assertion that the study concluded a 100,000 civilians died stand. I think he did that because Les Roberts is DISHONEST and has an anti-Bush/anti-war agenda. He has from day one, as you will see.

His dishonesty in the above interview continued when discussing the methodology he used. For example, he said, regarding the interviews with Iraqis on which the study was based, "And at the end of the interview, if they had reported someone dead, on a sub-sample, we asked, can you show us the death certificate? And about 82% of the time, they could do that. And we found that the death rate after the invasion was far, far higher than before." He doesn't mention that only in 2 out of 30 homes claiming deaths did they even ask for a death certificate. Nor does he tell his listeners the reason stated in the report why they didn't ask (fear that they would be hurt by those they asked).

And reading that transcript, you will notice that he doesn' t mention the fact that such organizations as WHO and the UN (hardly Bush advocate's) published pre-war mortality rates (a VERY important number in arriving at the estimated number of excess deaths) that were significantly different from what his study found. In fact, his report neither noted or attempted to explain why it's pre-war mortality estimate was so markedly different. The John Hopkin's researchers in the first report said 5 per 1000 per year. Well it turns out that the UN and WHO, in very large studies conducted before the invasion, said 7-8 per 1000 per year. By the way, the Lancet had previously blessed those WHO and UN estimates as correct ... perhaps because at the time doing THAT was hurt the US governments image.

Now there are many more criticisms one can make about that first report. But let's move on to the second report ... the one claiming 655,000 excess deaths. That one has all the defects mentions above plus others.

For example, the second report claims that 92% of those interviewed in their study who claimed deaths in their families (of any kind) since the beginning of the war were able to provide death certificates to prove it when asked. So if the John Hopkin's study methodology is statistically valid, one would expect death certificates from about 92% of 655,000 deaths should be available if someone goes looking for them. That is over 600,000 death certificates. Of the total number of deaths claimed, the John Hopkins report said "601,027 were due to violent causes. Non-violent deaths rose above the pre-invasion level only in 2006." So according to John Hopkin's, most of the death certificates should relate to violent causes.

Now as far as I know, death certificates in Iraq are only issued by the hospitals and morgues. This is what the LATimes (not a friend of Bush or the war) seemed to indicate in June of 2006 when they reported (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-deathtoll25jun25,0,4970736.story?coll=la-home-headlines) that they made a comprehensive search for death certificates throughout Iraq. And you know what they found? Less than 50,000.

Here's what they reported. "The Times attempted to reach a comprehensive figure by obtaining statistics from the Baghdad morgue and the Health Ministry and checking those numbers against a sampling of local health departments for possible undercounts." The article went on to say "the Health Ministry gathers numbers from hospitals in the capital and the outlying provinces. If a victim of violence dies at a hospital or arrives dead, medical officials issue a death certificate. Relatives claim the body directly from the hospital and arrange for a speedy burial in keeping with Muslim beliefs. If the morgue receives a body — usually those deemed suspicious deaths — officials there issue the death certificate. Health Ministry officials said that because death certificates are issued and counted separately, the two data sets are not overlapping. The Baghdad morgue received 30,204 bodies from 2003 through mid-2006, while the Health Ministry said it had documented 18,933 deaths from "military clashes" and "terrorist attacks" from April 5, 2004, to June 1, 2006. Together, the toll reaches 49,137."

So here's the question. Where are the missing death certificates? About 500,000, if one subtracts out the non-violent deaths. For that matter, where are the missing bodies? Where is ANY hard proof (photographic, video, eyewitness reports by journalists, ANYTHING) to prove over 600,000 people have died from violent causes as claimed?

I'll tell you. Such proof doesn't exist because the John Hopkin's studies are BOGUS. It's the result of a group of researchers (some of whom have admitted they disliked Bush and the War) who hired people in Iraq (who they described as HATING Americans) to gather the data.

I think this reviewer of Robert's study (From http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/006694.php) summed it up best: "In contrast to the amiable persona Roberts projected to his sympathetic Chronicle interviewer, Roberts comes across here as committed to exposing the American government's moral culpability in invading Iraq. More than that, Roberts' contention that Americans are passionately hated by the Iraqis he met and worked with ought to raise a red flag. It was those same Iraqis, acting as interviewers and team managers, who recorded and conveyed the surveyed families' impressions of the identities of those who killed their close relatives."

The results are tainted because they were reviewed and published in a journal that not only lied about the first study (claiming it showed 100,000 CIVILIANS died in the first 18 months of the war) but whose editors admit they fast tracked the peer review process so that it could be published before an election and negatively affect the outcome against Bush and the GOP. The methodology was tainted by expecting the sunnis who bore the brunt of the invasion and who hate Americans (because we freed the rest of Iraq from their tyranny) to tell the truth about casualties. And the study is still being tainted by proponents who willfully hide all these facts every time they cite the numbers in order to promote their agenda.

In summary, I'd be very cautious about citing Les Roberts or the Lancet results to prove anything. You might end up only embarrassing yourself.

You have made me feel so much better. You have performed a public service, for which every American should feel grateful. The burden of 650G innocent Iraqi deaths has been lifted from our shoulders, to be replaced with the burden of only 50G or 60G innocent civilian deaths. It no longer matters that Bush launched an elective war of aggression, in the absence of any imminent critical threat to our national security. It no longer matters that Iraq had never attacked us and was not about to do so. It no longer matters that W's henchmen cooked the NIE to justify an illegal war. None of that metters, because 50G deaths don't count.

Second, would you be as upset if only 10 "innocent" deaths had resulted from toppling Saddam and making sure Iraq couldn't be used with as a terrorists safe haven? At what number would you draw the line between doing that being a good thing versus a bad thing?

Number has nothing to do with it. It's obvious by now, to anyone who is not a Bushbot, that the Administration lied about Iraq being a "terrorist haven", lied about "weapons of mass destruction", lied about any connection between Iraq and 9-11 and lied about just about everything else surrounding our ill- concieved and piss-poorly planned invasion of Iraq. It was a war that we launched "preemptively", based on a bullshit fictional "threat".

That's illegal. And in fact we (the US) are the ones who made it a crime when we actually stood on the side of the angels at Nuremburg! It was a "bad" thing from jump.

As for making sure Iraq couldn't be used as a safe haven, what the fuck do you think it is now? It is not only a safe haven for terriers, it's a training ground and an ammo dump, conveniently equipped with targets. There hasn't been a single good thing accomplished here.

Even the toppling of Saddam was, at best, a neutral acheivement. He was no threat to us, and had been a trusted and reliable ally of ours right up until the first Gulf War, when WE greenlighted his invasion of Kuwait. He would have remained an ally if we'd told him not to invade, because he wouldn't have done it. This is not to mention that he'd never have gotten past low-level apparatchik if our CIA hadn't backed him in his run for Iraqi leadership. Now that he's gone, what do we have in Iraq? We have an ineffectual puppet government that can do nothing, widespread death and misery, and we've given terriers all across the middle east another serious greivance to lay at our feet.

Iraq is the terrier's recruiting poster. Young Saudis are catching rides to Iraq just so they can take a shot at a real-live US GI.

So it's always been a bad thing, it never was a good thing; hell, it never even was a good IDEA. And any good that could have been done was fucked up by the presidiot and his dumbshit advisors.

Sure it does. Or are you telling us that you wouldn't risk one innocent life to save the lives of a hundred others?

It certainly was a terrorist haven. We know now that al-Qaeda was busy planning mass casualty attacks against the US and its allies from the safety of Iraq long before we invaded. The Jordan chemical bomb plot trial proved that. Those terrorists admitted to meeting with al-Zarqawi in Baghdad before the invasion to plot the attack ... an attack whose goal was to kill tens of thousands of Jordanians and everyone in the US embassy in Amman. Now I think a rational person calls Iraq a safe haven under those circumstances. Especially given that Iraq's government was aware those people were operating inside Iraq. And I think a rational person would consider that an attack involving a weapon of mass destruction.

We did find weapons of mass destruction that Saddam denied having. That binary sarin warhead that turned up as an IED proves it. And the ISG said they had a witness they deemed credible who said Saddam moved WMD related items to Syria in the months before the invasion. And other sources say that happened. It is a fact that at the time of the invasion Iraq was still working on banned long range delivery systems, which even the Iraqi who headed the program said he thought was for delivering WMD. It is a fact that the ISG said Iraq selectively sanitized files, computers and facilities thought by the ISG to be related to WMD. It is a fact that the reason this happened has never been explained. Given those fact, I don't think any rational person could claim the administration lied about Iraq being a threat in terms of violating an agreement not to pursue WMD and in terms of being a potential source of WMD to terrorists.

The apparent connection between the anthrax attack, Atta and an Iraqi intelligence agent named al-Ani has never been adequately explained.

Anything but. It has been a killing ground for thousands of al-Qaeda and thousands of their associates. Why just today it was announced that the #1 al-Qaeda in Iraq was wounded and his deputy killed. The truth is that because we invaded, al-Zarqawi was put on the run (and eventually killed), which probably is what kept him from overseeing and making sure the Jordan bomb plot was a success. And it certainly kept him from planning and launching another such plot.

I can think of one without even blinking. Saddam and his sons are dead. On top of that millions of Iraqis are now going to live a life where they can prosper instead of being under the thumb of the Sunnis and Saddam's regime.

Oh sure. A man who ordered a chemical attack on Israel during the first gulf war at a time when Israel wasn't even a combatant in that war was not a threat. A man who defied an agreement to not even pursue WMD but who continued to do so for over a decade was not a threat. A man who started TWO wars of aggression in one of the most vital areas of the world was not a threat. A man who when losing one ordered the torching of whole oil fields was not a threat. A man who committed genocide against his own countrymen, using WMD no less, was not a threat. A man who harbored terrorists who had attacked the US (such as one of the 1993 WTC bombers) was not a threat. A man who funded terrorists around the world was not a threat. A man who continued friendly contacts with al-Qaeda after 9/11 was not a threat. A man who APPLAUDED the destruction of the WTC towers was not a threat. Why is it I don't believe your assessment of him?

This is untrue. We did no such thing. Even Tariq Aziz, right hand of Saddam and a person who was present at the meeting where you folks claim Saddam was given a greenlight, said publically this notion is silly. He said Saddam was under no illusions. He knew invading Kuwait would mean war with the US.

And most of them are dying there. Better there, under conditions where we can apply the full weight of our military, then somewhere else where we can't.

Saddam wanted a secular Iraq, he did not want any competition with radical Islamic groups, and would have regarded them as a huge threat, but I suspect you already know that!

If they actually were in that country, and had he known about them being there he most likely would have had them executed.

A suspect in a foiled plot to detonate a chemical weapon in Jordan met beforehand in Iraq with fellow defendant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to discuss the planned attacks, according to a videotaped confession played in court yesterday (see GSN, June 23).

The tape shows defendant Azmi al-Jayousi confessing that he planned to carry out attacks in Jordan, the Associated Press reported.

“I met with Abu Musab in Baghdad, who told me that a man called al-Jubouri will be the contact man between me and Abu Musab,” said Jayousi, one of 13 suspects in an alleged plan to attack Jordanian intelligence agency headquarters in Amman.

Jayousi also admitted to agreeing to kill Lt. Col., Mahmoud Obeidat, a military prosecutor.

“Abu Musab sent me [$70,000] and weapons with the so-called Jubouri as well as detonators to kill the prosecutor with a telecommunications device if we don’t succeed in shooting him,” Jayousi said on the tape.

A second tape played in court showed how the defendants made the chemicals and explosives they intended to use against the intelligence service and other sites in Amman (Associated Press, June 29).

"Four surviving alleged terrorists were shown in videotaped statements. Their self-professed leader was identified as Azmi al-Jayyusi.

"In Herat (Afghanistan), I began training for Abu Musab," Jayyusi says in a translation published by the BBC. "The training included high-level explosives and poison courses. I then pledged allegiance to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and agreed to work for him without any discussion. After the fall of Afghanistan, I met al-Zarqawi once again in Iraq. "In Iraq, Abu Musab told me to go to Jordan along with Muwaffaq Udwan to prepare for a military operation in Jordan," said Jayyusi.

Once he was in Jordan, Zarqawi sent him money via couriers, said Jayyusi. "He also supplied me, through messengers, with forged passports, identity cards and car registrations and all that is necessary.""

AMMAN, Jordan — A Jordanian military court on Wednesday sentenced to death nine men, including Al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, for a plot to carry out a chemical attack against the kingdom.

Al-Zarqawi and three others received the death penalty in absentia. But the plot's alleged mastermind, Azmi al-Jayousi, and four co-defendants were in the courtroom when the judge handed down the sentence for the 2004 plot, which security officials foiled before it could be carried out.

"Bin Laden's organization is rising and we will be back!" the defendants shouted after the sentencing, referring to the Al Qaeda terror network led by Usama bin Laden.

The court sentenced two of the 13 defendants to prison terms of between one and three years, and acquitted another two defendants.

After the sentencing, the convicted men turned on one of the acquitted, a Syrian, and accused him of being an informer. They threatened to kill him, but they did not attack him in the dock.

The 13 men — Jordanian, Syrian and Palestinians — were charged with conspiring to attack various sites in Jordan by setting off a cloud of toxic chemicals that would have killed thousands of people, according to prosecution estimates.

The prosecution told the court that al-Zarqawi sent more than $118,000 to buy two vehicles which the plotters were to use in the attack. Suicide bombers were to drive the vehicles, loaded with explosives and chemicals, into the grounds of the General Intelligence Department in Amman and detonate them, prosecutors said.

The plot also planned to attack the U.S. Embassy, the prime minister's office, and various intelligence and military court officials, the indictment said.

The indictment said that when investigators conducted an experiment with small amounts of the chemicals found with the defendants, it produced "a strong explosion and a poison cloud that spread over an area of 500 square meters (yards)."

From the geographical data that mastermind al-Jayousi had collected, it appeared he aimed to kill thousands of people in the chemical attack, the indictment said.

Eight of the defendants were accused of belonging to a previously unknown group, "Kata'eb al-Tawhid" or Battalions of Monotheism, which security officials say is headed by al-Zarqawi and linked to Al Qaeda.

The eight were also charged with conspiring to commit acts of terrorism and possession and manufacture of explosives.

Previously, Jordan's military courts have condemned al-Zarqawi to death in absentia for the 2002 assassination of U.S. diplomat Lawrence Foley in Amman and for a failed suicide attack on the Jordanian-Iraqi border in 2004.

AMMAN, Jordan - Al-Qaida plotted bombings and poison gas attacks against the U.S. Embassy and other targets in Jordan, two conspirators said in a confession aired Monday on Jordanian state television.

Azmi al-Jayousi, identified as the head of the Jordanian cell of al-Qaida, appeared Monday in a 20-minute taped program and described meeting Jordanian militant Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi in neighboring Iraq to plan the foiled plot.

A commentator said the plotters wanted to kill “80,000” Jordanians and had targeted the prime minister’s office, intelligence headquarters and the U.S. Embassy.

Another Jordanian suspect, car mechanic Hussein Sharif Hussein, was shown saying al-Jayousi asked him to buy vehicles and modify them so that they could crash through gates and walls.

U.S. officials have offered a $10 million reward for al-Zarqawi’s capture, saying he is a close associate of al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden and is trying to build a network of foreign militants in neighboring Iraq to work on al-Qaida’s behalf. His whereabouts are unknown.

“I have pledged loyalty to Abu-Musab to fully be obedient and listen to him without discussion,” al-Jayousi said in the Jordanian television segment. He said he first met al-Zarqawi in Afghanistan, where al-Jayousi said he studied explosives, “before Afghanistan fell.” He said he later met al-Zarqawi in Iraq, but was not specific about when.

The videotape also showed still photographs of al-Jayousi and nine other suspects. The commentator said four of those pictured had been killed in clashes with security forces.

Al-Jayousi said he received about $170,000 from al-Zarqawi to finance the plot and used part of it to buy 20 tons of chemicals. He did not identify the chemicals, but said they “were enough for all the operations in the Jordanian arena.”

Images of what the commentator said were vans filled with blue jugs of chemical explosives were included in the broadcast.

Hussein, the car mechanic, said he met al-Jayousi in 1999 but did not clearly say when the terror plans were laid out.

The bearded Hussein, looking anxious, said al-Jayousi told him the aim was “carrying out the first suicide attack to be launched by al-Qaida using chemicals” and “striking at Jordan, its Hashemite (royal family) and launching war on the Crusaders and nonbelievers.

Officials said they had arrested the suspects in two raids in late March and early April. Last week, officials said four other terror suspects believed linked to the same conspiracy were killed in a shootout with police in Amman.

Government officials have said the suspects plotted to detonate a powerful bomb targeting Jordan’s secret service and use poison gas against the prime minister’s office, the U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic missions. Had the bomb exploded, it could have killed at least 20,000 people and wrecked buildings within a half-mile radius, the officials have said.

Airing suspects’ confessions before their trial is unusual in Jordan. In 1998, six men accused of affiliation with a militant group confessed on television to planting a bomb that exploded outside an Amman hotel. Five years later, a court found them innocent.

The unusual move may be an attempt to answer critics who claim the government has exaggerated the terror danger to justify tightening security.

Officials in Jordan, a moderate Arab nation with close ties to the United States and a peace treaty with Israel, say the kingdom has been repeatedly targeted by al-Qaida and other militant groups.

AMMAN, Jordan — Jordan's military prosecutor indicted Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, one of the most wanted insurgents in Iraq, and 12 other alleged Muslim militants Sunday for an alleged Al Qaeda linked plot to attack the U.S. Embassy in Amman and Jordanian government targets with chemical and conventional weapons, government officials said.

Lt. Col. Mahmoud Obeidat summoned nine of the 13 terror suspects who are already in custody and read them the charges in the indictment, the officials told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.

Four suspects, including al-Zarqawi, are still at large and will be tried in absentia, the officials said. The trial was expected to begin in early to mid November.

Al-Zarqawi and his Tawhid and Jihad group are blamed for a string of bombings and other attacks in Iraq and kidnappings and slayings of foreign hostages, including three Americans who were beheaded.

Security officials have said the militants were plotting to attack the Jordanian prime minister's office, the secret service agency, the U.S. in Jordan and other sites. Security officials and some of the detainees, in televised confessions, have said the plot was linked to Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network.

Azmi al-Jayousi, the alleged mastermind of the cell who was captured in April, has confessed to military prosecutors the group was planning a chemical attack, the officials said.

The military court is expected to grant a 10-day grace period this week for the four fugitives to surrender — a process which precedes the opening of the trial. In Jordan, charges become formal when read aloud at the opening of the trial.

The charges on seven counts include conspiring to commit terror attacks in Jordan, possessing and manufacturing explosive material and affiliation with a banned group, the officials said.

The group in question has been identified as Kata'eb al-Tawhid, Arabic for the Battalions of Monotheism, a previously unknown cell said to be linked to Al Qaeda.

Jordan first announced in April it had foiled the terrorist plot blamed on al-Zarqawi. On April 20, four additional suspects were killed in a police shootout and most members of the Jordanian cell were arrested.

Jordanian authorities said then the suspects had plotted to use chemicals and explosives to blow up vital institutions, including Jordan's intelligence department — an attack that could have killed thousands.

Al-Jayousi, the alleged mastermind, and some other detained suspects had said in televised confessions the plot was hatched and financed by al-Zarqawi.

In an audiotape posted on the Internet in May, a man who identified himself as al-Zarqawi acknowledged his group was behind the plot in Jordan but he denied it involved chemical weapons.

U.S. officials have offered a $25 million reward for al-Zarqawi's capture. He is suspected in about a dozen high-profile attacks in Iraq, including last year's bombing of the U.N. headquarters in Baghdad. Moroccan authorities believe he may have helped guide the Madrid train bombings.

His group is believed to be behind the killings and beheadings of foreign hostages in Iraq including three Americans. U.S. and Jordanian authorities say he funded the Oct. 2002 assassination of a U.S. diplomat in Jordan.

Jordan, a key Arab ally of the United States and a peace partner to Israel, has been targeted by Al Qaeda and other terrorists. Twenty-two Islamic extremists were convicted of plotting to attack U.S. and Israeli tourists during the kingdom's millennium celebrations.

The trial of Iraq's most wanted man, the fugitive Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and 12 other people accused of plotting a chemical attack in Jordan was postponed for the second week in a row after defence lawyers failed to show up.

The case was adjourned to December 29 because court-appointed lawyers for four of nine defendants, including alleged ringleader Azmi Jayussi, did not attend the hearing, judicial sources told AFP.

The trial opened December 15 but was disrupted and adjourned when Jayussi and his co-defendants refused to address the court in protest at their detention conditions.

Eight of the suspects are behind bars, one is out on bail while Zarqawi -- a Jordanian-born Islamist who has a 25-million-dollar US bounty on his head for a string of attacks in Iraq -- and two others are on the run. Prosecutor Mahmud Obeidat levelled seven charges against the group in October, including conspiracy to commit terror attacks in Jordan , making explosives and possession of weapons.

The group is specifically accused of plotting, on Zarqawi's orders, an attack on the intelligence agency using trucks loaded with 20 tonnes of chemicals that could have killed 80,000 people and injured 160,000 others.

The prosecution said the attack planned for west Amman was part of a larger conspiracy, including hits on the prime minister's office as well as the US embassy in Amman. The charge sheet released in October did not mention these two targets.

The defendants are also accused of belonging to an illegal organisation named as Kataeh al-Tawhid (Unification Brigades) and of links to Zarqawi. The 13 men, including three Syrian nationals one of whom is on the run, face the death penalty if convicted.

Zarqawi was sentenced to death by the state security court in April for the October 2002 murder of a US diplomat in Amman.

He is also charged in another court case that opened earlier this month in which he and another Jordanian suspect are accused of plotting to attack the Jordanian embassy in Iraq and unspecified US targets there.

Nine men being tried in Jordan for allegedly plotting a foiled chemical attack asked yesterday to be put to death rather than let the trial continue, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Dec. 15, 2004).

“God, and no one else, is our master. We wish to be executed,” the defendants shouted in court, according to AFP.

“The verdict is ready, so why put us on trial,” said the suspects, who could be sentenced to death if convicted of planning to attack the Jordanian intelligence agency with 20 tons of chemicals that could have killed up to 80,000 people.

The men are suspected of belonging to the outlawed Kataeb al-Tawhid (“Unification Brigades”) group and of having connections to terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, AFP reported.

All nine denied the charges after they were read aloud in court, according to AFP (Agence France-Presse/Khaleej Times, Feb. 23).

Suspects in Jordan Chemical Plot Had Instructions for Attack, Witnesses Say at Trial

Suspects in a planned chemical weapons attack in Jordan possessed instructions on preparing germ and conventional weapons, witnesses said yesterday at the trial of the alleged plotters (see GSN, Feb. 24).

Nine of the 13 suspects are in custody, while Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and three others are being tried in absentia, the Associated Press reported. Targets of the foiled attack have been reported to include the Jordanian intelligence agency and the U.S. Embassy in Amman.

Police officers found “a dossier in Arabic containing detailed steps on manufacturing explosives and bacteriological poisons” at a safe house in Amman, said Sgt. Mohammed al-Omari.

The house also contained handwritten instructions on military training and poisons. Information on weapons and military tactics were kept on compact discs and computers, AP reported.

“There was a file headlined ‘the culture of sabotage,’ which outlined ways to destroy buildings, bridges, railways, and telephone and electricity networks, and how to dismantle security barriers, attack airports, carry out assassination and spread epidemics, like typhoid and malaria,” said Lt. Muthana al-Qatan, an intelligence agency computer technician. He acknowledged that the information might have come straight from the Internet (Jamal Halaby, Associated Press, April 20).

Al-Qaeda Planned Chemical Attack on U.S. Naval Base in Spain, Terror Cell Member Says

The trial of 13 people suspected of plotting a chemical attack last year in Jordan was halted yesterday following an angry outburst by the defendants that included a death threat and thrown shoes, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 21).

Nine suspects are in custody, while Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and three others are being tried in absentia for foiled strikes on sites believed to include the U.S. Embassy in Amman and the Jordanian intelligence agency.

Lead suspect Azmi al-Jayousi became enraged yesterday during testimony from a forensic doctor on the wounds suffered by four additional plotters killed in a shootout with police in April 2004.

Jayousi threw his slippers at lead judge Col. Fawaz Buqour, and then told the three-judge panel “Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi will chop off your heads and stuff it up your mouths, you God’s enemies.”

“The blood of our brothers will not go wasted,” defendant Ahmad Samir yelled as the trial resumed. Samir also told military prosecutor Lt. Col. Mahmoud Obeidat to, “Await death … for you are God’s enemy.”

Other defendants yelled or spoke from the Koran. All subsequently turned their back on the judges, kneeled and began to pray, AP reported.

Al-Jayousi and two other defendants were removed from the courtroom. That failed to bring order, so Buqour adjourned the trial. It was not immediately known when the case would resume (Jamal Halaby, Associated Press, May 5).

The New York Times reports today that before his death, top al Qaeda terrorist Abu Musab al Zarqawi trained about 300 foreign fighters in Iraq and sent them back to their home countries, where they awaited orders to carry out strikes.

But the paper makes no mention of Zarqawi's most ambitious foreign attack plot, which nearly succeeded two years ago: a weapons of mass destruction strike that intelligence officials estimated would have killed 20,000.

The death toll planned by Zarqawi would have far exceeded the destruction wrought by Osama bin Laden on Sept. 11.

The April 2004 attack, which was all but ignored by the Western press, was foiled at the last minute when Jordanian officials intercepted a convoy of three vehicles near the Syrian border.

It's cargo: 23,000 gallons of chemicals, poison gas and explosives. The target: The U.S. embassy in Amman along with the headquarters of Jordan's Intelligence service.

The Mideast bureau of the Associated Press reported at the time that Jordanian officials said Zarqawi's crew was planning to use to "a chemical bomb that would have killed as many as 20,000 people and caused large-scale destruction within a half-mile radius."

"The terror cell was also apparently planning to carry out simultaneous poison gas attacks against foreign diplomatic missions, including the heavily fortified U.S. Embassy in Amman, vital Jordanian public establishments like the prime minister's office and unspecified civilian targets," the wire service said.

Jordan's King Abdullah II confirmed the details of the attack, and publicly thanked his intelligence chief, Gen. Saad Kheir, saying that the arrests of Zarqawi's terrorists had "saved thousands of lives."

Had the plot gone forward, Abdullah said, Jordan would have seen "a crime that would have been unprecedented in the country in terms of the size of explosives mounted on the vehicles and the methods of carrying out the attacks or the civilian locations chosen."

In confessions later broadcast on ABC's "Nightline," one of the plotters revealed that he began training for the mission in 2001 in Afghanistan.

"After the fall of Afghanistan, I met Zarqawi again in Iraq," the al Qaeda operative said.

Jaiousi admits meeting with Zarqawi in Baghdad, receiving instructions for attacks

Amman - The main defendant in the case of nine men standing trial for plotting the first chemical attack in the Kingdom, on Wednesday said he met with Abu Mussab Zarqawi in Baghdad to prepare for the alleged attacks.

In a videotape confession screened during the trial at the State Security Court (SSC) yesterday, Azmi Jaiousi said he met with Zarqawi and two other men in Iraq. "Zarqawi told me there would be military operations in Jordan soon and we needed to prepare for them... he gave me around $50,000, weapons, explosive devices and instructions to launch attacks. Our first target was State Prosecutor Mahmoud Obeidat," Jaiousi was quoted as saying in the videotape.

A second target was a General Intelligence Department (GID) officer who had blue eyes and a white Mercedes, he added. Jaiousi said he infiltrated into the Kingdom from Iraq in February 2002, hidden in a truck, and later met up with the rest of the defendants. Jaiousi also reenacted how he bought chemical substances, electric and electronic equipment and lab devices from shops in the downtown area.

The videotape also showed him manufacturing explosives and transporting empty jerry cans into trucks with defendants Husni Sharif and Ahmad Samir. The prosecution is charging that the defendants intended to use these deadly chemical substances in an attack on the GID headquarters. An explosives expert testified recently that if the chemical substances had been mixed with explosives they would have caused burns, suffocation and neurological paralysis.

During the screening of the video, the defendants claimed that the prosecution denied them the right of appointing lawyers to be present during the interrogations. Obeidat refuted their claims saying he had informed them of their right for an attorney, but they "turned down his offer." During the two-hour session, Obeidat rested his case opening the way for the defence team to present their evidence.

The defence lawyers asked the court for more time to meet with their clients and prepare the defence statements. The tribunal agreed and adjourned the session until next week. The nine men, part of a group of 13 suspects including Zarqawi, are also charged with possessing and manufacturing explosives with illicit intent, and possessing an automatic weapon with the intention of using it illegally. Jaiousi appeared on Jordan Television shortly after his arrest and described how he and other group members had bought and manufactured chemical explosives under the guidance and support of Zarqawi."

The central rationale for the invasion of Iraq was not simply the threat posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction — it was the nexus between terrorists, their state sponsors, and WMDs. The anthrax attacks that took place in this country in the fall of 2001 could be an example; they were clearly conducted by terrorists, and involved biological weapons. The perpetrators have not been found. Letters accompanying the attacks stated, "Death to America. Death to Israel. Allah is Great." Nevertheless, investigations have focused on domestic sources since the anthrax was in some cases highly sophisticated and weaponized. The fact that the Kay report mentioned Iraqi anthrax-production capabilities could point in another direction, if the "domestic perp" premise can be overcome. (It is comparable to the premise that the D.C. sniper had to be a disgruntled, white, right-wing Christian — a bad working assumption that ignored the obvious.)

The planned al Qaeda attack in Amman that was disrupted by Jordanian security forces is another example of the nexus in action, and a cautionary tale on the complexity of the war on terrorism. This was not the first time al Qaeda has targeted Jordan — their embassy in Iraq was attacked last August and the terrorists have been vocal in their condemnations of the Jordanian government for its cooperation with the United States in the war effort. The plan was to mount suicide attacks on their intelligence headquarters, the prime minister's office, and the U.S. embassy with a truck carrying 20 tons of chemical explosives. The bombing would have raised a chemical cloud for a mile radius and killed an estimated 80,000 people, in a country of 5.4 million. (An attack of that proportion in this country would kill 4.3 million.)

Jordanian TV carried an interview with captured members of the attack teams, including the leader of the group, a Jordanian named Azmi al-Jayyusi, a long-time member of al Qaeda. He trained in Osama bin Laden camps in Herat, Afghanistan prior to the fall of the Taliban, under Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who currently is orchestrating al Qaeda attacks against Coalition forces in Iraq. He was given "high level courses in explosives and poisons." After Afghanistan was liberated, Zarqawi ordered al-Jayyusi to Iraq — apparently before Operation Iraqi Freedom. He later infiltrated Jordan with others to plan their attack. Safe houses were procured by a Syrian who worked with Zarqawi. The team began to procure chemicals, they said through companies that used them for other purposes. Al-Jayyusi weaponized the chemicals himself, at small labs in secure warehouses. Money, trucks, forged passports, I.D. cards, and car registrations all came by courier through Syria. So did four of the ten members of the attack teams, three of whom chose to fight to the death with Jordanian security forces.

Zarqawi, who claimed credit for having ordered the attack, affirmed the intent to undertake the bombing, but denied that there were chemical weapons involved, saying that the confessions were the result of torture. Another report from Jordan claimed that the chemicals, like the other supplies, came from Syria. It brought to mind the stories that were circulating in the press over a year ago that Iraqi WMDs were being transported in large numbers to Syria. The Iraq-Syrian border is difficult enough to seal now; at the time it was wide open. It would be an interesting development if 20 of the 1,000 tons of chemical weapons that the Blix report found unaccounted for in Iraq turned up in Jordan.

The day after the video confessions aired, explosions hit Damascus. A group of four gunmen blew up a parked car in front of the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force building, which had been unused for several years and was then occupied by two homeless families. The men then began shooting randomly and throwing hand grenades, until security forces arrived and killed several of them. Hundreds of demonstrators then materialized, hoisting oversize pictures of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and chanting something about solidarity.

The finding is contained in a 2005 CIA report released by the Senate's Intelligence Committee on Friday.

US President George W Bush has said that the presence of late al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq before the war was evidence of a link.

They say the revelation undermines the basis on which the US went to war in Iraq.

The BBC's Justin Webb in Washington says that the US president has again and again tried to connect the war, which most Americans think was a mistake, with the so-called war on terror, which has the support of the nation.

The report comes as Mr Bush makes a series of speeches on the "war on terror" to coincide with the fifth anniversary of the 11 September attacks.

Requests rejected

The report is the second part of the committee's analysis of pre-war intelligence. The first dealt with CIA failings in its assessment of Iraq's weapons programme.

Saddam Hussein was distrustful of al-Qaeda and viewed Islamic extremists as a threat to his regime, refusing all requests from al-Qaeda to provide material or operational support,
Senate report Most computers will open PDF documents automatically, but you may need to download Adobe Acrobat Reader

The committee concluded that the CIA had evidence of several instances of contacts between the Iraqi authorities and al-Qaeda throughout the 1990s but that these did not add up to a formal relationship.

It added that the government "did not have a relationship, harbour or turn a blind eye toward Zarqawi and his associates".

It said that Iraq and al-Qaeda were ideologically poles apart.

"Saddam Hussein was distrustful of al-Qaeda and viewed Islamic extremists as a threat to his regime, refusing all requests from al-Qaeda to provide material or operational support," it said.

The Senate report added that the Iraqi regime had repeatedly rejected al-Qaeda requests for meetings.

It also deals with the role played by inaccurate information supplied by Iraqi opposition groups in the run-up to the war.