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Title: Iraq's death toll is far worse than our leaders admit
Source:
The Independent
URL Source: http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/article/118356
Published: Feb 14, 2007
Author: Les Roberts
Post Date: 2007-02-14 09:58:38 by leveller
Keywords: None
Views: 31584
Comments: 457
The US and Britain have triggered an episode more deadly than the Rwandan genocide 14 February 2007 On both sides of the Atlantic, a process of spinning science is preventing a serious discussion about the state of affairs in Iraq. The government in Iraq claimed last month that since the 2003 invasion between 40,000 and 50,000 violent deaths have occurred. Few have pointed out the absurdity of this statement. There are three ways we know it is a gross underestimate. First, if it were true, including suicides, South Africa, Colombia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia have experienced higher violent death rates than Iraq over the past four years. If true, many North and South American cities and Sub-Saharan Africa have had a similar murder rate to that claimed in Iraq. For those of us who have been in Iraq, the suggestion that New Orleans is more violent seems simply ridiculous. Secondly, there have to be at least 120,000 and probably 140,000 deaths per year from natural causes in a country with the population of Iraq. The numerous stories we hear about overflowing morgues, the need for new cemeteries and new body collection brigades are not consistent with a 10 per cent rise in death rate above the baseline. And finally, there was a study, peer-reviewed and published in The Lancet, Europe's most prestigious medical journal, which put the death toll at 650,000 as of last July. The study, which I co-authored, was done by the standard cluster approach used by the UN to estimate mortality in dozens of countries each year. While the findings are imprecise, the lower range of possibilities suggested that the Iraq government was at least downplaying the number of dead by a factor of 10. There are several reasons why the governments involved in this conflict have been able to confuse the issue of Iraqi deaths. Our Lancet report involved sampling and statistical analysis, which is rather dry reading. Media reports always miss most deaths in times of war, so the estimate by the media-based monitoring system, http://Iraqbodycount.org (IBC) roughly corresponds with the Iraq government's figures. Repeated evaluations of deaths identified from sources independent of the press and the Ministry of Health show the IBC listing to be less than 10 per cent complete, but because it matches the reports of the governments involved, it is easily referenced. Several other estimates have placed the death toll far higher than the Iraqi government estimates, but those have received less press attention. When in 2005, a UN survey reported that 90 per cent of violent attacks in Scotland were not recorded by the police, no one, not even the police, disputed this finding. Representative surveys are the next best thing to a census for counting deaths, and nowhere but Iraq have partial tallies from morgues and hospitals been given such credence when representative survey results are available. The Pentagon will not release information about deaths induced or amounts of weaponry used in Iraq. On 9 January of this year, the embedded Fox News reporter Brit Hume went along for an air attack, and we learned that at least 25 targets were bombed that day with almost no reports of the damage appearing in the press. Saddam Hussein's surveillance network, which only captured one third of all deaths before the invasion, has certainly deteriorated even further. During last July, there were numerous televised clashes in Anbar, yet the system recorded exactly zero violent deaths from the province. The last Minister of Health to honestly assess the surveillance network, Dr Ala'din Alwan, admitted that it was not reporting from most of the country by August 2004. He was sacked months later after, among other things, reports appeared based on the limited government data suggesting that most violent deaths were associated with coalition forces. The consequences of downplaying the number of deaths in Iraq are profound for both the UK and the US. How can the Americans have a surge of troops to secure the population and promise success when the coalition cannot measure the level of security to within a factor of 10? How can the US and Britain pretend they understand the level of resentment in Iraq if they are not sure if, on average, one in 80 families have lost a household member, or one in seven, as our study suggests? If these two countries have triggered an episode more deadly than the Rwandan genocide, and have actively worked to mask this fact, how will they credibly be able to criticise Sudan or Zimbabwe or the next government that kills thousands of its own people? For longer than the US has been a nation, Britain has pushed us at our worst of moments to do the right thing. That time has come again with regard to Iraq. It is wrong to be the junior partner in an endeavour rigged to deny the next death induced, and to have spokespeople effectively respond to that death with disinterest and denial. Our nations' leaders are collectively expressing belligerence at a time when the populace knows they should be expressing contrition. If that cannot be corrected, Britain should end its role in this deteriorating misadventure. It is unlikely that any historians will record the occupation of Iraq in a favourable light. Britain followed the Americans into this débâcle. Wouldn't it be better to let history record that Britain led them out? The writer is an Associate Professor at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article2268067.ece
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#326. To: BeAChooser (#323)
BAC, if you are going to quote obscure, meaningless blogs in support of your argumets, why don't you just write the things yourself? Pay $14.99 per month, get a blog and tailor it to exactly what you need. No one will buy the shit you quote from it, but no one buys the shit you quote from these pathetic sources either. But what you do quote will be more on point.
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Maybe you could delete some of Chooser's spam above. Nobody is going to read it and it makes the thread hard to follow.
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"This war has been privatized, to a great extent, more than any other war in history." This isn't about WMDs in Iraq or any real threat by that country, as all wars have been (WAR IS A RACKET). It's about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. Watch this---> IRAQ FOR SALE
Hey Beachy, if all you have to do is post a link from a kook one man blog to make something a reality, how about if I wrote a blog saying I had a million bucks in my checking account and then posted it here? Would that work?
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I've pondered this before, are the paid shills paid by the post or by the hour?
Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush BAC posts by the "opportunity." If he thinks he can get a response - he calls in his team of superiors.
The entire Bush Cabal, including Rove's minions, are all opportunists. Just like Hitler, and every other tyrant in history.
Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush So BAC, is there a 12 Step Program or something like that where OC Sociopaths such as yourself can hang out and get feedback? If so, you should bring this thread up in a meeting and let them tell you how you blew it. You won't see it yourself as your very obvious mental defect prevents this. That, by the way, is the crux of the problem you face.
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Unfortunately, the elements behind the Bush Cabal learned their lessons from Hitler. BUT - as with Hitler, no one is listening to the generals. The "generals" may be take a few notes on Hitler's failures, also. We'll see.
that's true
Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush No they haven't. I dare you. QUOTE exactly what Bush (or any administration official) said in this so-called proof by other posters. For some reason, none of those who are *helping* you on this matter seem willing to do that. ROTFLOL! You really do see all the posters on this forum as so beneath you, don't you. You see all of us as cookie-cutters of one another, all being exceptionally stupid and dull, objectifying all of us. That attitude and the shallow thinking that goes along with it is what's going to bring down the neocons in the end (and probably the rest of us because of them, gee thanks), they tend to underestimate the abilities of those they decide to make their enemies. It's like a blind spot they have, one which for instance does not keep them from repeating mistakes they should have learned from history, like invading Afganistan, as no one will be able to take down those people. But to people like you, all Others are stupid and insignificant so in your minds' they should be easy to conquer, and as usual it just doesn't turn out that way. I won't knit pick with you, it's impossible because my nature is not dishonest enough for me to be able to stoop to your level playing word games. You know something was said to the American people to scare them into thinking that Saddam had the capability to attack within 45 minutes and cause great calamity to our country. That message was loud and clear and indeed has been proven by those posters "helping" me.
You've posted links to blogs. Why is it that you have no links to professional, peer reviewed research? Because it's not out there. Man this left wing conspriracy is vast! It emcompasses academia throughout the whole world! I would no more accept blog information as a "source" than you would accept it as a source in the WTC debate. You can post as many links critical of the Lancet study as you like. If I cared to take the time, I'm sure I could find just as many blogs that supported the study. However, Blogs are not credible sources, period, so it doesn't matter. They are the opinions of people who may or may not know what they are speaking of. However, if they did know what they were talking about, then why haven't they presented their information for peer review? The Bush administration would jump all over it in order to prove the inaccuracy of the Lancet study. The questions asked and information presented in your blogs may be legitimate. However, they may also be based on flawed premises, logic, or information. Then again, they could just be strawman arguments made to confuse and muddy the waters by the Bush admin internet propaganda team. There may be legitimate and perfectly rational reasons for the methodology the researchers used in their study.I am not an epidemiologist and to my knowldege, neither are you. IMO it is unreasonable to believe that a study so flawed (as you contend) would be allowed to stand on such an important topic by those within that particular field. Yet it has been allowed to stand. There is a reason for this, and while you may believe that reason is due to liberalism and/or anti-war sentiment, I do not. You're not proving anything to anyone because you are not posting anything serious. You are posting opinion pieces that prove nothing. However, you misunderstand me and my attitude on the study. I do not take it as gospel. As the saying goes, statistics lie and liars use statistics. I'm only pointing out that there are not any reputable studies backing up your assertions that the study was inaccurate and/or politically driven. Also, for those interested, in October 2006, Johns Hopkins reaffirmed the original study: "Updated Iraq Survey Affirms Earlier Mortality Estimates. Mortality Trends Comparable to Estimates by Those Using Other Counting Methods http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2006/burnham_iraq_2006.html I've gotta run. It's Saturday and I have family stuff to do.
FOX news is not the left. And you know that Bush did indeed make Iraq out to be a threat therefore needed to be invaded. You are really stretching it now.
Oh yeah, before I go. The John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is the number 1 ranked school of Public Health in the world. I find it hard to believe that they would risk this reputation in order to score political points and/or press an anti-war agenda.
It's a disinformation tactic to phase-shift issues by saturating the environment with details. The number was horrible - and an American War Crime - there's the boottom line. BAC tries to spam-slam the issue. With rare exception, debating him is the epitome of wasted time. Go to the 'benchmark' and leave it there. "The lowest number is deplorable; and a War Crime."
More projection, the NeoCommie/ZioNazis are very good at projection. They don't know what to do with people who have not been bought/tortured/bribed/threatened/blackmailed. Real Patriots scare them.
Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush Strange. That doesn't mention missiles or using them to hit the US from Iraq. How foolish of me to assume that Bush meant a missile attack. Once again, BAC, your perspicacity has unearthed a subtlety that had heretofore escaped me. You and George W Bush really are masters of nuance. Here are some of the possible alternatives to missile attack that he could have intended to imply: "And according to the British government, the Iraqi regime could launch a biological or chemical attack [by canoe][by FedEx][by hot air balloon] [by carrier pigeon] in as little as 45 minutes after the order were given."
BAC is quite expert at splitting the hairs of language. If he has his way, there's no reading between the proverbial lines. On ElPee, that was normally accompanied with a "liar" label.
************ Iraqi Death Survey Part VI The effects of migration on the extrapolated numbers The data used to determine the number of clusters per Governorate, as well as the probability of a particular Administrative Region's selection within the Governorate, and to extrapolate to the final 600,000+ figure come from 2004 estimates of Iraqi population. There are several things to think about here. First of all, how accurate are 2004 population estimates likely to be, to begin with? Census data from the Saddam era has every reason to be suspect, and in so far as the 2004 estimates base calculations on pre-2003 census data, they are likely to be flawed. Moreover, independent estimates made in 2004 are likely to suffer from many of the same uncertainties present in this study, namely logistical difficulties in conducting surveys, imprecise administrative records and the like. There's simply no way to know how good these 2004 estimates are, and every reason to believe that they are rough estimates, at best. Be that as it may, and assuming for the moment that they are accurate, what effects do massive displacement since that time have on the extrapolated numbers? According to official reports , over 180,000 internally displaced refugees were reported just between the months of February and June of 2006. Undoubtedly those not registering pushes the number much higher. As I pointed out below, the survey methodology means that these displaced refugees had very little chance of being surveyed. But in addition to that, their migration is sure to skew the analysis of the data. The authors acknowledge as much in their paper: "The population data used for cluster selection were at least 2 years old, and if populations subsequently migrated from areas of high mortality to those with low mortality, the sample might have over-represented the high-mortality areas." Well, not just over-represented in sampling, but also over-estimated in projections. In addition, of course, emigration from Iraq entirely would cause the estimates to be overstated by a corresponding amount (if the population were only 22.5 million, rather than 25 million, for example, then the true extrapolated estimate would have to be revised downward by 10%) The authors, however, also make this very misleading statement about internal migration: "internal population movement would be less likely to affect results appreciably [than emigration from Iraq.]" Perhaps less likely, but the effect could be considerable: Consider the following simplified (and exaggerated) example: Suppose there are 2 regions, each with population = 1 million in 2004, and suppose that, from 2004 to 2006 one of the regions is subjected to extreme violence, while the other is not. Suppose that this causes 50% of the population (500,000) to move from the region of extreme violence to the region without. Now, suppose a survey is done in the two regions, where we find that the violent death toll in the war-torn region is 10 per 1000, while in the more peaceful region it is 2 per 1000 (in the latest 1 year period.) Assuming that the surveys are accurate, we would see that: Actual deaths in war-torn region: 10 per 1000 x 500,000 = 5,000 Extrapolated deaths in war-torn region: 10 per 1000 x 1,000,000 = 10,000 Actual deaths in more peaceful region: 2 per 1000 x 1,500,000 = 3,000 Extrapolated deaths in more peaceful region: 2 per 1000 x 1,000,000 = 2,000 Total actual deaths: 8,000 Total extrapolated deaths: 12,000 Difference: 4000 deaths or an over-estimate of 50%. Now, the true changes from 2004 to 2006 are liable to be far less than the 50% in the example. However, there is also the multiplier effect of overestimation in sampling combined with overestimation in extrapolation: Suppose that a city had a population of 50,000 in 2004, but due to a flare-up of violence, half the people left the city by 2006 (this is NOT at all unlikely, there are reports of entire cities becoming ghost towns overnight, due to the actions of the various militias and insurgent groups, see, for example, Fallujah.) Even though its actual 2006 population was 25,000, it would have twice the likelihood that it should have of being selected, based on its current population. And, given that it had suffered this tremendous out-migration, it would be far likelier to be in a very violent area, contributing higher than representative numbers, which in turn get multiplied by a higher than correct factor. On the other hand, if it were in a very violent area, it's quite possible that the survey teams would simply have decided that it was too risky to get there, and selected, at their whim, another, safer place (which, again, takes this survey completely out of the realm of statistical analysis, without doing a psychoanalysis of the survey teams, and attempting to massage the data in some way to compensate for their selection biases.) Again, the purpose of these analyses is not to show that the actual numbers are higher or lower than the survey's estimates, but rather to analyze the many flaws in both the methodology and interpretation of the survey which may lead it to be not especially meaningful. Update: BBC has more on Iraqi displacement estimates here. ************
********** Iraqi Death Survey, Final I had several more posts prepared, but why bother, when the Iraq Body Count website has done a much better, more thorough job than I could: http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php Thanks to all who looked over my material. Notropis ************************
So lemme see.. it's your contention that the number of civilian deaths are being inflated ? What is your position regarding the deaths of soldiers and mercenaries..why are the casuality numbers for them not being reported?
Yawn. BAC, you ridiculous, dishonest, sociopathic moron, call me when you have a legitimate source for the pile of -- UTTERLY UNSUPPORTED SHIT -- you have been spewing for the past two days. Your unsupported word on the subject is nullity. If fact it's worse than nullity because you got busted for posting fake links last night - look on the thread above. Given that, it's probably more correct to say that your unsupported word is the word of a failed and transparent would be bullshit artist. Don't waste my time with your kook blogs and five year old NewsMax articles. And don't waste my time if your mental defect prevents you from being honest - which I truely suspect is the case. Take me off your ping list. I haven't got time for the mentally ill who can't even see the objection to their silly shit, much less respond to it. In closing, the lone kook blog you cite in support in your nutty spew above isn't a source. It's either a joke or a deliberate attempt to mislead.
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"John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is the number 1 ranked school of Public Health in the world" - excellent point that bears being repeated - and its methodology for ascertaining mortality and disease figures in populations has been used in previous wars. From the updated John Hopkins report: "The mortality survey used well-established and scientifically proven methods for measuring mortality and disease in populations. These same survey methods were used to measure mortality during conflicts in the Congo, Kosovo, Sudan and other regions." For some people, the John Hopkins methodology is acceptable most of the time except when the aggressor in the war, in which mortality figures are being calculated, is our government.
Excuse me, it wasn't a single ridiculous and partisan kook blog you were relying upon to support your bullshit, it was two ridiculous and partisan kook blogs. Sorry. My mistake. But you everything I said above still holds. Don't bother me with your silly unsupported crap.
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just wanted you guys to see the photo of BAC that has now surfaced on the internet and is being circulated. BAC is on the left. thanks BAC for making it available.
Galatians 3:29 And if ye [be] Christ's, then are ye Abraham's seed, and heirs according to the promise.
Only if by "expert" you mean "clumsy."
BAC, maybe I wasn't clear in my posts above. The technical term for what you have been doing for the past three days is called "pulling facts and figures out of your ass". What you want to do is start a contest to see who can pull the most facts and figures out of their ass the fastest. This allows you to obfuscate important issues and advance your agenda in a dishonest manner - but you know this. Were I to pull enough facts and figures out of my ass, I could prove that I was Ron Brown and that I was still dead. And everyone knows this. Hence, nobody here is impressed with your tactic. Is that more clear?
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What boggles my mind is that in the WTC debate, BAC refuses to accept any information from a person with a doctorate in physics because he isn't a metallurgist. He refuses to accept eye witness testimony from firemen and cops because they are only firemen and cops and not trained explosive experts. Yet at the same time, in this debate, BAC accepts as gospel information from a blogger who appears to have no training whatsoever in epidemiology, and who's expertise appears to be that he collects old mathematics textbooks. Truly insane.
don't underestimate BAC. he is a very formidable opponent in any argument. (I should know - I'm the one who first started calling him BAC). BAC has NEVER lost an argument. He will not admit that he's wrong. He will always spam you with information even extremely detailed information. He will not quit arguing under any circumstances. Unless the other guy quits first. therefore, he always wins. no matter what. By the way BAC - that is a great photo of you above. wish I had badeye's picture.
Galatians 3:29 And if ye [be] Christ's, then are ye Abraham's seed, and heirs according to the promise.
Yes, I am very aware of BAC's MO. However, when he's forced to post opinions from a blog whose owner's expertise is that he collects old math books, he's lost the argument. It matters not that he will not or cannot accept that fact. It will be more than plain to anyone lurking on this thread that he's grasping at straws.
lol
It shouldn't be lost - for a single minute - that a key function of disinformationists such as BAC is to muddy the waters and damage the reputations of serious posters, for the benefit of any casual surfers or serious researchers who might look to these forums for ideas and/or material.
Any moment now, BAC will suggest another equally absurd alternative, and then obstinately argue that Bush really could have meant to suggest that means of delivery: tugboat, or cruiseship, or email, for instance. However, he has brought 350 post threads to 4um.
So who is paying BAC?
Good question. I doubt that we'll ever know.
I say nobody. BAC is only dangerous when he's on your side. Goldi figured that out. Kicked him off LP for being a kook. Sort of like kicking one of the monkeys out of the cage for chittering and flinging monkey dung. There was just something about him that drew her attention. Then he comes over here and alienates everyone in a couple of hours. Demonstrating how much he sucks as an advocate. So who's going to pay a boob like BAC when they can get a nice grad student who would actually convert people to the cause?
Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin
The issue BAC wants to avoid is that these were all killed at the hands of American War Crimes. The numbers matter little, whatever they are. He's sucking posters into the abyss of "details." (Disinformation tactic)
True enough, but maybe his employers don't bother to check his work.
Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush BAC, what are you going to do about that imposter who is impersonating you and posting as BeAChooser?
Go on Diana ... quote EXACTLY what Bush (or any administration official) said that makes you think they said missiles could be launched from Iraq and hit the US in 45 minutes. That is what you very clearly claimed. If you can't, then I think you either misunderstood what was said or it is you were the one playing word games.
The problem with you and your friend, Halek, is you apparently can't be troubled to actually read what I posted. For example, didn't you see this? http://www.iq.undp.org/ILCS/PDF/Analytical%20Report%20-%20English.pdf It's a study by the UN Development program which found that the 2004 Lancet study was off by about a factor of 4. The UN found after the first year that there were 24,000 war-related deaths (18,000-29,000, with a 95% confidence level), which is approximately 1/4th the number of excess deaths the Les Roberts and his John Hopkins team claim they found with their survey. And the UN used similar techniques - clusters, etc. - but with a much larger data set. Didn't you see the citations to the UN and WHO studies done before the invasion that were blessed by the same journal that peer reviewed Les Robert's study? Didn't you see that they found much larger pre-war mortality rates than Les Robert's study came up with (7-8 per 1000 per year versus 5 per 1000 per year). Surely you aren't trying to dispute that fact because if you are then it shows you not only haven't read my posts you are very unfamiliar with the literature on this topic. That number is a key parameter in determining the excess deaths. If this number is actually closer to 7 or 8 then 5 or 5.5, then the number of excess deaths drops dramatically. You aren't fooling anyone with this tactic, Halek. You haven't addressed a single FACT I listed in post #123. Don't think that readers of this thread won't notice that. You don't like the blog I've been posting from most recently? Don't want to read it? Fine with me. I don't care. I'm not trying to convince you or the others posting on this thread. I know that's hopeless. But some of the forums lurkers may read what I post. Here's a nice summary the blog author did of what he found. I haven't found anything wrong with it: ************************ Update: Here's more from a real-life statistical researcher, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal: http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009108 Iraqi Death Survey Wrap-Up After re-reading the articles by Steven E. Moore, in the Wall Street Journal and Iraq Body Count, as well as perusing the comments on many other blogs, I've decided that one last post might be in order on this topic. I'll break my observations down into three broad topics: 1. The construction of the survey (I also add, here, that Iraq Body Count's criticism of the results of the study, based on what I would describe as face validity, seem to me to be very compelling. I won't address those issues, as I'm in no way competent to offer an analysis that could compete with that of Iraq Body Count.) 1. The construction of the survey: A) Steven Moore makes much of the fact that 47 clusters were used, and this is far too small, given the extremely non-uniform distribution of violent deaths in Iraq. He may well be right; he's certainly more experienced in surveying techniques than am I. Several opposing voices have pointed out that Mr. Moore himself has used only 75 clusters in similar situations, and others have used 150, or whatever. This sort of analysis quickly gets out of the realm of statistics and into polemics and name-calling. My problem with the number of clusters has to do with the assumed stratification of the population. This survey was, at the top level, a stratified survey. Iraq was divided into its Governorates, and the number of clusters chosen per Governorate was decided by population. Evidently, the authors had reason to believe that there might be significant differences in death rates between Governorates (which was confirmed by their own results.) Unfortunately, in all but two Governorates, three or fewer clusters were selected from that Governorate. In several cases, only a single cluster was selected. How can one possibly control for the possibility of getting a very unrepresentative cluster, when a sample of a single cluster is used? The authors say that they did comparisons between clusters and within clusters. Within clusters, I'll grant you. But between clusters? Evidently between clusters from different strata. This makes no sense. If you stratify a population, it is because you are assuming, a priori, that there may be significant differences between strata (Governorates.) You can't then turn around and compare between strata to attempt to identify, or compensate for, a single cluster as being representative or unrepresentative of that particular stratum. In the famous words of Kwame Nkrumah upon his removal by coup as the first President of Ghana, "You can't compare one thing." When a stratified sampling is used, it is common practice to use a large enough sample to get several draws (even if each draw consists of a cluster of individual samples) from each stratum. B) The method of selecting named main streets, followed by named cross streets is certainly not random, and quite possibly not representative. I don't know much about what proportion or which streets are named in Iraq. But I have had several experiences which lead me to question whether the distribution of officially named and recorded main streets and cross streets is uniform enough to use as a basis for a random selection procedure. How many streets are named? In rural America, where I now live, the answer is "almost all." But even ten years ago, the answer was "most in some places, none in others." The change came about due to the 911 emergency calling system. Here in my town of 300, the locals laugh that a UPS guy can find your house from the address, but none of the citizens could. My official address is XYZ 3rd St. (has been officially so named for about 8 years), but if I want to tell anyone where I live, I have to say "the old Hoffman house." I would suspect that much of Iraq still doesn't have streets (main or cross) that would be listed in an official directory. Back when I lived in Liberia, we conducted health and demographic surveys in conjunction with the national vaccination campaigns. I was just a foot soldier, working the villages of Grand Cape Mount County, and have no idea how the cluster selection process was done, but I can guarantee that it wasn't done by street name. Outside of Robertsport, there wasn't a named street in all of the county. At that time, I would guess that fewer than 50 communities in the entire nation had named streets, and that, even in the most advanced places, like Monrovia, fewer than 50% of the population lived on a named street, and those who did, were distinctly non-representative on many levels. On the urban side, the most densely populated part of Monrovia was an area called West Point. I lived there for about two months. I estimated the population at the time at about 30,000 -and there wasn't a single street, named or otherwise, in the entire slum. I'm thinking Sadr City, Baghdad looks a lot like West Point, Monrovia in that respect. My guess is that the systematic selection of only named cross streets to named main streets as listed in an official directory will systematically exclude broad segments of the Iraqi population, namely the rural, the urban poor, and the internally-displaced refugees. Whether this systematic bias skews the survey results up or down or is neutral, I don't know, nor does anyone else (if they did, then why the hell would anyone be doing the survey?) The fact is, that it's bad statistical methodology to use a systematic selection method that consistently biases against particular large demographics. Several posters to Tim Blair's blog (see link below) brought up a further problem with the selection process. Although it's a bit unclear from the description in the articles, it appears that all of the clusters were chosen from a named cross street, at a distance fairly close to a main street. The report says that "a house was chosen at random," but does not specify how that random starting place was selected, or what the maximum distance from the main street the starting point would be. They (the blog posters) suggest that violence might be concentrated nearer the main streets and that therefore the incidence of violent deaths would be higher close to a main street. Again, there's no way to know that, but, again, systematic bias is bad practice, and can lead to results far outside of the "margin of error" (which, of course, is constructed assuming an absolute absence of non-sampling, or "methodological," error.) 2. The conduct of the survey: Here's where my analysis gets a bit dicey, but I've got to point out what I see, and here's where my experience of many years as a statistics teacher, supervising and grading student projects, leads me to grave doubts about what the survey teams actually did and didn't do. A) The response rates reported by the teams, in terms of their success at finding a head of household or spouse at home and willing to participate are just amazingly, extremely, insanely, unbelievably high, especially given the fact that the teams never once paid a second visit to a household, due to the dangers they were facing, working in a war zone, and apparently worked throughout the day, rather than confining their visits to times when respondents would be likely to be home (see the time constraint concern, below.) The authors report that in 99%+ of the households, someone was at home. They also claim that in only one cluster were any empty households found among the 40 adjacent households surveyed. They phrase it so as to insinuate that they are minimizing the death estimates: "Households where all members were dead or had gone away were reported in only one cluster in Ninewa and these deaths are not included in this report." This quote has become a favorite among some blogs as showing that, in fact, the real numbers must be much higher than those in the survey, since any annihilated households have been discounted. It's definitely true that the phrase "were dead or had gone away" followed by the "these deaths" clearly implies that the researchers have reason to believe that the former occupants of the households in question were all dead (without explicitly stating so.) But what bothers me is the implication that vacant houses were supposedly encountered in only one cluster in all of Iraq, and, by insinuation, none vacated by emigration. With estimates of over a million recent emigrants from Iraq entirely, and up to that many again internally displaced persons (together pushing 7% of the total population of Iraq), one would have expected to see more, and more widely distributed, vacant houses -even if no entire households had been annihilated. The next question becomes, what's the difference between a "household where all members were dead or had gone away' and the"16 (0.9%) dwellings [where] residents were absent.' The latter evidently includes households where the surveyors believed that someone was still living, but no one was home when they knocked (or so I'm guessing.) In any event, the fact that 7% or more of Iraqis have vacated their homes (for other parts of Iraq, or other parts of the world, or Heaven,) and yet that less than 1% of the households surveyed found no one at home, is very suspicious to me. If nothing else, it calls into question the representativeness of the sampling. The <1% "not at home," even absent the contributing concerns, raises all kinds of red flags for me. B) Among those that were at home, only "15 (0.8%) households refused to participate." Given the purported methodology of the survey, this must also include any households where some members were home, but not the head of household or spouse, since we're guaranteed that the head of household or spouse were the only ones questioned. So we're left (combining A and B) with the astounding result that in more than 98% of the attempted contacts, the head of household or spouse was at home and willing to participate in the survey, and this, without a single call-back, since attempting a second contact with a household was deemed too dangerous for the survey teams. What makes these results doubly surprising is that the surveys must have been conducted throughout the day, in order to accomplish 40 surveys per day (see below.) So, somehow, a total of 15 or fewer "Dad's at work (or the Mosque or wherever), Mom's at the market" responses in over 1700 attempts. It's quite possible that 15+ years of teaching Introductory Statistics and similar courses has left me a bit jaded, but I know that I'd be calling these survey teams into my office, with some serious questions about what they actually did or did not do, before accepting any of their results. C) The time spent per survey belies the notion that great care was taken to insure the interviewees' comprehension of the questions and the interviewers' assurances of accuracy in the answers. According to the article, the survey teams "could typically complete a cluster of 40 households in 1 day." The survey teams reportedly consisted of 4 members each, two male and two female. It is not stated how or whether the teams split up in conducting the interviews. From what I've heard about Islamic culture, it would seem likely that they would not have gone out individually, given that some women might be reluctant to speak to a single man, and vice versa. So, if we assume that they split up into two pairs of one male, one female doctor each, then each pair was interviewing 20 households in a day. Even assuming 8 hours per day for fieldwork, this leaves less than 24 minutes per interview (less than because it takes some time to walk from house to house.) Based on my own experiences with face-to-face interviewing, this would be maybe 15 minutes for the actual survey questioning (there's always a cushion for formalities, pleasantries, getting settled and whatnot.) Somewhere in there, also, the interview teams had the time to reassure the interviewees of their honesty and good intentions, and double-check any questionalbe results. Read what the article claims went on at each interview: "The survey purpose was explained to the head of household or spouse, and oral consent was obtained. Participants were assured that no unique identifiers would be gathered. No incentives were provided. The survey listed current household members by sex, and asked who had lived in this household on January 1, 2002. The interviewers then asked about births, deaths, and in-migration and out-migration, and confirmed that the reported inflow and exit of residents explained the differences in composition between the start and end of the recall period. .... Deaths were recorded only if the decedent had lived in the household continuously for 3 months before the event. Additional probing was done to establish the cause and circumstances of deaths to the extent feasible, taking into account family sensitivities. At the conclusion of household interviews where deaths were reported, surveyors requested to see a copy of any death certificate and its presence was recorded. Where differences between the household account and the cause mentioned on the certificate existed, further discussions were sometimes needed to establish the primary cause of death." Now, it's tough to compare different cultures, but when I worked on the health surveys in Liberia, we'd figure on maybe 3 or 4 good interviews per day, by the time we were satisfied that the interviewees were understanding the questions correctly and we were understanding the answers correctly (and we always had at least one interviewer who was a native speaker of the dialect.) Canned political surveys in America tend to take over 5 minutes each, even though the interviewees pretty well know what to expect in terms of the questions, and the surveyors have no need to verify things like death certificates. So, 15 minutes or so per survey? I guess it's possible, since some might be very easy ("All six of us have lived here for many years, and no one has died"), but I'm suspicious whether the implied care was actually taken in the interview process. D) Due to safety concerns, the survey teams were apparently allowed great latitude in changing the pre-determined cluster to a more convenient one. In terms of statistical validity, this point is crucial. The article states: "Decisions on sampling sites were made by the field manager. The interview team were given the responsibility and authority to change to an alternate location if they perceived the level of insecurity or risk to be unacceptable." The authors give us no information about how often these changes were forced to be made, and absent that information, this survey is, simply, worthless. No amount of advanced statistical massaging can fix a sampling of convenience. So, did the violence in Iraq force one change, two changes, forty changes? We don't know. But what we do know is that there is a clear admission of selection bias in the sampling. Given the sectarian tensions in Iraq, even granting the alleged professionalism of the canvassing teams, it is impossible to tell the impact of these biases. The implication in the report is clearly that more deadly areas were underrepresented, but were more distant (possibly safe) areas also selected against because of the level of risk required to reach them? Were teams of Shia (resp. Sunii) doctors afraid to enter areas where they thought themselves unwelcome? Did coalition roadblocks or bombing campaigns lead to certain areas of the country being off-limits? I find it very troubling that while the authors of the article go out of their way to mention anecdotes like the fact that households where everyone was killed were not counted, and that some interviewees may have been afraid to admit that they have had family members killed, this essential bit of information ("how often were the survey teams forced to deviate from the pre-determined cluster, and what procedures did they implement to attempt to insure that an equally representative cluster was selected") was left out of both the article, and the appendices (at the versions I've found. I'd appreciate it greatly if someone could point me to this information, if it's published.) Once again, it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that any deviations would lead the estimates to be low (this is clearly the authors' implication in their wording: "if they perceived the level of insecurity or risk to be unacceptable"), but any deviations of this sort remove the survey from the realm of statistical science, into the realm of conjecture, anecdote or advocacy. E) Given the freedom apparently allowed the survey teams to deviate from pre-selected cluster sites, and to determine the starting point for the cluster (on the street), as well as the above-mentioned concerns about veracity, the fact that there were only two survey teams involved in the entire survey, and that these teams had only two days of training, leads to the fact that any selection bias introduced by the survey teams will skew the results greatly, all in the same direction. If there were many teams, we might expect that some might be making selections that (consciously or unconsciously) minimize the reported number of deaths, while others might be making selections that maximize them, and others might be making selections that were essentially neutral. Given that there were only two teams, these biases have much less chance of canceling each other out, and much greater risk of increasing the actual margin for error. Dr. Donald Berry, the chairman of the Applied Statistics and Bioscience Department at the University of Texas-Austin, put it this way: "Selecting clusters and households that are representative and random is enormously difficult. Moreover, any bias on the part of the interviewers in the selection process would occur in every cluster and would therefore be magnified. The authors point out the possibility of bias, but they do not account for it in their report." (see link below) 3. The analysis of the results: Here's where the article is apparently on its most solid ground, but since none of the methodology involved in the analysis has been published, it's hard to say. I'm guessing that this would be what any peer review would concentrate on, and given the quality of statistical software, it's hard to make mistakes in statistical analysis. I'd be surprised if there were any grave flaws in analysis that I could uncover made by a PhD in statistics, which I definitely am not. As Mark Chu-Carrol notes at GoodMath/BadMath, it's surprisingly in this area where most of the attacks have concentrated, and, consequently why most of the attacks can be dismissed as failures on the critics' part to understand statistics. Be that as it may, the authors do provide enough detail for me to find one criticism in their analysis, which they themselves allude to, but attempt to minimize: "The population data used for cluster selection were at least 2 years old, and if populations subsequently migrated from areas of high mortality to those with low mortality, the sample might have over-represented the high-mortality areas." "[I]nternal population movement would be less likely to affect results appreciably [than emigration from Iraq.]" As I pointed out in an earlier post (Part VI), the effects of faulty population estimates (due to massive internal migration) can have considerable impact on the extrapolations, because they have essentially double impact -first in making some more violent areas more likely to be sampled than their current populations would warrant, and then again, in calculating the estimates, since the same inflated numbers would be used to multiply out the projected values. Supporters of this study have latched onto this criticism, accepting it (for the sake of the argument) and then pointing out that even still, it would only lower estimates by a few percent (even lowering it by 25% would still leave the estimates many times higher than others, after all), and so I was a bit hesitant to bring it up, as providing an opportunity to ignore the other concerns that, if valid, go to the heart of any legitimacy whatsoever for this study. But, since I noticed it, and it seems a true potential for error, I'm pointing it out, again. My purpose, throughout this critique, is not to claim that particular errors in the study would lead the reported results to be too high, or too low, or balance out. As I always tell my students, if you really knew the effect of a bias, there'd be no need to do the study to begin with. You could just use your amazing reasoning powers and puzzle out how many deaths there really have been in Iraq, due to the Coalition's actions, and then yell at everybody about how smart you are, and then they'd all believe you. My purpose is to point out the places where this study failed to use good statistical methodology, and to show up evidence that leads me to conclude that the survey teams' reports, themselves, are suspect. These suspicions (about the survey teams) are not necessarily grounds to deduce intentional bias. From personal experience, I know that many amateur data collectors under-report the difficulties they have in obtaining responses, believing that a higher non-response rate reflects negatively on their own skills, and over-report things like how many deaths they were able to validate by certificate for the same reason. Further, the less thorough the interview process, and I' ve pointed out how quickly they must have been conducted, the more the interviewers' biases influence the reported responses, even when the survey teams believe they are recording the results fairly. Finally, given the extremely high sectarian tensions in Iraq, it would seem unlikely that a mere two teams of 4 physicians each, given a high degree of selection autonomy, would produce unquestionably unbiased results under the hectic conditions they were experiencing in Iraq. Two final notes about those death certificates: 1. The authors, it seems to me, do a good job of explaining why we would expect to see a high discrepancy between the number of death certificates that family can produce, and the number of officially recorded deaths at the national level. What they do not address, is why no attempt was made to double-check the totals locally, at least in areas of less chaos. This would have provided a good check on the representativeness of their sample. Steven Moore makes a similar point, regarding basic demographic information (which a bunch of his critics in the blogs have misunderstood entirely.) Had the surveyors conducted a basic survey of demographic data per household (men, women, old, young, whatever), this could have been used to compare with the other population estimates to get a check on whether their particular clusters were, at least in these respects, representative. Instead, they were left, far too often, with no legitimate means of checking for representativeness of a particular cluster. 2. The question must be addressed as to whether there would be any incentive for Iraqis to falsify death certificates. I don't know the answer to this. But it is an important question. Given the corruption, chaos and confusion that is a fact of life in Iraq today, it would be very easy to forge death certificates, and if there is any market for such forged documents, we must assume that they exist in great numbers. Are coalition forces making cash payments for collateral deaths? Are families hiding members for their own safety by falsifying death records? I don't know the answer to these questions, but it would be foolish to accept the validity of the certificates without an analysis of the incentive to falsify them. Again, I speak from experience with West African nations, where the levels of corruption and confusion are probably not as high as currently in Iraq, but where, if there's a need for an official document, it can always be created, for the right price. ******************
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#327. To: Christine (#323)
#328. To: BeAChooser (#321)
#329. To: BeAChooser (#323)
#330. To: SKYDRIFTER (#305)
BAC's persistence is almost strange. He has to be here "...on paid assignment," as no one insane would suffer the treatment which he begs & receives.
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)
#331. To: Robin, Brian S, Christine, Honway, Aristeides, Diana, All (#330)
#332. To: SKYDRIFTER (#331)
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)
#333. To: BeAChooser (#323)
#334. To: Robin, Brian S, Christine, Honway, Aristeides, Diana, All (#332)
The entire Bush Cabal, including Rove's minions, are all opportunists. Just like Hitler, and every other tyrant in history.
#335. To: SKYDRIFTER (#334)
BUT - as with Hitler, no one is listening to the generals.
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)
#336. To: BeAChooser, All (#289)
However other posters have now given you proof that it was said and by whom.
#337. To: BeAChooser (#280)
And by the way, I'm going to post even more URLS to sources that are critical of the John Hopkins/Lancet study.
#338. To: BeAChooser (#289)
More than likely it was said by someone on the left trying to create an issue ... just as it was the left who created the issue of Iraq being an "imminent" threat. The Bush administration never said that and Bush specifically said in his pre-war SOU speech that Iraq was NOT an "imminent" threat.
#339. To: BeAChooser (#280)
#340. To: Hayek Fan, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#339)
#341. To: Diana (#336)
You see all of us as cookie-cutters of one another, all being exceptionally stupid and dull, objectifying all of us.
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)
#342. To: BeAChooser (#277)
"The danger to our country is grave. The danger to our country is growing. The Iraqi regime possesses biological and chemical weapons. The Iraqi regime is building the facilities necessary to make more biological and chemical weapons. And according to the British government, the Iraqi regime could launch a biological or chemical attack in as little as 45 minutes after the order were given." George W. Bush
#343. To: leveller, Brian S, Christine, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, All (#342)
#344. To: ..., bluedogtnx, scrapper2, Burkeman1, Halek Fan, ALL (#297)
If the articles really suupported your argument, you would be waving the text in our faces and screaming for us to read them.
#345. To: ..., bluedogtxn, scrapper2, kiki, Halek Fan, Burkeman1, ALL (#299)
I think I will go with Johns Hopkins University
#346. To: BeAChooser (#344)
#347. To: BeAChooser (#345)
(Edited)
#348. To: Hayek Fan (#339)
(Edited)
Oh yeah, before I go. The John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is the number 1 ranked school of Public Health in the world. I find it hard to believe that they would risk this reputation in order to score political points and/or press an anti-war agenda.
#349. To: BeAChooser (#345)
#350. To: ..., Scrapper2, Diana (#349)
#351. To: SKYDRIFTER (#343)
BAC is quite expert
#352. To: BeAChooser (#345)
#353. To: scrapper2, Beachooser, all (#348)
#354. To: Hayek Fan, BeAChooser (#353)
What boggles my mind
#355. To: Red Jones (#354)
#356. To: leveller (#342)
"And according to the British government, the Iraqi regime could launch a biological or chemical attack [by canoe][by FedEx][by hot air balloon] [by carrier pigeon] in as little as 45 minutes after the order were given."
#357. To: Red Jones, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Diana, Kamala, All (#354)
#358. To: christine (#356)
"And according to the British government, the Iraqi regime could launch a biological or chemical attack [by canoe][by FedEx][by hot air balloon] [by carrier pigeon] in as little as 45 minutes after the order were given."
#359. To: SKYDRIFTER (#357)
key function of disinformationists such as BAC is to muddy the waters and damage the reputations of serious posters, for the benefit of any casual surfers or serious researchers who might look to these forums for ideas and/or material.
#360. To: leveller, Brian S, Christine, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, All (#359)
So who is paying BAC?
#361. To: SKYDRIFTER (#360)
So who is paying BAC?
#362. To: Zipporah, Brian S, Christine, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Diana, All (#346)
#363. To: Minerva (#361)
I say nobody. BAC is only dangerous when he's on your side.
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)
#364. To: BAC, BeAChooser, All (#98)
#365. To: Diana, ALL (#336)
I won't knit pick with you, it's impossible because my nature is not dishonest enough for me to be able to stoop to your level playing word games.
#366. To: Hayek Fan, scrapper2, kiwi, Burkeman1, bluedogtxn, ..., Diana, ALL (#337)
You've posted links to blogs. Why is it that you have no links to professional, peer reviewed research? Because it's not out there.
2. The conduct of the survey
3. The analysis of the results
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